ANALYSIS: The one statistic that explains why Primoz Roglic’s Giro-Tour double could be a success
Cycling
Tadej Pogacar, Jonas Vingegaard, Remco Evenepoel, and Primoz Roglic, the biggest names in the peloton in terms of Grand Tour contenders may all race more than one grand tour in 2025. This is great news for cycling news, however, one question has now been answered: Primoz Roglic has officially confirmed his plan to race the Giro in 2025, followed immediately by the Tour de France.
“It was a fairly easy choice. He normally finishes in the Vuelta, so it’s better that I start with the first Grand Tour of the year now, also now that we are going through Slovenia in the Giro. The Tour was also an easy choice,” team manager Ralph Denk told In de Leiderstrui.
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The decision comes after a mixed 2024 season for Roglic, during which he crashed out of the Tour de France when it looked like he was growing into the race after a difficult start. Despite this setback, Roglic rebounded to claim victory at the Vuelta a Espana, fighting back to take the red jersey from Ben O’Connor to win the race for the fourth time. Now, his return to the Giro and commitment to the Tour sets up a potentially defining year for the 35-year-old, and there is one interesting variable that suggests 2025 could be Roglic’s year.
Is Roglic accepting that he won't win the Tour
Roglic’s decision to target both the Giro and the Tour has sparked debate over whether this move indicates that he is conceding the yellow jersey battle to Pogacar and Vingegaard. We have previously analysed whether Roglic’s decision might be due to the fact he is (rightfully) content with his superb palmares, even if the one thing that us missing is the yellow jersey.
Roglic’s challenges in previous Tours de France are of course well documented, particularly his heartbreaking 2020 loss to Pogacar on the final time trial and his repeated crashes in subsequent editions. With Pogacar’s and Vingegaard’s usurping him in recent years, Roglic’s chances of winning the Tour outright have diminished. There was a time in 2023 where Roglic was most likely the third best GC rider on the planet, whilst simultaneously being both the second best from his country, and the second best on his team. Without them, this could have been the Roglic era.
Roglic’s approach to 2025 may reflect a strategic shift, focusing on securing victories where he feels his chances are strongest. The Giro d’Italia comes with fond memories from 2023, and the 2025 route passes through his home country of Slovenia, which offers an opportunity for Roglic to be the main man at a race where Pogacar and Vingegaard may not be present.
However, committing to the Tour immediately after the Giro raises questions about his ability to contend with fresher rivals. Is it that Roglic views the Tour as an opportunity to support his team while aiming for stage wins or a secondary podium spot, rather than challenging directly for yellow? We doubt that, as Roglic has shown time and time again that beneath his friendly persona, he is the ultimate competitor.
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While Roglic’s decision doesn’t necessarily mean he’s given up on the yellow jersey, it does indicate a more measured approach, and his chances of winning a second pink jersey are certainly more likely than him winning a first yellow jersey.
But there is one stat, that suggests that Roglic’s Giro-Tour double could provide him with exactly what he needs to shine in France.
Can Roglic recover quickly enough after the Giro?
The Giro d’Italia runs from 10th May to 1st June 2025, leaving just 34 days before the start of the Tour de France on 5th July 2025. The feasibility of Roglic recovering and peaking again in time for the Tour is a hot topic, particularly given his age and the physical demands of Grand Tours.
History provides some context. In 2024, Tadej Pogacar became the first rider since Marco Pantani in 1998 to win both the Giro and the Tour in the same year. Pogacar’s dominant performances, winning six stages at each race, silenced doubters who questioned whether attempting the double was a viable strategy. However, Pogacar is considered a generational talent, perhaps even superhuman in his recovery and ability to peak repeatedly within short timeframes. At 35, Roglic may not recover as quickly as his younger compatriot.
The traditional wisdom in cycling has been that targeting both the Giro and the Tour in the same year is too physically taxing. Riders often struggle to recover fully in the weeks between the two, with fatigue affecting both physical performance and mental sharpness. The optimal approach for most riders has been to focus on one Grand Tour to ensure peak performance rather than risk mediocrity in both.
However, Pogacar’s success in 2024 may signal a shift in this thinking. With advances in recovery techniques, nutrition, and training methodologies, some riders could find it possible to peak twice in quick succession. Roglic’s team, Red Bull - BORA - hansgrohe, will likely leverage every available resource to maximise his recovery and readiness for the Tour.
Interestingly, Roglic’s own history suggests he might be capable of achieving this feat. In 2020, after his heartbreaking loss to Pogacar on the final time trial of the Tour de France, Roglic recovered within a month to win the Vuelta a Espana. Starting just 30 days after his Tour defeat, Roglic was back to his peak level at the Vuelta, winning the overall title ahead of Richard Carapaz, as well as the green jersey. This required more than just a physical recovery, it required Roglic to recover mentally from one of the most devastating last-minute sports losses ever seen.
Ultimately, whether Roglic can recover quickly enough for the Tour will depend on a combination of factors: his physical condition, the resources of his team, the demands of the Giro itself, and perhaps most importantly, if Roglic can stay on his bike. If he can replicate the mental and physical toughness he showed in 2020, Roglic could still be a factor at the Tour, even if not as a top favourite for the yellow jersey.
Is this the new way of racing?
Pogacar’s 2024 Giro-Tour double has reignited debate over whether this ambitious approach could become a new standard for elite riders. Traditionally, riders have avoided attempting both Grand Tours due to the recovery time required and the need to tailor training schedules to peak for one event. The Giro, with its challenging terrain and unpredictable weather, often leaves participants exhausted, making it difficult to compete at the highest level just weeks later in the Tour.
Yet Pogacar’s success challenges these assumptions. His ability to dominate both races suggests that advances in sports science, recovery techniques, and team support might enable more riders to attempt the double in the future, and is that not great news for cycling fans? The more riders attempting the Giro-Tour double the better, especially if they can find a way to peak for both.
For Roglic, the decision to attempt both races at 35 is unquestionably a bold move. While he has shown a superb recovery ability in the past, his age could make the Giro-Tour double even more demanding. Moreover, the level of competition at the Tour, with fresher rivals like Pogacar and Vingegaard, will be a significant challenge.
Still, Roglic’s choice reflects his desire to push boundaries and test his limits, and whether it’s a sign of things to come or a gamble remains to be seen.
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- yeah, that’s a more fair assessment. “reaching mathieu’s level” doesn’t mean you’re planning to replicate his whole career. the former IS doable, potentially. it’s just the latter that likely is not.OCexile25-12-2024
- That’s not entirely true. Every person follows their own development path and peaks differently. Remco and Primoz had hardly started cycling before elite level. Jonas was pretty much under the radzr until he unexpectedly had to take over responsibility at JV. Some guys only get real good in their thirties others have peaked mid-twenties. You can’t tell in advance how and upto what level they will progress, obviously his career might not have MVDPs length but nothing says he could not end up doing a few seasons at his level.Mistermaumau25-12-2024
- well, del grosso is 21 right now. when mathieu was a year younger than that, he was already winning elite level world championships, not U23. i think del grosso will be a very good pro for years, but if he was really going to be the next van der poel someday, he’d already have to be at that level right NOW. van der poel was showing signs of true greatness when he was 15-16. THAT’S what generational talent looks like.OCexile25-12-2024
- Yeah.... gear 😅.mikolajjj24-12-2024
- It shouldn’t be about expectations in the first place should it? Besides, if you look at everyone’s calculations as a whole they don’t add up in the first place. There’ll be 2-3 riders with a 50% chance, a dozen with 10 or 20% and dozens more with a 5% so we’re expecting at least 2 if not 3 winners. Remind me again who won before her? Says it all about using data to decide on participation.Mistermaumau24-12-2024
- Ok, happy I’m not too interested in this team coz’ the account of what happened is really hard to follow.Mistermaumau24-12-2024
- The UCI is worse than USA CyclingVeganpotter24-12-2024
- It's not like they wanted her to not win😅 She had an outstanding Olympics. But there's a reason why she wasn't expected to win the road race and that's ok. Things like this happen and it's great...better than seeing expected winners win.Veganpotter24-12-2024
- Bruyneel ? The man with a lifetime ban from cycling...why do you keep giving him and his doper mate, Armstrong, a platform?DJ24-12-2024
- yeah, agree. on the subject of being a “complete rider,” i do think that’s getting more interesting. mathieu seems to have decided he wants to get much better at climbing the the high mountain passes. he appears to be looking for new challenges, which should be interesting to watch. in most cases you’d dismiss a goal like that at age 30, but it’s mvdp. he’s never going to climb with the real climbers, but if he can improve enough it could open up stage wins when the parcours isnt just purely toothy and punchy.OCexile24-12-2024