PREVIEW | Giro d'Italia 2025 stage 20 - Colle delle Finestre will decide Giro d'Italia; Del Toro faces Carapaz and Yates
CyclingSaturday, 31 May 2025 at 10:32
The Corsa Rosa is the first Grand Tour of the season and this year it will include a start in a nation that will for the first time in it's history host a Grand Tour, Albania; and also several mountain stages in it's second half whilst the first half will feature some tricky stages including one that goes through a lot of the Strade Bianche course. We preview stage 20.
The queen stage? Many will say that exactly, it's a day with an easy start but the Giro organizers have saved the best for last. In 2018 over these climbs we saw the race turned on it's head as pink jersey Simon Yates cracked and Chris Froome stormed to the race lead with a huge solo attack. It doesn't look like it, as a lot of the stage looks flat, but there are 4400 meters of climbing, and it's a truly devastating finale to the race.
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Verres - Sestriere, 205 kilometers
The riders climb the Collle del Lys with 90 kilometers to go, and by this point some teams can truly set up attacks for later on, and drain the legs of their rivals through these rolling roads. Riders have seen what is possible as in 2018 the pink jersey himself crumbled completely, and so we know anything can happen.
Because then comes the insanely difficult Colle delle Finestre, an hour-long ascent which averages 9% for over 18 kilometers, 7 of which in gravel. It's going to decimate the peloton this late in the race. There's nowhere to hide, you need your very best level on this climb, or you can lose minutes. If that wasn't hard enough, the climb ends with still 28 kilometers to go.
The final climb to Sestriere then will be 16 kilometers long, the first half very gentle and on false-flat roads, but the final 10 kilometers average 5%... At altitude, after Finèstre and on stage 20, this may end up becoming one of the hardest ascents of the race, and will create the final overall classification differences.
The Weather
Map Giro d'Italia 2025 stage 20
Not much wind to mention, but there are some chances of rain. It could make the final descent more treacherous, and perhaps make the gravel more compact - no real effect in the racing, but visually it would look different.
The Favourites
Isaac del Toro - Today he survived, but the reality is he wasn't really tested today. Yes, Carapaz attacked in the final climb, but his move on the Col de Joux was not an all-out attack. UAE had the depth, they will continue to have, but now on Finestre the gradients are high enough to make the difference anywhere and Del Toro won't have the same comfort to follow the wheel - and his explosiveness won't be worth much. It's the final, but ultimate test for the Mexican. After these two stages, the confidence is higher, and now 45 do matter quite a bit, but he will still not be the strongest on paper.
Richard Carapaz - Carapaz couldn't distance Del Toro today, but he did continue to show his best level, which is a good sign ahead of tomorrow. Not having the team to destroy the race won't matter as much, EF and other teams will be able to make it hard enough early on and then have the road to make the difference one-to-one. The climb is long, steep, at altitude... Honestly it's Carapaz' terrain, and if he has the legs he will 100% attack.
Top 3 Fight - Today a separation looked to be clear, and we now have Simon Yates versus Derek Gee in the battle for the final podium spot. I don't think Yates, in regular conditions, will be able to win the Giro, but the decisive climb will not be explosive at all and so he will be in his ground. Gee looks to be a little better, but the steep gradients won't favour him.
Top 10 Fight - The exact same faces are present and the battle will be the same. From these riders I don't expect attacks anymore as this isn't a climb to attack, but to pace. No crazy Bernal, no surging Pellizzari... But all of them are expected to be up there and trying to gain time on the competition if they are able to. More importantly, these men can be important allies to the podium contenders after Finestre.
Breakaway - It will be hard, the finale is very very hard and I honestly do expect teams like EF and Israel at least to put men in the front of the peloton to keep a high pace throughout the day, they showed intention today - BORA perhaps as well. But the roads are very flat, if some teams are actually planning on controlling the breakaway it is actually an easy job.
Nevertheless, if a few strong climbers manage to get themselves in front, they can be a headache later in the day. Daniel Martínez, Antonio Tiberi, Jonathan Castroviejo, Louis Meintjes, Carlos Verona, Mattia Cattaneo, Filippo Zana, Romain Bardet, Wilco Kelderman, Lorenzo Fortunato, Christian Scaroni and Florian Stork are some of the big favourites.
Prediction Giro d'Italia 2025 stage 20:
*** Isaac del Toro, Richard Carapaz
** Simon Yates, Derek Gee
* Giulio Pellizzari, Damiano Caruso, Einer Rubio, Egan Bernal, Antonio Tiberi, Carlos Verona, Filippo Zana, Romain Bardet, Lorenzo Fortunato, Christian Scaroni, Florian Stork
** Simon Yates, Derek Gee
* Giulio Pellizzari, Damiano Caruso, Einer Rubio, Egan Bernal, Antonio Tiberi, Carlos Verona, Filippo Zana, Romain Bardet, Lorenzo Fortunato, Christian Scaroni, Florian Stork
Pick: Richard Carapaz
How: Solo win
Original: Rúben Silva
23 teams, one epic race: wildcards are locked in!💥 Who are you rooting for?📢
— Giro d'Italia (@giroditalia) March 31, 2025
23 squadre, una corsa epica: le Wildcard sono state assegnate!💥 Per chi fai il tifo?📢#GirodItalia pic.twitter.com/5qTRkk4KTP
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- A pathetic and infinitely stupid comment. It's a shame that defamation on the internet is still free. These defamers should be prosecuted.
maria2024202431-05-2025 - So you don’t respect athletes who will sacrifice their personal priorities for others? What is wrong with an MVDP deciding to quit a race he’s only participating in to help a team-mate because his personal objective was always a different event after causing a clash in preparation? Why should athletes be expected to adapt their program to the desires if spectators? It’s not as if you are paying him directly (be careful about answering that because it might trap you into having to justify hypocrisy with respect to general economic consumption). You say you admire and watch principally because of the excellence on show, in that case you should just accept and enjoy it when you see it and look for it elsewhere when some aren’t showing it? I often enjoy watching schoolkids or amateurs trying and racing as much as watching the best, it can be just as exciting, interesting, enjoyable, educational and impressive. Enjoy the moment. Everyone does something better than another.Mistermaumau31-05-2025
- Everything is debatable but you cannot just transplant a Merckx into the modern era. Almost every keen amateur today beats the best sportsmen of 100-150 years ago in almost every sport so if you want to make a comparison first you have to define what Merckx riding today means to you, the same guy born 70 years ago in a younger version with only the rivals, tech, knowledge, help, money, etc. of back then or the Merckx that would be born in 2000 if he hadn’t existed back then, with all the advantages. improvements, material available since then. For me a more interesting question would be to know if ge’d have been more or less motivated with today’s earnings, i.e. did the fact he had to race a lot to earn hus bread make him much better or would he have been better if he could have picked and chosen more because money wasn’t an issue? This obviously assuming he’d be able to have his attitude of back then in today’s very different world.Mistermaumau31-05-2025
- Cigar farmers.Renz31-05-2025
- This is probably the most accurate way of putting it, nobody knows what’s going to happen, am sure plenty of us are old enough to remember people saying Senna was going to be the greatest ever.Mistermaumau31-05-2025
- Merckx had more or less exactly the same situation as Pog with very capable rivals in each of his « specialities » only difference is that Pog doesn’t do hour records or track (which he’d probably not be that successful at).Mistermaumau31-05-2025
- Have they given del Toro the same, er... stimulants they give Pogacar?Ben31-05-2025
- Fingers crossed for Isaac, he only has to worry about Carapaz, I think Yates and Visma are spent, yesterday should have been Yates day. Doesn't matter what the team does, if he can't attack he can't put time into his rivals, it's up to him in the endslappers6631-05-2025
- I watch sporting events because I admire excellence. The sight of Tadej attacking with 50 kilometers to go and eventually winning solo is just as exciting to me as when MVDP beats him and Filippo Gana in a sprint. What's boring to me is when MVDP abandons a race because he feels he has nothing to gain by racing against Pogacar in a mountain stage, but would gladly hold his wheel for 300 kilometers because he knows he can beat him in a sprint finish. Or Jonas V deciding to skip the Giro because he fears the 21-days of racing would expose him to racing accidents which might derail his TDF participation. I admire competitors who try their very best even if the odds are stacked against them.FredMan31-05-2025
- He's mentioned his dislike of the gravel sections multiple times throughout the Giro. I'm starting to wonder if he actually dislikes them or if he just can't get the capitulation of 2018 out of his mind. Alternatively, like so many other people, he might just be knackered!Suipedali31-05-2025
Have they given del Toro the same, er... stimulants they give Pogacar?
A pathetic and infinitely stupid comment (why UAE gives stimulants to del Toro and not to his captain AYuso). It's a shame that defamation on the internet is still free. These defamers should be prosecuted.
Fingers crossed for Isaac, he only has to worry about Carapaz, I think Yates and Visma are spent, yesterday should have been Yates day. Doesn't matter what the team does, if he can't attack he can't put time into his rivals, it's up to him in the end
I hope we some attacks tomorrow - today was surprisingly passive
Finestre is a brutal climb according to the graphic. This Giro could be full of surprises tomorrow.
Who knows how del Toro will race over 2,000 meters in the steep, steep stuff. I have my fingers and toes crossed for him though.