PREVIEW | Paris-Nice 2023 stage 1 - Merlier, Bennett and De Lie the main favourites for tricky sprint stage

Preview. The Race to the Sun! From the 5th to 12th of March 2023 the peloton will take on a journey from the north of France to the very southeastern tip in a race that is packed with opportunities for the climbers, sprinters and classics riders to succeed right before the main spring classics.

The opening stage will start and finish in La Verrière and will be the first opportunity for the sprinters to strike. It is a traditional Paris-Nice day where the sprinters have their opportunity on the opening day however the classics riders and puncheurs have not been forgotten. It's a circuit finish around the town, there will be no surprises when it comes to the course towards the end but it could be a very explosive day!

Start Time: 13:00CET

Finish Time: 16:55CET

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Stage 1: La Verrière - La Verrière, 169.4Km

The circuit features two ascents, the most crucial being the third category Côte de Milon-la-Chapelle. 500 meters at 11.6% and it summits with 20.5 kilometers to go. Perhaps too short and distant from the finish to actually split the peloton much, but attacks may pop, the race can be deorganized and much tougher.

Another hilltop coincides with an intermediate sprint only 6 kilometers from the finish. It is 1.5 kilometers long at 4.7%, again attacks may take place and the GC riders may eye the bonus seconds. From there on there is no descent to recover, but instead a flat finale. A bunch sprint remains likely, rather technical with three corners in the final kilometer, the final straight is 500 meters long.

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Stage 1 Finale

Stage 1 Finale

The Weather

Paris-Nice stage 1 map

Cold temperatures and a slight breeze from the north. It won't bother the riders much, but the cold is likely to be a constant throughout the week.

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The Favourites

Arnaud De Lie - The man in form. De Lie has been rocking his performances everywhere he goes. There will likely be some days better suited to his skills, however he should not suffer in the ascents and he may take advantage of that towards a bunch sprint.

Tim Merlier - If the race is conservative it will benefit the Belgian the most. Merlier has been showing a lot of speed early in the year and he's got the pure speed necessary for such finale.

Sam Bennett - A mix, Bennett at his best level can easily thrive in such terrain but at times he struggles quite a lot uphill. I think either way he can survive here however. Bennett's strength lies on his leadout, with van Poppel, Haller and Mullen all present.

Most sprinters can on a good day easily get through the hilltops. Even on a not so good day however the likes of Mads Pederen, Bryan Coquard and Michael Matthews will enjoy the uphill gradients. Jonathan Milan and Cees Bol have shown great uphill form this early season as well, and could perhaps take some advantage from it.

Olav Kooij, Arnaud Démare, Alexander Kristoff, Kaden Groves and Max Kanter are all sprinters expected to be in the battle for the win or the top places. Quality fast men they will be ambitious this week in the bunch finishes.

A late attack being successful towards the end isn't impossible. The roads won't be too hard however so only a select few would be successful, as the sprinter teams are likely to not be far from their full power. The likes of Soren Kragh Andersen, Stefan Küng, Matteo Trentin and Omar Fraile are worthy outsiders.

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Prediction Paris-Nice 2023 stage 1:

*** Tim Merlier, Sam Bennett
** Arnaud de Lie, Mads Pedersen, Olav Kooij
* Bryan Coquard, Michael Matthews, Arnaud Démare, Alexander Kristoff, Kaden Groves, Max Kanter

Pick: Tim Merlier

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