PREVIEW | Paris-Nice 2025 stage 6 - Breakaway threat on day that on paper fits Tim Merlier; Jonas Vingegaard forced to recover from injuries

Paris-Nice is one of the most reputable and toughest stage-races in the World Tour calendar and every single year it hosts many of the world's best climbers, sprinters and classics riders. This year the race takes place from the 9th to 16th of March. We preview stage 6.

The sixth day of racing will be the final opportunity for the sprinters. A bunch finish at Berre-l'Étang is expected, but with 210 kilometers on the menu and a few climbs spread all throughout the course, there may be a surprise.

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Stage 6: Saint-Julien-en-Saint-Alban - Berre-l'Étang, 210.1 kilometers

Right at the start there is a small uphill drag and this, being the final opportunity for most riders in the race, could lead to a lot of attacks and a strong group forming. Throughout the day we have some ascents, but only the last one feels important. It will have an intermediate sprint at the top, it will be 900 meters long at 6% with 19.5 kilometers to go. Unlikely to make a difference, but riders will have to keep an eye.

Then, the expected sprint finish. It will be an urban one, not very technical, but with a few roundabouts to navigate. With 2.2, 1.9 kilometers to go and 600 meters to go there will be roundabouts. (Unlike the map shows, the riders won't go all around the roundabout, but cut it through the left). They will be small features where the peloton will line out, where speeds will be very high and so will positioning. The finishing straight is pan-flat and right by the sea.

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The Weather

Map Paris-Nice 2025 stage 6

Breakaway weather? It might be, the riders will find a strong northern wind at the start of the stage which then turns into a northwestern wind towards the end of the day. If you follow the map you realize that means the peloton will pretty much have a tailwind throughout the entire stage with meaningful force. This will make the possibility of a breakaway win a lot bigger than what it would usually.

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The Favourites

Tim Merlier - The big Belgian is without a doubt the strongest sprinter in this race and here it will also be hard to imagine anyone beating him IF it actually does come down to a bunch sprint. Quick-Step don't have the strongest of teams to control the race and they won't have too many allies after he has won so dominantly, but I think they will know exactly how they have to work to bring it back to a sprint.

Bunch sprint - If it does come down to a bunch sprint, where the wind won't be felt much, it should be a regular one. So the men with the most pure watts will be favoured and so we should expect the likes of Juan Sebastián Molano, Alberto Dainese and Arnaud Démare present who have done good so far in this race... Mads Pedersen is also in the list obviously although he's been doing a ton of work for Mattias Skjelmose; and of course Alexander Kristoff must always be considered although he hasn't been very sharp.

In the last sprint we had a surprise with both Emilien Jeannière and Hugo Page finishing on the podium with Merlier, so we can very well expect something of this sort to happen again. Axel Zingle, Michael Matthews, Max Walscheid, Samuel Watson, Tobias Lund Andresen, Ivan García Cortina, Cees Bol, Stanislaw Aniolkowski, Iui Leitão, Vincenzo Albanese and Timo Kielich are also men to consider.

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Breakaway - Yes, this is very possible on this day. As I've explained, the stage-long tailwind means we will see very fast speeds. The peloton will know this and will not let the gap ever grow above 2 minutes if they want to play it safe. But if the front group has some smart riders they can definitely play psychologically, taking it easy until the final hour of racing and then go all-out to try and survive with the tailwind.

You need the power to make this happen though, with quality riders who can sustain a high wattage for a long time, mostly in teams without big GC or sprint aspirations. I would put Mick van Dijke, Mauro Schmid, Joshua Tarling, Bruno Armirail, Stefan Bissegger, Matevs Govekar, Fred Wright, Lorenzo Milesi, Stefan Küng, Rémi Cavagna, Yevgeniy Fedorov, Owain Doull and Anthony Turgis all as riders who should have this ambition and they have the responsibility for themselves and their teams to attack and try to snatch the stage win.

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Prediction Paris-Nice 2025 stage 6:

*** Tim Merlier
** Mads Pedersen, Alberto Dainese
* Juan Sebastián Molano, Arnaud Démare, Emilien Jeannière, Tobias Lund Andresen, Mick van Dijke, Joshua Tarling, Stefan Bissegger, Stefan Küng, Rémi Cavagna, Anthony Turgis

Pick: Tim Merlier

How: Objectively speaking, a sprint and a victory for Merlier are still the most likely scenario.

Original: Rúben Silva

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