PREVIEW | Milano-Sanremo 2024 - Mathieu van der Poel and Tadej Pogacar fight for key monument; Pidcock, Ganna and Pedersen among favourites

Milano-Sanremo stands as the longest professional road race of the season and marks the first monument of the spring. A pivotal day in the cycling calendar, it attracts the world's top classics specialists and sprinters. Let's preview the upcoming action.

The biggest pro race in the calendar! Albeit having a slightly different route the 288 kilometers (plus neutral start) will heavily weigh on everyone’s legs by the end, which has it’s usual features except for the first climb of the day. The race’s traditional route through the Ligurian sea, includes the Tre Capi. No important attacks will come here, however the teams looking to make damage on the climbs may look to push the pace.

Capo Mele – 1,9Km; 4.2%; 52Km to go

Capo Cerve – 1.9Km; 2.8%; 47.4Km to go

Capo Berta – 1.8Km; 6.7%; 39Km to go

Quickly the riders will move on to the final and decisive features.

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The Cipressa is 5.6Km at an average gradient of 4.1% it doesn’t make for a particularly hard climb, but taking into account when the riders top it they’ll have over 6 hours of racing. It doesn’t usually see attacks, but it is a familiar image to see the teams with puncheurs, climbers and punchy sprinters to come to the front and push the pace, this year the climbers too.

The purest sprinters try to remain hidden, but always well positioned as the descent from Cipressa is very technical, so not only will there be the teams trying to suffocate the sprinters early on as there will be the fight for positioning before the climb and in the summit of it, making for a very nervous and fast section of the race.

And the final climb is the Poggio di Sanremo, the hardest easy climb in the world! Like everything in this race, it is influenced by the distance, 282Km raced at the summit. It is mostly a climb in false flat roads, starting with a set of bends still very near the sea, but in the last 800 meters the steepest ramp in it comes, a short one but 8% of gradient, and it’s a place regularly chosen by riders to make a final attack.

And just as important as the climb is the descent, it’s quite a technical one which allows some recovering after the climb, and it’s a big threat if anyone gets to the bottom solo, no surprise as in the base of it there are only 2200 meters to the line. This is where Matej Mohoric made his decisive attack in 2022 to victory.

The Via Roma will be the place where the winner will be crowned. The finish is familiar already, a flat straightforward road meaning leadouts and chasing are still very possible which is an advantage for the sprinters, but for that they need good support and a smart sense of positioning. And remember, a sprint after 7 hours of racing is different than after 4/5.

The Weather

The race will feature some sunny conditions and ultimately nice spring weather. The riders won't really face any meaningful windy conditions, rain or wet roads. It's all in the legs.

Poggio to decide the race

Mathieu van der Poel - Man of the moment... Two years ago van der Poel began his season here with a third place after an injury-ridden winter. Last year he looked in poor form at Tirreno-Adriatico and blew the competition appart at the Poggio. The reigning champion begins his season in the longest race of the season and I dare to say he can be the main favourite. Last season van der Poel proved to be an endurance monster. Now over year and a half without having injuries or illnesses keeping him back; training for months in the Spanish good weather for this exact kind of race... After what he showed last year in other races such as Roubaix but mainly the worlds, I know his explosivity will strike fear into the eyes of many. Even if he cannot make the difference uphill, in a sprint he will be a factor in whichever group. Soren Kragh Andersen thrived last year and could be quite a big weapon for the Dutchman as well.

Tadej Pogacar - Pogacar is the main competitor to van der Poel, and last year it was around the same situation. The man can do everything and even though these climbs are quite gentle for the Slovenian climber, he can still make the difference as he's shown last year. He will likely wait until the steepest section of the climb this time around, and perhaps look at van der Poel more instead of trying to force the race himself. UAE have Marc Hirschi, Isaac Del Toro, and Tim Wellens... They absolutely have the firepower to destroy the peloton beforehand. They could play tactical with Wellens or Del Toro at the bottom of the Poggio; that is not an unthinkable scenario and honestly I think both have the legs to win a race like this as well.

Mads Pedersen - Lidl has a monstruous lineup. Pedersen loves the long distances and the rolling climbs. Sanremo is a taylor-made race for the Dane and the American team are star-studded here... Former winner Jasper Stuyven as an example, but he will be in a domestique role. The team have Toms Skujins who is in the form of his life following a second place at Strade Bianche; who can be with the best uphill but also possibly help Pedersen into an hypotetical sprint scenario. But we've also got Jonathan Milan who is off the back of two wins at Tirreno-Adriatico, including a slight uphill finale. The Italian powerhouse can definitely ride climbs like this very well; he will not be a protected rider for the team, but if he is on a good day he will likely have a free role and could benefit from the possible sprint scenario.

INEOS - The British team is a superpower here, but that is only if their riders are in great form. Sanremo is not really a race where one can use depth; everyone will save their legs for the Poggio. But they pack a lot of heat here; this is not Tom Pidcock's most suitable race but if he reaches the finale with good legs he will be a danger specially with the technical descent to the finish. Add last year's second place Filippo Ganna, Jhonatan Narváez who had absolutely stunning form early in the season in Australia... Former winner Michal Kwiatkowski will be an experienced and strong domestique, as well as an outsider on a good day.

Christophe Laporte & Olav Kooij - Visma are the team most eager for a sprint to take place. With Wout van Aert gone, the team focuses their attention on the other two men who finished on the podium of the Europeans last year - Laporte and Kooij. Laporte loves these hilly and long races; he was best of the rest in the 2022 Worlds behind only Remco Evenepoel and has performed greatly over many races such as this. The team also gives freedom to Olav Kooij who has already won at the Clásica Jaén Paraiso Interior, UAE Tour and Paris-Nice this year. They will be an interesting duo, do not expect attacks but if they follow the wheels well enough, they can be a massive headache for the rest of the field towards Via Roma.

The race is likely to be decided on the Poggio and following kilometers. Classics riders and puncheurs have gotten more prominence here, and I believe that UAE at least will want to push the pace to the limit early on, and smash the race on the Poggio. We've got experienced riders and endurance monsters like Matej Mohoric, Julian Alaphilippe and Kasper Asgreen; riders currently in stupendous form such as Maxim van Gils and Benoît Cosnefroy... Add other riders who can climb and be threatening: Alexey Lutsenko, Laurence Pithie, Axel Zingle, Alberto Bettiol, Stefan Küng and Luke Plapp are interesting figures to follow.

Can the sprinters make it?

The race can end in a sprint. This is unlikely, it hasn't happened since 2016, but nowadays we've got sprinters that can climb very well, and teams who may opt for that strategy. Alpecin have Jasper Philipsen who they can gamble with; the Belgian was second in Paris-Roubaix last year so he definitely has the endurance and power for a race likes this. Former winners like Arnaud Démare and Alexander Kristoff are present; Others such as Michael Matthews have performed quite well over the years and ultimately; one of these can surprise as Gerald Ciolek did in 2014.

We've got other strong finishers who also have the climbing legs for such a race such as Biniam Girmay, Matteo Trentin, Corbin Strong, Marijn van den Berg, Danny van Poppel and Vincenzo Albanese. Add to these, riders such as Astana duo Cees Bol (who is given freedom in the absence of Mark Cavendish), Marius Mayrhofer and Soren Waerenskjold.

Prediction Milano-Sanremo 2024:

*** Mathieu van der Poel, Tadej Pogacar
** Mads Pedersen,
* Tim Wellens, Toms Skujins, Tom Pidcock, Filippo Ganna, Christophe Laporte, Matej Mohoric, Maxim van Gils, Jasper Philipsen, Michael Matthews

Pick: Mathieu van der Poel