ANALYSIS | Tadej Pogacar's date with destiny at Paris-Roubaix: Can he surpass the legend of Eddy Merckx?

This Sunday marks a moment in cycling history. The moment we’ve all been waiting for. The debut of Tadej Pogacar at Paris-Roubaix. The first time the sport’s most complete modern rider tackles the race known as the “Hell of the North.”

Has there ever been a more anticipated debut at Roubaix?

Pogacar enters this race not only as a Monument winner or Grand Tour champion, but as the man who has conquered the entire sport in 2024. He stands on the cusp of rewriting what we thought was possible in cycling, and his presence alone lifts this year’s Paris-Roubaix to something much bigger than a one-day race. It becomes an event charged with historic potential.

In 2024, Tadej Pogacar achieved the unthinkable: winning the Giro d’Italia, Tour de France, and the UCI World Championships road race in a single season. A modern-day triple crown that hasn’t been achieved in decades, and only twice before by a male rider. In the process, he also won 12 Grand Tour stages, leaving the scraps for everyone else.

No rider in the 21st century has achieved this. No rider had even come close. The Giro-Tour double had been all but written off as a relic of the past, until Pogacar made it real again. The World title crowned his supremacy, but it’s how he won these races that adds further weight to his legend. He attacked with panache, raced aggressively, and never settled for simply defending a lead.

But somehow, even after all that, a win at Paris-Roubaix in 2025 might be more significant of them all.

What makes Pogacar’s debut even more fascinating is that Roubaix is one of just two Monuments missing from his palmarès, the other of course being Milano-Sanremo.

Last month, Pogacar targeted Sanremo with precision. He climbed the Poggio like a man possessed, but it wasn’t enough, as another legend of the sport proved too strong the day. Mathieu van der Poel outsprinted him to take the victory and deny the Slovenian his dream.

Before the race, Pogacar confessed that Sanremo is the one he wants most. But perhaps that defeat stung so deeply that it inspired something even more audacious: a shot at Roubaix.

Historically, climbers and Grand Tour general classification riders have avoided Paris-Roubaix. The risks are immense. The cobbles are brutal. The crashes are frequent. And the gains? For a light, stage-race specialist, minimal. But Pogacar, true to form, sees an opportunity where others see limits.

He doesn’t just want to be a winner. He wants to be complete.

That quest for completeness came one step closer last weekend, when Pogacar finally cracked Mathieu van der Poel this spring and beat him to win the Tour of Flanders for a second time.

It was the first time Pogacar had defeated the Dutchman this spring. At Sanremo, Van der Poel had struck first. Remember, in 2024, Van der Poel won Flanders and Roubaix in back to back weekends whilst donning the rainbow stripes.

For years, we have marvelled at the rivalry between Pogacar and Vingegaard, and Van der Poel and Van Aert. Little did we know, that the greatest rivalry of the lot might just be Pogacar vs Van der Poel.

Now the score is level in 2025, at 1-1. The two titans of modern cycling locked in a rivalry that evokes memories of Merckx vs. de Vlaeminck, Boonen vs. Cancellara, and even Coppi vs. Bartali.

This Sunday could be the decider.

But Roubaix is not Flanders. The hills are gone. The cobbled climbs of the Paterberg and Oude Kwaremont are replaced by brutal pavé sectors that reward raw power and resilience.

Where can the world champion distance the big men?

That’s the question on everyone’s lips. Pogacar weighs around 66kg. Former Roubaix dominators often tip the scales at nearly 90kg. As Filippo Ganna, Wout van Aert, Mads Pedersen, and Van der Poel themselves have shown, power matters here more than finesse sometimes. Positioning, brute strength, and the ability to ride over jagged stones at 50km/h are non-negotiable.

As former Roubaix winner Dirk Demol put it: “I would be very surprised if he were to outride the rest.” The odds are against Pogacar in every measurable way. But then again, so they were when he attacked 100km from the finish to win the world title. So they were when he chose to attempt the Giro-Tour double.

Pogacar exists to defy odds. To tear up the script.

So where could he distance the big men? The Arenberg Forest? Mons-en-Pévèle? Carrefour de l’Arbre? These are the sectors where races are lost, and where, if he's feeling as good as he did at the Tour of Flanders, he might just find a way to win.

Let’s not forget: during the 2010s, the idea of a Tour de France contender racing, and even winning, Paris-Roubaix was fantasy.

The era of specialisation was in full swing. GC riders were built like climbers, their calendars were strictly managed, and they were conditioned to peak in July and July alone. Racing cobbled Monuments, let alone Roubaix, was off the table. Too risky. Too demanding. Too random.

That’s what made riders like Chris Froome and Vincenzo Nibali so successful, but also comparatively limited in scope. Roubaix wasn’t on their radar. It wasn’t supposed to be.

Then came Pogacar.

He first hinted at this change in 2022 with his audacious debut ride at the Tour of Flanders. Then he won the race in 2023. In 2024, he’s added the Giro, the Tour, the Worlds, and now aims for Roubaix. There’s no calendar, no rulebook, no tradition too sacred for him to question. He is reshaping what a cyclist can be.

This is more than just a race start. This is a statement.

If Pogacar does win Paris-Roubaix this weekend, the comparisons to Eddy Merckx will no longer be poetic, they’ll be statistical.

Merckx is one of the only riders in history to have dominated Monuments and Grand Tours in the same breath. He was a winner of everything, and in 1975, delivered one of the most impressive monument seasons in cycling history: he won Sanremo, Flanders, and Liège, finished second at Roubaix, and sixth at Il Lombardia.

No one has come close since.

But now, with Pogacar having finished third at Sanremo, winning Flanders, and preparing to ride Roubaix, Liège, and Lombardia later this year, the record could be threatened. He has already won Liège twice and remains undefeated in Lombardia for four straight seasons.

In fact, according to Cycling Statistics on Twitter, Pogacar is on course to achieve the best single-season Monument campaign in history if he performs at Roubaix. Just racing all five Monuments in a single season is rare enough. Contending for wins in all five is unprecedented.

We’ll throw in one caveat here, that may be a good omen for Remco Evenepoel and Jonas Vingegaard. Merckx’s 1975 season was one of the few years he did not manage to win a grand tour…

Only three riders in history have won all five Monuments: Rik Van Looy, Eddy Merckx, and Roger De Vlaeminck. It’s a feat that has eluded even the most versatile champions in the modern era.

Pogacar already has Lombardia (4x), Liège (2x), Flanders (2x). He was on the podium at Sanremo. Roubaix is the last frontier.

If he wins, he joins a club of immortals, and potentially puts himself on a path to become the greatest rider of all time.

The difficulty of this cannot be understated. Cobbles are unpredictable. Weather changes everything. Crashes are a constant threat. Mechanical issues can destroy a race in seconds. And the competition is brutal, Van der Poel, Ganna, Pedersen, Küng, Van Aert, Philipsen, and others will not make it easy.

But that’s what makes Pogacar’s attempt so meaningful.

He is willing to risk everything. His reputation. His record. Even his body.

Just for a shot at Roubaix.

If Pogacar succeeds at Roubaix, it will do more than rewrite the record books. It will change cycling culture itself.

For years, specialisation has ruled the sport. Riders are identified young and funnelled into specific roles: sprinter, climber, classics man, time trialist, GC leader. Rarely do riders cross disciplines or attempt the impossible. Calendar planning is rigid. Risks are minimised.

But Pogacar is challenging that orthodoxy.

In 2024 alone, his success at the Giro, the Tour, and the World Championships has already inspired others. More riders are now planning to attempt the Giro-Tour double next month. More GC contenders are being urged to try the Classics. Even sprinters are reconsidering their long-range calendars.

The limits are evaporating.

Of course, with all of this comes pressure. Enormous pressure.

Roubaix is merciless. It humbles the greats. Tom Boonen has four wins, but also suffered brutal defeats. Peter Sagan won once, but crashed out several times. Cancellara, Vanmarcke, Van Aert, all have tasted both glory and heartbreak here.

Pogacar is stepping into this world for the first time. And unlike Flanders, there’s no safety net of climbs to exploit. This is flat, fast, and fiercely physical.

But that’s what makes it so compelling.

This Sunday, Tadej Pogacar will attempt something almost no one thought possible. He’s already conquered the high mountains, the week-long tours, and the Monumental climbs of Liège and Lombardy. He’s outpowered the sprinters. Outsprinted the climbers. Outwitted the tacticians.

Whatever happens on Sunday, one thing is already clear: Pogacar has changed cycling.

Even if he doesn’t win Paris-Roubaix, the fact that he’s racing it at all, after a Giro-Tour double, after a Flanders victory, after a World Championship title, is a legacy in itself. He is redefining greatness.

And if he does win? We may look back on this Sunday not just as the day Pogacar conquered Roubaix, but as the day cycling itself entered a new era.