Stage 3 (TTT): Auxerre - Auxerre, 27 kilometers
The riders do find a climb that is around 2 kilometers at 5% early on, and then another into the intermediate sprint which is around 4 kilometers at 4%. Not brutal ascents however in an effort such as this which is so carefully planned, teams need to think of how hard they should go up it. From the end there are still 13 kilometers to the finish and time can be gained or lost there.
These are flat, slightly downhill even, where having a big lineup is important. The approach back to Auxerre is rather technical and includes a final ramp that has some uphill gradients.
The Weather
Map Paris-Nice 2024 stage 3
Small chances of rain, but it is not overly likely. However the wind will be present and with some intensity, from the northeast. There will be a headwind in most of the first half of the TT, and then a cross-tailwind in the second half which is almost a perfect straight line back into Auxerre. Speeds very high in the second half, the real differences will be made at first, and teams should take that into consideration when gauging their efforts.
The Favourites
Soudal - Quick-Step - No beating around the bush, I expect Remco Evenepoel to soar on this day and help Quick-Step to a victory. The competition is strong but the Belgian team are experts in this discipline and have very strong time-trialists such as Mattia Cattaneo, Ilan van Wilder and Yves Lampaert to fly away. Overall however, every single rider in the team has good raw power or engine so there will be no slowing down.
BORA - hansgrohe - Primoz Roglic equally could well take BORA to a very strong level, but like Quick-Step the team does not have a weak member. Vlasov, Sobrero and Jungels can time-trial quite well; whilst powerhouses such as van Poppel, Denz and Haller are very good for the short bursts of power that are required at the front of the train even if for half or a third of the effort.
INEOS Grenadiers - INEOS are experienced but they also have the quality. Joshua Tarling is the team's main weapon and in his current form do not doubt that he will absolutely motor down the final kilometers. The team should protect Egan Bernal and Carlos Rodríguez at least, not as much an all-out sacrifice for one rider, but they can definitely thrive with other riders such as Jonathan Castroviejo and Laurens de Plus.
UAE Team Emirates - On paper, a super strong team, but UAE do not have the best history in TTT's. It's a matter of good tactics, if they nail it they can certainly win. João Amleida, Finn Fisher-Black, Brandon McNulty, Marc Soler and Jay Vine could all stay near the front into the end and do a really good time... It's a very strong lineup with no weak link as well, and if they perform as they did in the UAE Tour TT they can jump into the yellow jersey.
Some good times can also be expected of Team Visma | Lease a Bike, Lidl-Trek, Team Jayco ALula, EF Education-EasyPost and Movistar Team... Each having a few strong time-trialists who can propell them into decent results on the day, limiting the losses to top teams.
Prediction Paris-Nice 2024 stage 3:
*** Soudal - Quick-Step, INEOS Grenadiers
** BORA - hansgrohe, UAE Team Emirates
* Team Visma | Lease a Bike, Lidl-Trek, EF Education-EasyPost, Movistar Team
Pick: Soudal - Quick-Step (Remco Evenepoel specifically)
