ANALYSIS | Who are the riders with an outside chance at the Tour of Flanders? Including Wout van Aert, Filippo Ganna
Cycling
With the Tour of Flanders just days away, most of the
headlines are (rightfully) dominated by the duel between Tadej Pogacar and
Mathieu van der Poel. The Slovenian and the Dutchman have traded blows and have
established themselves as two of the greatest Monument riders of all time.
But De Ronde has a habit of delivering chaos. From dramatic
tactical missteps to brutal crashes and unforeseen collapses, the cobbled monument
is one of the most unpredictable races on the calendar. And while Van der Poel
and Pogacar remain the clear favourites, a group of outside contenders loom,
ready to pounce should things go awry.
Here are five riders who, despite not being the centre of
attention, could absolutely shake up the script this Sunday.
Wout van Aert
Where do you even begin with Wout van Aert?
A rider of such rare ability that any race he starts feels
winnable, yet his 2025 campaign so far has been horrible to say the least. He
is still without a victory this season, a frustrating reality made even more
agonising by narrow defeats and a hangover from his injuries last year.
Just this week, Van Aert was beaten in a sprint by Neilson
Powless at Dwars door Vlaanderen, a race he might normally dominate. The week
before, at E3 Saxo Classic, he was nowhere to be seen in the finale, raising
more questions than answers about his current condition.
Which version of Wout van Aert will we see on Sunday?
But even amid the doubts, this is still Wout van Aert. A
former Milano-Sanremo winner (2020), a three time cyclocross world champion,
and a rider with a range of Tour de France stage wins to his name. His best
result at the Tour of Flanders remains a second place in 2020, with a
fourth-place finish in 2023 showing he can be right in the mix.
He might not be in peak shape, but Van Aert has the engine,
experience, and tactical sense to contend. We hope, at the very least, to see
him in the mix for the podium this Sunday.
Mads Pedersen
Few riders come into the Tour of Flanders with better recent
form than Mads Pedersen. The 2019 World Champion has been building momentum
steadily through the spring and appears to be hitting top form at exactly the
right time.
Last weekend, he surged to victory at Gent-Wevelgem, confirming
his strength in a hard, attritional race, and just days earlier, he pushed
Mathieu van der Poel at parts at E3 Saxo Classic, finishing second behind the
Dutchman (but yes, a long way back).
Pedersen has been on the Flanders podium twice before,
finishing second back in 2018 and third in 2023. He’s entering the prime of his
classics career, and while he’s yet to win a Monument, the signs suggest he’s
closer than ever. He’s already won stages at all three Grand Tours, and few
riders handle bad weather and long distances better than the rugged Dane.
He may lack the explosiveness of Van der Poel or the
climbing of Pogacar, but Pedersen is relentless, and hard as nails. If the big
two mark each other too closely, Pedersen could be the one who slips away to
take advantage.
Stefan Küng
While Stefan Küng may not grab the headlines like some of
his flashier rivals, his consistency make him an outside bet worth serious
consideration. The 31-year-old Swiss has quietly developed into one of the most
reliable riders on the cobbled classics scene. He finished fifth at the Tour of
Flanders in 2022 and followed that up with sixth in 2023, evidence that he
knows exactly how to manage this race.
Küng has also shown strong form this spring. He came sixth
at E3 Saxo Classic and ninth at Dwars door Vlaanderen, demonstrating that he is
more than capable of staying with the top contenders when the pace ramps up.
What he may lack in explosive attacks, he makes up for with his diesel of an
engine.
Read also
If the race becomes a war of attrition, with crashes,
splits, or tactical misfires among the favourites, Küng is exactly the type of
rider who could capitalise. He might not have the high-speed sprint or the
punchy acceleration on the climbs, but give him a small group in the finale and
a chance to time trial to the line, and he could very well find himself on the
podium.
Filippo Ganna
Until recently, Filippo Ganna was known almost exclusively
for his dominance in time trials. That’s all changed now.
A two-time world champion against the clock, a seven-time
Giro stage winner, and an Olympic gold medallist on the track, Ganna is a pure
power machine. But this spring has seen the INEOS Grenadiers rider elevate
himself into serious contention on the cobbles, a transformation that is
beginning to raise eyebrows.
Ganna’s 2025 form has been nothing short of exceptional. He
was third at Milano-Sanremo, behind only Van der Poel and Pogacar in a
legendary race last month. Then, at E3 Saxo Classic, he finished third again,
proving that his engine is perfectly suited to the longer, more gruelling
races.
The question surrounding Ganna is whether his size and power
profile will let him survive the relentless climbing of the Oude Kwaremont and
the Paterberg when the decisive moves are made. But if the favourites hesitate,
if the wind and tactics come into play, Ganna could very well hang in. And if
he does, his time trialling prowess makes him an incredibly dangerous rider to
give a gap to.
He’s no longer just a TT specialist, he’s a real threat.
Matteo Jorgenson
Could Matteo Jorgenson become the first American winner of
the Tour of Flanders? It’s an outside bet, but it’s not as far-fetched as it
might have seemed even 12 months ago.
The 25-year-old has
been on a rapid upward trajectory and enters the 2025 edition as one of the
most in-form riders in the peloton. Fresh off a superb victory at Paris-Nice where
he defended his title, Jorgenson also finished fourth at Dwars Door this week, and
has shown time and time again he’s superb on the cobbles.
Now riding for Team Visma | Lease a Bike, Jorgenson has
benefited from the team's tactical expertise and depth of support. He’s already
a two-time winner of Paris-Nice and has developed into a rider who can handle
punchy climbs, long distances, and tough racing conditions. While he only
finished 31st at the Tour of Flanders in 2024, that result belies the massive
strides he’s made since.
With a bit more experience, a better feel for the race, and
a strong team behind him, Jorgenson could realistically target the podium.
Fin MajorCycling Journalist
Fin Major is a UK-based writer at CyclingUpToDate and has been part of the team since 2024. He is the site’s main writer for FAQs and evergreen explainers and has written around 2,000 pieces for the platform. Alongside this work, he focuses on in-depth analysis and covers the biggest races on the calendar, including the Tour de France, the Giro d’Italia, and La Vuelta a España, providing clear context around performance trends, tactics, and key storylines.
In his reporting, Fin uses reputable data sources such as ProCyclingStats for results, statistics, and historical context. He places strong emphasis on careful sourcing, editorial accuracy, and updating articles promptly when new, verified information becomes available. Outside of writing, Fin is an active cyclist, which supports his practical understanding of the sport and its demands.
claps 0visitors 0
Just in
Popular news
Latest comments
- Roglic could not have won anyway, after Jonas followed him when Roglic decided it was his turn for a stage win. Jonas had already attacked Kuss twice, so it was Jonas who was within seconds of taking the lead before Kuss was 'gifted' the win. It felt a bit like Roglic was being thrown under the bus when the team made his unhappiness public.Hills3314-11-2026
- POG1, another nice doc about our favourite, I watched most of it with a big smile on my face (except for the bits about his crashes 😢 obvs!).Lozza14-11-2026
- Martinez had a good year! 5th at the Tour was a great result for him, albeit largely through getting in successful breaks, but he held it better than Pidcock who’d done the same.Lozza14-11-2026
- guess what Valgren, you're 34, and no you're not good enough. sorry to say.mij14-11-2026
- I'm a sepp fan and like to think he earned that LOL, indulge me : ) I think Jonas was fine. Roglic did not want to concede to Sepp. and I don't think you ever attack your own teammate in the leaders jersey if he is holding his own, which Sepp just about was.mij14-11-2026
- enough time? he's 24 years old. He's won 10 races over the last 2 years and some are significant. I won't argue about his attitude being good - it needs to improve. But with some coaching and mentorship he has a lot of winning ahead of him and has plenty of time to win a GT. I don't think he will ever beat Tadej, but everyone else is fair game Look at Mas and Valverde - they were 31 and 29, respectively, when they won the Vuelta.mij14-11-2026
- Pogacar has a fine head on his shoulders.Careful investments and a couple of coffee shops sounds like a wonderful way to chill after an intense career.Stay healthy GOAT.
Brucegel14-11-2026 - I live in Maribor.PogiSloFans14-11-2026
- I live in Ljubljana and often go on trips in the surrounding area, where I frequently see young cyclists in 'Pogi Team' jerseys training, either alone or in groups. By simply motivating so many young people to take up cycling, Tadej has already achieved something truly significant.Velijo14-11-2026
- That's an excellent point. It's interesting that Vader came to that realization only after he learned that his contract wasn't going to be renewed.
santiagobenites14-11-2026
Loading
Write a comment