ANALYSIS | Who are the riders with an outside chance at the Tour of Flanders? Including Wout van Aert, Filippo Ganna

With the Tour of Flanders just days away, most of the headlines are (rightfully) dominated by the duel between Tadej Pogacar and Mathieu van der Poel. The Slovenian and the Dutchman have traded blows and have established themselves as two of the greatest Monument riders of all time.

But De Ronde has a habit of delivering chaos. From dramatic tactical missteps to brutal crashes and unforeseen collapses, the cobbled monument is one of the most unpredictable races on the calendar. And while Van der Poel and Pogacar remain the clear favourites, a group of outside contenders loom, ready to pounce should things go awry.

Here are five riders who, despite not being the centre of attention, could absolutely shake up the script this Sunday.

Where do you even begin with Wout van Aert?

A rider of such rare ability that any race he starts feels winnable, yet his 2025 campaign so far has been horrible to say the least. He is still without a victory this season, a frustrating reality made even more agonising by narrow defeats and a hangover from his injuries last year.

Just this week, Van Aert was beaten in a sprint by Neilson Powless at Dwars door Vlaanderen, a race he might normally dominate. The week before, at E3 Saxo Classic, he was nowhere to be seen in the finale, raising more questions than answers about his current condition.

But even amid the doubts, this is still Wout van Aert. A former Milano-Sanremo winner (2020), a three time cyclocross world champion, and a rider with a range of Tour de France stage wins to his name. His best result at the Tour of Flanders remains a second place in 2020, with a fourth-place finish in 2023 showing he can be right in the mix.

He might not be in peak shape, but Van Aert has the engine, experience, and tactical sense to contend. We hope, at the very least, to see him in the mix for the podium this Sunday.

Few riders come into the Tour of Flanders with better recent form than Mads Pedersen. The 2019 World Champion has been building momentum steadily through the spring and appears to be hitting top form at exactly the right time.

Last weekend, he surged to victory at Gent-Wevelgem, confirming his strength in a hard, attritional race, and just days earlier, he pushed Mathieu van der Poel at parts at E3 Saxo Classic, finishing second behind the Dutchman (but yes, a long way back).

Pedersen has been on the Flanders podium twice before, finishing second back in 2018 and third in 2023. He’s entering the prime of his classics career, and while he’s yet to win a Monument, the signs suggest he’s closer than ever. He’s already won stages at all three Grand Tours, and few riders handle bad weather and long distances better than the rugged Dane.

He may lack the explosiveness of Van der Poel or the climbing of Pogacar, but Pedersen is relentless, and hard as nails. If the big two mark each other too closely, Pedersen could be the one who slips away to take advantage.

While Stefan Küng may not grab the headlines like some of his flashier rivals, his consistency make him an outside bet worth serious consideration. The 31-year-old Swiss has quietly developed into one of the most reliable riders on the cobbled classics scene. He finished fifth at the Tour of Flanders in 2022 and followed that up with sixth in 2023, evidence that he knows exactly how to manage this race.

Küng has also shown strong form this spring. He came sixth at E3 Saxo Classic and ninth at Dwars door Vlaanderen, demonstrating that he is more than capable of staying with the top contenders when the pace ramps up. What he may lack in explosive attacks, he makes up for with his diesel of an engine.

If the race becomes a war of attrition, with crashes, splits, or tactical misfires among the favourites, Küng is exactly the type of rider who could capitalise. He might not have the high-speed sprint or the punchy acceleration on the climbs, but give him a small group in the finale and a chance to time trial to the line, and he could very well find himself on the podium.

Until recently, Filippo Ganna was known almost exclusively for his dominance in time trials. That’s all changed now.

A two-time world champion against the clock, a seven-time Giro stage winner, and an Olympic gold medallist on the track, Ganna is a pure power machine. But this spring has seen the INEOS Grenadiers rider elevate himself into serious contention on the cobbles, a transformation that is beginning to raise eyebrows.

Ganna’s 2025 form has been nothing short of exceptional. He was third at Milano-Sanremo, behind only Van der Poel and Pogacar in a legendary race last month. Then, at E3 Saxo Classic, he finished third again, proving that his engine is perfectly suited to the longer, more gruelling races.

The question surrounding Ganna is whether his size and power profile will let him survive the relentless climbing of the Oude Kwaremont and the Paterberg when the decisive moves are made. But if the favourites hesitate, if the wind and tactics come into play, Ganna could very well hang in. And if he does, his time trialling prowess makes him an incredibly dangerous rider to give a gap to.

He’s no longer just a TT specialist, he’s a real threat.

Could Matteo Jorgenson become the first American winner of the Tour of Flanders? It’s an outside bet, but it’s not as far-fetched as it might have seemed even 12 months ago.

The 25-year-old has been on a rapid upward trajectory and enters the 2025 edition as one of the most in-form riders in the peloton. Fresh off a superb victory at Paris-Nice where he defended his title, Jorgenson also finished fourth at Dwars Door this week, and has shown time and time again he’s superb on the cobbles.

Now riding for Team Visma | Lease a Bike, Jorgenson has benefited from the team's tactical expertise and depth of support. He’s already a two-time winner of Paris-Nice and has developed into a rider who can handle punchy climbs, long distances, and tough racing conditions. While he only finished 31st at the Tour of Flanders in 2024, that result belies the massive strides he’s made since.

With a bit more experience, a better feel for the race, and a strong team behind him, Jorgenson could realistically target the podium.