Preview. The Race to the Sun! From the 5th to 12th of March 2023 the peloton will take on a journey from the north of France to the very southeastern tip in a race that is packed with opportunities for the climbers, sprinters and classics riders to succeed right before the main spring classics.
This is a race that will contain a team time-trial, two opportunities for the pure sprinters, two stages where both sprinters and classics riders can succeed, two stages where both puncheurs and climbers can thrive, and a high mountain stage where only the GC men and strong climbers will be able to deal a blow.
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Profiles & Route Paris-Nice 2023
The opening stage will start and finish in La Verrière and will be the first opportunity for the sprinters to strike. It won't be an uncontested finish however as there is a ramp of 500 meters at 12% summiting with just 6 kilometers to go, however besides that bump there is nowhere else where differences can be made and it shouldn't be too complicated of a race to control.
Stage two from Bazainvlle to Fontainebleau will be an easier day, and one where the fast men should have no opposition. Team time-trials are becoming more and more rare in pro cycling. However, the Paris-Nice organizers were keen on making a change, and the third day of racing will do just that. It isn't a short one either, 32.2 kilometers around Dampierre-en-Burly which will create meaningful differences for the overall classification.
Stage four will be another important day for the GC. Not one where the race will be won, but the race can be lost on the climb to La Loge des Gardes. Here we should have a good idea of who has the legs to fight for the victory, podium and such. The final ascent will have 6.7 kilometers at 7.1%. The fifth stage of the race is one very suited to a breakaway. It'll be an interesting mix of breakaway action, classics riders possibly attacking and the sprinter teams trying to keep it all together. The finale will be in Saint-Paul-Trois-Châteaux and it comes after a couple of hilltops. The start of the stage features several small ascents.
Stage six won't be too different. It's an explosive day where once again the classics riders can clash with the sprinters. However there will be some serious climbing here with the ascent of the Côte de Cabris being 8,5Km long at around 6% with very high gradients in the middle. The ascent to the Côte de la Colle-sur-Loup which summits with 28,5 kilometers to go sees the riders climb 1.8 kilometers at 10%. It is more than enough to create gaps, however it is a day where the GC riders may prefer to save their legs, ahead of the decisive weekend. Following that climb the terrain will be up and down all the way into the finish.
Stage seven is the queen stage and a quite simple one. It is a short day on the bike which starts in Nice, and will see the long but not steep ascent of the Côte de Tourette-du-Château which is 17.8 kilometers at 4.6%. However all will come down to the summit finish at the Col de La Couillole which is 15.7 kilometers at 7.1%. Big differences will be made and the yellow jersey will be on the line.
The traditional final stage in Nice will wrap up the race. The general classification can and likely will play out in this day. A breakaway can also succeed here, and it's with no surprise as the stage features only 118 kilometers and five similar categorized climbs, all followed by descents which are frequently technical.
6,2Km at 5.8%, 5.4Km at 4.5%, 6.5Km at 5.8% and the final two ascents: Côte de Peille which has 6.6Km at 6.9% and the hardest vertent of the Col d'Éze which is 6.2Km at 7.6% (with some 1.9Km at 10.7% in the middle). It's always a very dangerous day and a lot can change in the mountains around Nice, where the riders will come down to to end the race.
Estimated start and finish times for Paris-Nice:
Stage 1: 13:00 - 16:55CET.
Stage 2: 13:00 - 16:40CET.
Stage 3: 14:15 - 16:30CET.
Stage 4: 12:40 - 16:40CET.
Stage 5: 11:35 - 16:40CET.
Stage 6: 11:50 - 16:40CET.
Stage 7: 11:00 - 14:50CET.
Stage 8: 11:55 - 14:50CET.
The Favourites
Tadej Pogacar - The big favourite. No matter how you phrase it Pogacar is the man to beat, having shown terrific form in the start of the year - despite claims that he was not in his best. Clasica Jaén Paraiso Interior and the Vuelta a Andalucia were dominated by UAE, here he will have Tim Wellens present but an overall very modest lineup behind him in the mountains.
Jonas Vingegaard - Vingegaard has started his season at Gran Camino with very modest competition. Still, having won all three (classified) stages it is safe to say he's carrying good form. The Dane leads Jumbo-Visma however he will have very little mountain support in comparison with the normal presence. It will also mean a more direct one-on-one battle with Pogacar if it comes down to those two.
Simon Yates - A fresh start to the season. Simon Yates has been out of competition for over a month, but his start of the year at the Tour Down Under saw him win the queen stage and finish second in the overall classification. Last year he was close to toppling Primoz Roglic out of the yellow jersey on the final day, on his best form Yates will be very interesting to watch.
The race features a very heavy trio at the top. In terms of depth however it's a more modest Paris-Nice then usual. There is an interesting list however, featuring for example Neilson Powless, Mattias Skjelmose and Kévin Vaquelin who have been battling throughout the French circuit at Etoile de Bessèges and the Tour des Alpes Maritimes et du Var. It will be an interesting trio of outsiders, as will be Matteo Jorgenson who has recently taken a GC victory at the Tour of Oman.
On the other side you have some more experienced riders. Romain Bardet, Ion Izagirre and Jack Haig as good examples. David Gaudu has shown good form at the Faun classics and should have a very suiting route here in France. And as for INEOS they bring in Daniel Martínez and Pavel Sivakov leading a strong team, with the podium very much possible for the British team.
The Sprinters & Others
The race is relatively sprinter friendly with several opportunities for the fast men. Ahead of Milano-Sanremo and the spring classics there are several sprinters who will turn up to the French race. Tim Merlier, Sam Bennett, Arnaud Démare, Arnaud De Lie, Olav Kooij, Mads Pedersen, Kaden Groves, Bryan Coquard and Michael Matthews will be between the contenders for these days.
As for the cobbled and Ardennes classics, frequently it is Tirreno-Adriatico which attracts them the most, but several will be present here. Soren Kragh Andersen, Fred Wright, Max Schachmann, Stefan Küng, Christophe Laporte, Kasper Asgreen, Yves Lampaert and Tim Wellens are between them.
Prediction Paris-Nice 2023 overall classification:
*** Tadej Pogacar, Jonas Vingegaard
** Simon Yates, Daniel Martínez, David Gaudu
* Pavel Sivakov, Neilson Powless, Mattias Skjelmose, Kévin Vauquelin, Ion Izagirre, Romain Bardet
Pick: Tadej Pogacar
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