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DISCUSSION | Whole CyclingUpToDate team on 2024 Tour de France: Thoughts on the winner; Pogacar; Vingegaard; Evenepoel; Roglic and more
CyclingFriday, 28 June 2024 at 12:41
The 2024 Tour de France starts this Saturday with a luxurious startlist including the world's best stage-racers, the best sprinters, the most popular riders and plenty questions; in a thrilling route that offers chances to everyone. The CyclingUpToDate team analysis and provides opinions on some of the most relevant questions ahead of the race.
This article has been developed with the support of all writers from partner sites: CiclismoAlDia (Spain); CiclismoAtual (Portugal); WielrennenUpToDate (Netherlands) and RadsportAktuell (Germany). You can follow all of these websites for content focused on each of these nations' most important topics.
Question 1 - Will Tadej Pogacar win the Tour?
Rúben Silva (CyclingUpToDate) - I think he will. I do think Visma and Vingegaard will throw a good fight and perhaps even be at their best, but I get the sense that he is even stronger than 2023. With such a strong team behind him too, I think he can do anything and won't feel the Giro in his legs.
Kieran Wood (CyclingUpToDate) - Yes. Barring any crash, illness or bad luck I can see no stopping a Pogacar win. This is cycling though, and any of the aforementioned incidents could just as easily end his hopes on stage one.
Ondrej Zhasil (CyclingUpToDate) - Yes. There's only one way he loses and I don't want to jinx.
Juan Larra (CiclismoAlDia) - Yes. I think he will be very strong after the Giro and his main rival Jonas Vingegaard completely out of shape. For me he is favorite.
Jorge Borreguero (CiclismoAlDia) - Yes.
VIctor Gonzalez (CiclismoAlDia) - I think he's the guy with most chances.
Carlos Silva (CiclismoAtual) - Any doubt about it? No.
Ivan Silva (CiclismoAtual) - Yes, but the final result will obviously be much tighter than the Giro. I estimate between 30s - 1m30s advantage to Primoz Roglic and about 2m to Jonas Vingegaard.
Filipe Pereira (CiclismoAtual) - I don't think so. I think the most likely scenario is for Pogacar to have at least one bad day. It happened in the past two TDF and it was always of grand proportions. As such, one bad day on which Pogacar loses up to 5 minutes feels like a scenario that ends his yellow jersey hopes, this year.
Mats Leering (WielrennenUpToDate) - Yes, I think Pogacar will win the Tour. Mainly due to the fact that all his rivals like Vingegaard, Evenepoel and Roglic have been injured and have not had optimal training.
Bram Coenen (WielrennenUpToDate) - Yes, without any doubt.
Dirk Linnemann (RadsportAktuell) - Yes.
Nicolas Gayer (RadsportAktuell) - Yes.
CyclingUpToDate's readers and writers equally believe Tadej Pogacar is the man to beat at the Tour. @Sirotti
Question 2 - Who will be the final podium of the Tour?
Rúben Silva (CyclingUpToDate) - Tadej Pogacar and Jonas Vingegaard to finish first and second, and I think Carlos Rodríguez for third. The Spaniard is performing so well in the high mountains this year and is so consistent that I think he will be best of the rest.
Kieran Wood (CyclingUpToDate) - Tadej Pogacar, Primoz Roglic, Jonas Vingegaard. As mentioned, I can't past a Pogacar win. Behind that it's a lot more intriguing though. Given the uncertainty around Vingegaard I think Roglic is the safest bet for Pogacar's closest challenger and although I've put Vingegaard in 3rd, if he's not fully at the level following his injury, Joao Almeida or Adam Yates would be my pick.
Ondrej Zhasil (CyclingUpToDate) - Now here it gets tricky. I expect another UAE rider (Almeida) in second and Roglic to round it up.
Juan Larra (CiclismoAlDia) - 1. Tadej Pogacar, 2. Jonas Vingegaard, 3. Primoz Roglic.
Jorge Borreguero (CiclismoAlDia) - Tadej Pogaçar (1st), Primoz Roglic (2nd), Carlos Rodríguez (3rd).
Victor Gonzalez (CiclismoAlDia) - Tadej Pogacar, Jonas Vingegaard and Primoz Roglic.
Carlos Silva (CiclismoAtual) - Tadej Pogacar, Primoz Roglic, Matteo Jorgenson.
Ivan Silva (CiclismoAtual) - Tadej Pogacar 1st, Primoz Roglic 2nd, Jonas Vingegaard 3rd. I think Pogacar and Roglic will gain big time on competition on the 1st and 2nd weeks and Vingegaard will gain back some time on the final week but not enough to go for the win.
Filipe Pereira (CiclismoAtual) - I believe Jonas Vingegaard, Primoz Roglic and Tadej Pogacar will be the final podium and I do so since the begining of the season. Vingegaard will eventually be at an A+ level and even when he isn't, he is probably better than most cyclists. Roglic is "Mr. Consistency". I'm not particularly fond of his racing, but it is effective. As such, Roglic has everything to get another TDF podium. As for Pogi, even he if he has a bad day, he's so above the others, that he should be more than capable to finish in the top3.
Mats Leering (WielrennenUpToDate) - I think Pogacar wins the yellow jersey, Carlos Rodriguez finishes second and Jonas Vingegaard takes third.
Bram Coenen (WielrennenUpToDate) - Tadej Pogacar, Primoz Roglic, Jonas Vingegaard.
Dirk Linnemann (RadsportAktuell) - Tadej Pogacar; Matteo Jorgenson/Egan Bernal/Carlos Rodriguez ; Primoz Roglic.
Nicolas Gayer (RadsportAktuell) - Tadrej Pogacar, Jonas Vingegaard, Primoz Roglic.
Question 3 - What are your expectations for Remco Evenepoel?
Rúben Silva (CyclingUpToDate) - GC is definitely a goal, but I think he finishes somewhere in the Top10. 7th or 8th, but he can definitely win the time-trials and can be very dangerous in some hilly days where he can win a stage.
Kieran Wood (CyclingUpToDate) - GC wise, I think he'll be in the mix at the top of the standings for much of the race, maybe even with a few stage wins. By the time the dust has settled though, I think a top 5 will be an achievable and creditable goal on his Tour debut.
Ondrej Zhasil (CyclingUpToDate) - The critical part of Remco's grand tours is usually the second week, which is quite kind towards the Belgian this time. if he gets through stages 4 and 9, I think he's good enough to win a time trial and perhaps fight for the top 5.
Juan Larra (CiclismoAlDia) - Not for the general classification, I think that as he did in the last Vuelta a España he will win stages and fight for some jersey like the mountain jersey. Obviously he may finish in the top 5, but I think far from the podium.
Jorge Borreguero (CiclismoAlDia) - He will not perform very well in the mountains, but with the time trials he will be good enough to be at least 7th in the GC.
Victor Gonzalez (CiclismoAlDia) - Top 10 and at least one stage win.
Carlos Silva (CiclismoAtual) - Evenepoel should lose time and go for stages. Don´t believe he fight´s for Top 5 GC after what I saw at the Dauphiné.
Ivan Silva (CiclismoAtual) - Time trial stage wins (both), will race solid in most stages and be 3rd on GC until the end of 2nd week but will drop position to better climbers on the final week and won't gain much time on the final time trial to make up for it.
Filipe Pereira (CiclismoAtual) - Evenepoel is a Tour de France top5 contender. The podium and overall victory feel like too much for his current level. But he will definitely get stage wins and might even wear the yellow jersey for a few days.
Mats Leering (WielrennenUpToDate) - I think Evenepoel can keep up with the rest at the beginning of the Tour, but as the race progresses he will have to drop out eventually. Maybe he can still go for the mountain jersey or a few stage wins. But for the general classification, I don't think he can do more than a Top 10.
Bram Coenen (WielrennenUpToDate) - Winning one or two stages, don't believe in top 10 GC.
Dirk Linnemann (RadsportAktuell) - He'll do quite good for a while but won't go all the way onto a podium. Top10 somewhere.
Nicolas Gayer (RadsportAktuell) - Top7 in GC and one or two stage wins.
Question 4 - Is Jonas Vingegaard going to show his best level at the race?
Rúben Silva (CyclingUpToDate) - I think so. Modern cycling is different, riders can reach their best form without racing before a big goal. Despite the brutal injuries it's clear the team is fully focused in him, and although it may take a couple weeks I think we'll see the best Vingegaard at some point.
Kieran Wood (CyclingUpToDate) - Differently to Pogacar last year, who started strongly then faded, I expect Vingegaard to get stronger and stronger as the race goes on. A third successive Maillot Jaune looks out of reach by all known medical examples of recoveries from such injuries… but it'd be foolish to ever rule Jonas Vingegaard out.
Ondrej Zhasil (CyclingUpToDate) - I see 2023 Tour, just in reverse. I believe he'll be close to Tadej for a long time, but eventually he'll crack under UAE's pressure, providing they'll manage to keep multiple cards in the GC.
Juan Larra (CiclismoAlDia) - No. He does not arrive as he has arrived in the 2 TDF he has won. I think he will finish the race very strong, but not at the great level he is used to.
Jorge Borreguero (CiclismoAlDia) - I don't think so. For his talent we will see him at least in the top 5 of the GC. If he has a lucky break, he could make the podium.
Victor Gonzalez (CiclismoAlDia) - Not like 2022 and 2023, but near.
Carlos Silva (CiclismoAtual) - Don't believe so. After that horrible crash, Vismas DS should sit down with him and maybe schedule new targets, like La Vuelta. It´s to soon to his back, he's not recovered 75%... but money talks and the main sponsors want results.
Ivan Silva (CiclismoAtual) - Yes but only on 2nd, 3rd week. I believe he will be dropped by competition on the first week. Final week he will probably not be chased directly by Pogacar as he will be marking Roglic and Vingegaard will gain back 1/2 minutes with a mountain stage win but it wont be enough to more further than 3rd place.
Filipe Pereira (CiclismoAtual) - I believe Vingegaard will improve throughout the race and thus, should be closer to his best version in the third week. Despite that, 70% Jonas is better than over 70% of the peloton, so he is definitely a yellow jersey contender.
Mats Leering (WielrennenUpToDate) - I do think Jonas Vingegaard is going to surprise us. Despite not having been able to fully prepare, I think he will still make the podium and challenge Pogacar. Only at the moment, nobody is equal to the Slovenian.
Bram Coenen (WielrennenUpToDate) - Not his best, but he will be good.
Dirk Linnemann (RadsportAktuell) - No.
Nicolas Gayer (RadsportAktuell) - Nearly.
Perhaps the biggest question for the 2024 Tour de France is in what form defending champion Jonas Vingegaard will arrive. @Sirotti
Question 5 - Is Primoz Roglic really a contender for the Tour victory?
Rúben Silva (CyclingUpToDate) - A contender yes, but do I see him win? No. Roglic's final Dauphiné stage reminded us of the problems he occasionally has in the high mountains. One single day like this, against riders like Pogacar and Vingegaard, can (and I think will) cost him minutes which he won't be able to recover elsewhere. A podium would already be a great result for him, even though it's not what he aims for.
Kieran Wood (CyclingUpToDate) - As mentioned earlier, given the doubt around Vingegaard I think Roglic has emerged as the most viable challenger to his compatriot Pogacar. A savvy veteran nowadays, Roglic won't make any wasted efforts, unlike his younger rivals at times, and with podiums at each of the last 7 Grand Tours he's finished, expect Roglic to be there or thereabouts, ready to capitalize on any slip up.
Ondrej Zhasil (CyclingUpToDate) - No, I don't see him hanging on to Pogi, maybe not even to his domestiques. A podium will be maximum.
Juan Larra (CiclismoAlDia) - I think that he has options, that he has prepared perfectly for the race, but his chances of victory will depend on Pogacar falling in performance because of the Giro and Vingegaard because of his injury.
Jorge Borreguero (CiclismoAlDia) - I think he will be the closest to Pogacar, but the final stage of the Criterium du Dauphiné left me with a lot of doubts, and he won't be able to keep up with Tadej's pace for 3 weeks.
Victor Gonzalez (CiclismoAlDia) - Yes, absolutely.
Carlos Silva (CiclismoAtual) - After Pogacar, Roglic it´s my main favourite. He focused on the Tour so hard, he knows it is his last chance. I believe he will give it his all. His shape probably not at the same level than other contenders, but he had 2 weeks to get ready to..."The week of his life" when we get into the 3rd and last week. I really beleive in Roglic.
Ivan Silva (CiclismoAtual) - In my opinion he will be the most consistent opponent Pogacar will have. Might surprise Pogacar on the time-trials and there will be a fierce fight for stage wins / bonus seconds between both.
Filipe Pereira (CiclismoAtual) - Absolutely. He wouldn't have a great chance if Pogacar hadn't been at the Giro and Vingegaard hadn't crashed, but this makes it almost a perfect storm for a Roglic Tour de France win. The big question is if Primoz can adapt his racing to his two major opponents here. Only attacking 200 meters from the finish line doesn't seem like a winning strategy against two riders who aren't exactly bad at time trials.
Mats Leering (WielrennenUpToDate) - I think the last stage of the Dauphiné showed that Roglic is not yet at the level to win the Tour. I hope he can find his good legs and make it a battle, but I fear a place in the Top 5 or Top 10 is the highest he can get.
Bram Coenen (WielrennenUpToDate) - Yes, but think Pogacar will be too strong, however Roglic best of the rest.
Dirk Linnemann (RadsportAktuell) - Only if something happens to Pogacar inbetween like 'the sky falling on his head'.
Nicolas Gayer (RadsportAktuell) - Yes.
Question 6 - Who's going to be the 'surprise' rider to finish in the Top10?
Rúben Silva (CyclingUpToDate) - Honestly in such a strong race it's hard to see any surprise. Out of the box, maybe Laurens de Plus can finish in the Top10 he is really good, consistent and was brilliant at the Dauphiné. INEOS won't have to work much, so with some luck he finishes up there.
Kieran Wood (CyclingUpToDate) - As much as I would love to see Tom Pidcock cracking the top 10, I don't think he's ready yet. The parcour may suit a Guillaume Martin, although with two top 10s already to his name it might not be the biggest surprise. If he commits to GC however, Martin's fellow Frenchman, Kévin Vauquelin could be a shout.
Ondrej Zhasil (CyclingUpToDate) - The most surprising part will be UAE ending the race with four riders in top 10 in true good ol' Sky days, but if we're talking one name... I'd like Landa to step up for Remco.
Juan Larra (CiclismoAlDia) - I don't see anyone replicating what Felix Gall did last year. While he can't be considered a complete surprise since he's already won the Tour, I'd still say Egan Bernal, considering everything he's been through.
Jorge Borreguero (CiclismoAlDia) - Although he will be Carlos Rodriguez's domestique, I have a lot of faith in Egan Bernal because of his brutal growth in the last few weeks.
Victor Gonzalez (CiclismoAlDia) - I don't know if it would be a surprise but Matteo Jorgenson.
Carlos Silva (CiclismoAtual) - Jonas Vingegaard. I don't beleive he will finish the race Anyway if he does it, he finishes out of top10. I believe in miracles, but i don't believe in Jonas. Reminds me of Froomey.
Ivan Silva (CiclismoAtual) - Egan Bernal, really improving his physical shape and he's been performing consistently throughout the whole season plus he has the Grand Tour experience on his side. If not him then Matteo Jorgenson who i believe is a serious Top 5 contender.
Filipe Pereira (CiclismoAtual) - This a tough one. I don't think the Top10 will have a major surprise, but for the sake of the question, I will point out Enric Mas a dark horse for the top10 battle. He is amazing in three week races and given his Suisse form, it would be shocking for him to get a top 10. Bernal, Gaudu, and Ciccone also come to mind.
Mats Leering (WielrennenUpToDate) - I think the biggest surprise will be Carlos Rodriguez, it is not without reason that I have him on the podium.
Bram Coenen (WielrennenUpToDate) - Steff Cras
Dirk Linnemann (RadsportAktuell) - Too many options... Not really an idea...
Nicolas Gayer (RadsportAktuell) - Santiago Buitrago.
Question 7 - Who will be the best sprinter of the race?
Rúben Silva (CyclingUpToDate) - Tim Merlier and Jonathan Milan are superb this season but in their absence I think no-one can give Jasper Philipsen a go for the green jersey. Full leadout, van der Poel in front of him, he will win at least two or three sprints but I don't foresee the same dominance as last year.
Kieran Wood (CyclingUpToDate) - Jasper Philipsen. The best leadout in the world, the absence of main rival Tim Merlier, all the cards are set for another dominant sprint display this year from ‘Jasper the Master’. Although yes, he was beaten by Arnaud De Lie at the Belgian Nationals, the difference in quality of leadouts will sway things in Philipsen's favour here.
Ondrej Zhasil (CyclingUpToDate) - Philipsen will win the points classification, but Cav will take a stage so...
Juan Larra (CiclismoAlDia) - Although Tim Merlier will not make it easy for him, I think Jasper Philipsen with the help of Mathieu van der Poel will be the best sprinter again.
Jorge Borreguero (CiclismoAlDia) - Jasper Philipsen. It is true that he missed two victories in the Baloise Belgium Tour, but in the Tour de France he will have Mathieu van der Poel, like last year, and he will win the points classification again.
Victor Gonzalez (CiclismoAlDia) - Jasper Philipsen.
Carlos Silva (CiclismoAtual) - Man, this one his hard, everybody want´s to see Cavendish win one stage and he work hard, like i never see him before, to that "life" target. If one guy win 3/4 stages, we allways talk about Cavendish, and not the other guys. Anyway, Jasper Philipsen and Alpecin.
Ivan Silva (CiclismoAtual) - Jasper Philipsen and it wont even be a competition.
Filipe Pereira (CiclismoAtual) - This Tour has Jasper Philipsen all over it. No Tim Merlier or Jonathan Milan, Philipsen is the best sprinter in this peloton as the sprint field isn't as good as in the Giro. His biggest opponents seem to be Arnaud de Lie, Mark Cavendish, Dylan Groenewegen, and perhaps Sam Bennett. Also, beware of Alexander Kristoff and Soren Waerenskjold, who have been in great form this season and can step up to give the Belgian rider a fight.
Mats Leering (WielrennenUpToDate) - Jasper Philipsen! It's a shame we won't see Tim Merlier and Jonathan Milan, but other than that I don't see any other sprinter who is really better than Philipsen at the moment.
Bram Coenen (WielrennenUpToDate) - Jasper Philipsen.
Dirk Linnemann (RadsportAktuell) - Jasper Philipsen.
Nicolas Gayer (RadsportAktuell) - Jasper Philipsen.
The team unanimously agrees that Jasper Philipsen is the sprinter to beat at the 2024 Tour de France. @Sirotti
Question 8 - Who will be the surprise of the Tour?
Rúben Silva (CyclingUpToDate) - Oier Lazkano, if I have to pick just one name. This guy is incredibly strong and I think we are only seeing the tip of the iceberg... He can win virtually any stage except for the time-trials.
Kieran Wood (CyclingUpToDate) - Ben Healy. One of my favourite riders, everything the Irishman does is exciting to watch. I would love to see him win stage 1, get the Maillot Jaune and test himself by attempting to keep up a GC fight for as long as possible.
Ondrej Zhasil (CyclingUpToDate) - Lotto Dstny in general. I see Maxim Van Gils and Arnaud de Lie taking (multiple) stage(s). I'm also looking forward to the French champion Paul Lapeira.
Juan Larra (CiclismoAlDia) - Movistar Team. I think that after several embarrassing years they have realized that they should not focus everything on Enric Mas and men like Oier Lazkano or Alex Aranburu are going to give a lot of spectacle in the race.
Jorge Borreguero (CiclismoAlDia) - Lenny Martinez.
Victor Gonzalez (CiclismoAlDia) - Lot of contenders but I would say Maxim Van Gils.
Carlos Silva (CiclismoAtual) - Owch. Hard one. Maybe Jorgenson. Why? He's not a 3 weeks rider. If he don't loose much time working/helping Vingegaard, he can be the Visma man for the race and fight for final podium with Roglic and Rodríguez.
Ivan Silva (CiclismoAtual) - Lenny Martinez who is a favourite to race for the white jersey if he can defend himself from Evenepoel on the time trials.
Filipe Pereira (CiclismoAtual) - Paul Lapeira is a good shout as I believe he will get a stage win from a breakaway. A crowning moment for his breakout season. Steff Cras comes from a crash at the Itzulia, so a stage win for him would be marvelous, and a Tour of Slovenia top 10 shows he isn't in bad form, right now. Lastly, I also expect big things from Derek Gee. The Canadian made a tremendous Dauphiné and perhaps a TDF top 10 is too much to ask from him but I view him as a KOM classification contender.
Mats Leering (WielrennenUpToDate) - I think Matteo Jorgenson will ride a very strong Tour. Purely due to the fact that he will probably work for Vingegaard, he will not finish on the podium or in the top 5 I think. But should Vingegaard still drop out or disappoint, Jorgenson could well surprise.
Bram Coenen (WielrennenUpToDate) - Georg Zimmermann.
Dirk Linnemann (RadsportAktuell) - Whew... Just a feeling... Someone... Uno-X Mobility... Can't put a finger on it, but yeah...
Nicolas Gayer (RadsportAktuell) - Nicolas Prodhomme.
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