Stage 20: Alpago - Bassano del Grappa, 184 kilometers
Early on, the riders climb the famous Muro di Ca' del Poggio. Far from the finish and possibly not important for the day's outcome, but a breakaway may still be formed in it's slopes. The climb is tremendously popular and, with 1.1 kilometers at 11%, can still see riders attack to try and jump across to the head of the race.
But the focus on the day is on the Monte Grappa. And what a beast it is. The ascent is 18.1 kilometers long at 8.1%, without any meaningful resting areas. It is by all means a gruesome climb and it's final 3.5 kilometers average almost 10%, and is where it's toughest ramp of 17% is located. All-in-all, it will destroy the peloton to bits. But this will only be the first of two. It first summits with 78Km to go.
Monte Grappa: 18.1Km; 8.1%; 78&31Km to go
Then, the riders climb up it's slopes once again which will ultimately be finished with 31 kilometers to go. This will be the final categorized climb of the Giro and with no doubt one of the hardest.
The descent is extremely technical and rather long. In fact, there is a very explosive 1.5-kilometer climb halfway through the descent which averages over 9%, an actually hard climb which is shadowed by the monster that comes before. In any way, differences can still be made in the dozens of hairpins of the downhill, which is 25 kilometers from top to bottom - and most of them, steep.
The riders end the descent only with 5 kilometers to the finish, that still go downhill a little bit. Very quickly the riders finish the stage in Bassano del Grappa, with the overall classification finally sealed.
The Weather
Map Giro d'Italia 2024 stage 20
No wind but rain will fall. Likely early on, but this can happen all throughout the day. This should make the already long and technical descents even more difficult and stressful as wet roads are expected. Nothing extreme, but it can make the day even harder and possibly make GC changes more possible.
The Favourites
Tadej Pogacar - The last time I ask this at the Giro... What will Pogacar want? I've read that because Pogacar never rode Grappa and it is close to the Slovenian border that he will be extra motivated to win there... The climb is 130 kilometers away from the border and 210 from Ljubljana... So I would expect some Slovenian fans to make the trip, but there won't likely be a special feeling on the mountain. The true argument for Pogacar is that it is a brutal stage with a relatively flat start. UAE should be able to control. But he also has the Giro in his hands and the Tour later in the summer. The Grappa descent will have to be ridden specially carefully on both occasions, which does favour the breakaway's chances (or who knows, a wild figure like Romain Bardet if he is on his best day).
GC Fight - I do not expect changes in or out of the podium. Daniel Martínez and Geraint Thomas should be safe under normal circumstances, and Thomas should try and move up to second as only 22 seconds separate them. INEOS and Thomas do prefer the longer climbs, but I do not see (at least I think they should not have) Thymen Arensman working, as he can also realistically jump to the Top5 and youth jersey. He will fight Antonio Tiberi. Both have a shot at fourth place, if Ben O'Connor remains ill - although today he looked good.
We have Romain Bardet in 7th, who has had very bad but also good days at this Giro. This position isn't overly important to him, and he's the kind of rider to take the risks. He, or DSM, may try to split the race on the first Grappa descent. Einer Rubio also looks to be in strong enough form to try and attack the race - but on the final climb, no extreme risks.
Can the victory go for the breakaway on this day? The Mur di Ca' del Poggio has to be attacked hard, as elsewhere it is not too hard to control. The climbers have to go all-out here, form a good group and build a few minutes before the first Grappa. This is the climb where
Nairo Quintana sealed his 2014 Giro win, long and steep... Just right for him. But on rainy conditions, long climbs and in the third week
Damiano Caruso can also do very well.
This late in the race Michael Storer has nothing to lose, and can jump into the Top10 with a successful breakaway. Perhaps Lorenzo Fortunato will also shoot his shot. UAE may give Rafal Majka the chance to join the front group, as the team and Pogacar specially want to reward him for his work.
Decathlon, off the back of another good win, can have the
Paret-Peintre brothers and
Alex Baudin fight for the stage win if they get themselves in front. This is a day for pure climbers, no exceptions and no surprises... We should see
Georg Steinhauser also give it a shot, alongside
Pelayo Sanchez, Giulio Pellizzari, Amanuel Ghebregzabhier and
Simon Geschke may also give it a good shot.
Prediction Giro d'italia 2024 stage 20:
*** Tadej Pogacar, Nairo Quintana
** Damiano Caruso, Georg Steinhauser
* Geraint Thomas, Daniel Martínez, Romain Bardet, Michael Storer, Rafal Majka, Valentin Paret-Peintre, Giulio Pellizzari, Pelayo Sanchez
Pick: Damiano Caruso
