PREVIEW | Paris-Nice 2025 stage 6 - Breakaway threat on day that on paper fits Tim Merlier; Jonas Vingegaard forced to recover from injuries
Cycling
Paris-Nice is one of the most reputable and toughest stage-races in the World Tour calendar and every single year it hosts many of the world's best climbers, sprinters and classics riders. This year the race takes place from the 9th to 16th of March. We preview stage 6.
The sixth day of racing will be the final opportunity for the sprinters. A bunch finish at Berre-l'Étang is expected, but with 210 kilometers on the menu and a few climbs spread all throughout the course, there may be a surprise.
Right at the start there is a small uphill drag and this, being the final opportunity for most riders in the race, could lead to a lot of attacks and a strong group forming. Throughout the day we have some ascents, but only the last one feels important. It will have an intermediate sprint at the top, it will be 900 meters long at 6% with 19.5 kilometers to go. Unlikely to make a difference, but riders will have to keep an eye.
Then, the expected sprint finish. It will be an urban one, not very technical, but with a few roundabouts to navigate. With 2.2, 1.9 kilometers to go and 600 meters to go there will be roundabouts. (Unlike the map shows, the riders won't go all around the roundabout, but cut it through the left). They will be small features where the peloton will line out, where speeds will be very high and so will positioning. The finishing straight is pan-flat and right by the sea.
The Weather
Breakaway weather? It might be, the riders will find a strong northern wind at the start of the stage which then turns into a northwestern wind towards the end of the day. If you follow the map you realize that means the peloton will pretty much have a tailwind throughout the entire stage with meaningful force. This will make the possibility of a breakaway win a lot bigger than what it would usually.
The Favourites
Tim Merlier - The big Belgian is without a doubt the strongest sprinter in this race and here it will also be hard to imagine anyone beating him IF it actually does come down to a bunch sprint. Quick-Step don't have the strongest of teams to control the race and they won't have too many allies after he has won so dominantly, but I think they will know exactly how they have to work to bring it back to a sprint.
Bunch sprint - If it does come down to a bunch sprint, where the wind won't be felt much, it should be a regular one. So the men with the most pure watts will be favoured and so we should expect the likes of Juan Sebastián Molano, Alberto Dainese and Arnaud Démare present who have done good so far in this race... Mads Pedersen is also in the list obviously although he's been doing a ton of work for Mattias Skjelmose; and of course Alexander Kristoff must always be considered although he hasn't been very sharp.
In the last sprint we had a surprise with both Emilien Jeannière and Hugo Page finishing on the podium with Merlier, so we can very well expect something of this sort to happen again. Axel Zingle, Michael Matthews, Max Walscheid, Samuel Watson, Tobias Lund Andresen, Ivan García Cortina, Cees Bol, Stanislaw Aniolkowski, Iui Leitão, Vincenzo Albanese and Timo Kielich are also men to consider.
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Breakaway - Yes, this is very possible on this day. As I've explained, the stage-long tailwind means we will see very fast speeds. The peloton will know this and will not let the gap ever grow above 2 minutes if they want to play it safe. But if the front group has some smart riders they can definitely play psychologically, taking it easy until the final hour of racing and then go all-out to try and survive with the tailwind.
You need the power to make this happen though, with quality riders who can sustain a high wattage for a long time, mostly in teams without big GC or sprint aspirations. I would put Mick van Dijke, Mauro Schmid, Joshua Tarling, Bruno Armirail, Stefan Bissegger, Matevs Govekar, Fred Wright, Lorenzo Milesi, Stefan Küng, Rémi Cavagna, Yevgeniy Fedorov, Owain Doull and Anthony Turgis all as riders who should have this ambition and they have the responsibility for themselves and their teams to attack and try to snatch the stage win.
Prediction Paris-Nice 2025 stage 6:
*** Tim Merlier
** Mads Pedersen, Alberto Dainese
* Juan Sebastián Molano, Arnaud Démare, Emilien Jeannière, Tobias Lund Andresen, Mick van Dijke, Joshua Tarling, Stefan Bissegger, Stefan Küng, Rémi Cavagna, Anthony Turgis
Pick: Tim Merlier
How: Objectively speaking, a sprint and a victory for Merlier are still the most likely scenario.
Original: Rúben Silva
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☀ Voici le parcours de #ParisNice 2025 !
— Paris-Nice (@ParisNice) December 17, 2024
☀Here is the route of #ParisNice 2025! pic.twitter.com/ynMCs4sVut
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- Agree, but just putting it in his head isn’t going to make it happen, or did he doubt himself too much during his 5 MSR attempts? Didn’t look like it.Jumpyjohn28-03-2025
- Marketing for dummiesJumpyjohn28-03-2025
- It's very refreshing and a welcome change of pace to hear a legend from the past share some positive and encouraging words to the now generation for a change. Thank you, Bernard Hinault.
santiagobenites28-03-2025 - And you know this how? Proof?frieders328-03-2025
- This guy lives his live in the past, must be fun for his grandkids.JoostMehrtens27-03-2025
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- Well said. It’s tough to compare across erasmobk27-03-2025
- The level of competition in every sport is so very much higher than it was in the 70s (I'm old enough to remember), and that's fine. You compete against the people you compete against. You win the race you're in, not a race of the past or of the future. Are there any world records from the 70s? Very few, I suspect. The way people train these days, the way they race these days, it's just different. And I am comfortable assuming the following: today's riders are faster and stronger than those of the past. It's a different profession, it's more professional, and that's fine. So is every sport. What de Vlaeminck did was totally amazing in his time, but in this era not only is it not needed (people earn enough without bonuses), it's also not enough (training prepares you for racing more than racing does). Eras change. It's okay. Who knows where we will be in another 50 years.RidesHills27-03-2025
- For once Tadej won’t be the favourite. Maybe that will allow him to be a bit more opportunistic. I doubt Tadej expects to win it this year. But I am sure he will plan a return.mobk27-03-2025
- The guy is only 24? So very very young. At this age, what was MvdP doing, but building up a team as well. He's right, he's an entertainer, and yes, I've been entertained. Between him and MvdP, I started watching XCC and XCO mountain biking (now I want to go to the Quebecois race in Mont Ste. Anne that are only a few hours away), just like WvA and MvdP pulled me into cyclocross a few years ago. Multi-disciplinary awesomeness is fun. Pidcock is his own rider, and I'm curious where he'll be in 5 years. It will be fun to wait and watch.RidesHills27-03-2025