Stage 14 (ITT): Castiglione delle Stiviere - Desenzano del Garda, 31 kilometers
This one is quite more simple than the first time-trial of the race however. Although not completely flat, it does feature some small ascents, it will be nothing crazy and nothing that will require small gears. A more constant effort where the specialists can really make the difference. This will be an important day for the overall classification and most likely change the overall classification around as well.
The Weather
Map Giro d'italia 2024 stage 14
A very slight breeze from the east which is unlikely to affect the outcome of the day. There is a slim possibility of some rain falling early in the afternoon which could hamper the early starters. However, there is no certainty on if or when it will fall; and it's unpredictability makes it difficult to predict who (if anyone) may be favoured.
The Favourites
Tadej Pogacar - Not the perfect day for him, Pogacar himself has admitted. Pogacar will be the strongest of GC contenders surely but here he will not have a climbing section as he had the other time around to make the difference. Here, just flat roads, to deal with the specialists against the clock. However he will not come burned out as he has now ridden within the limits for the past three mountain/hilly stages, and if there is anyone who can just beat everyone else it's the race leader.
Filippo Ganna - However I argue that the main favourite for the day will be Filippo Ganna. If the Italian does not win here, he will likely leave the Giro without a win to his name. That would be a disappointment, but it's not because of bad form. He's shown it both on road stages and the first time-trial - but the first one was too hilly for him to win against Pogacar. Here the scale points towards the heavyweight riders.
GC Fight - I don't expect the GC to change significantly. No big gaps have taken place since the last time-trial and so those who performed the best are already in the front places. I do expect a strong performance from
Geraint Thomas who may put
Daniel Martínez under pressure. They stand ahead of
Ben O'Connor and
Antonio Tiberi who will try to limit losses to the previous riders but will certainly extend it over most of the rest of the Top10.
Thymen Arensman, 10th, should move up to 6th as the gaps are quite small whilst every other rider will try to limit losses as much as possible in terrain that does not favour them.
A few other riders who are not focused in the GC have a good chance to perform on the day. The specialists Magnus Sheffield and Mikkel Bjerg are certainly those who stand the best chances. We've got Felix Grossschartner, Tobias Foss and Max Schachmann as riders who did well in the last one, but honestly this will be a day for the most powerful men.
Strong rouleurs such as points classification winner Jonathan Milan, Max Walscheid, Lorenzo Milesi, Ryan Mullen, Josef Cerny and Daan Hoole can do quite well on a day like this. Luke Plapp would also fit quite well in this list but he has been suffering with fatigue and I do not know if he will be at his best.
Prediction Giro d'italia 2024 stage 14:
*** Filippo Ganna, Tadej Pogacar
** Geraint Thomas, Daniel Martínez, Magnus Sheffield
* Antonio Tiberi, Thymen Arensman, Ben O'Connor, Mikkel Bjerg, Felix Grossschartner, Max Schachmann
Pick: Filippo Ganna
