PREVIEW | Vuelta a Espana 2024 stage 6 - Breakaway, GC or breakaway on sprint on hilly day?

The Vuelta a Espana starts on the 17th of August and finishes on the 8th of September. It is the final Grand Tour of the season and, like every year, it will feature a luxurious startlist packed with climbers, sprinters and classics riders looking for their final opportunity to win big in a Grand Tour. We preview stage 6.

A traditional type of Vuelta stage. The sixth day of racing finishes in Yunquera on what is a day packed with different types of climbs. Lots of scenarios can play out whilst the slight 9-kilometer climb provides opportunities for puncheurs and climbers alike to do what they know best. A breakaway victory is also quite possible, although ironically the start of the stage is flat.

The stage actually starts inside a Carrefour supermarket which may be the highlight of the day. The first climb of the day is the hardest - 14.7Km at 5.5% - but it ends with 112 kilometers to go. Rolling roads from there onwards. The second climb is almost 20 kilometers long but with a flat middle section, it is not steep, featuring an intermediate sprint and a third category in the summit which comes with 55Km to go.

The penultimate 3.5 kilometers long at 5.9% with 26 kilometers to go. A descent and flat run-up to the final ascent to Yunquera. Not one for the climbers, not one for the sprinters... A mix of classics riders, puncheurs and GC riders will be near the front here. The climb is 8.9 kilometers at 3.9%. The most difficult is the first third, there is a small descent halfway through and the final 2.5 kilometers are mostly in gradients of around 5%. The final meters will be around the same, it makes it quite open.

The Weather

Still quite hot, a day in the 30's, but not extreme. A day through the hills where it will be a little fresher, perhaps with clouds and a small chance of rain towards the end of the stage even.

The Favourites

GC fight - They will be there. They have to! It doesn't look like a super hard day but it's still 3600 meters of climbing, a hilltop finish and quite some heat. You can't relax or pretend like nothing can happen. Sure, big attacks or gaps aren't expected but a bad day can lead to lost time and also in the final sprint or a late attack there can be small gaps - even bonifications at play. Primoz Roglic and Lennert van Eetvelt are very fast sprinters when in a finale like this and if the breakaway is caught they can certainly make it happen.

Sprint? - Unlikely, but possible. There has been little intention of attacks over the past few days, the heat having a big influence in that. With a flat start, there may not be many riders managing to go up the road and in that case the stage can be controlled for example by Visma (who also wants the points jersey and can distance Kaden Groves here, likely) and Lotto Dstny. Wout van Aert can certainly win in a finale like this with good form. Corbin Strong, Jhonatan Narváez, Ide Schelling and perhaps Quinten Hermans may also be quite strong sprinters in such a finale and may have their teams collaborate in the assistance to keep things together for a sprint. It is very important to note that if many are trying to go on the breakaway, these riders may all give it a go as well as on paper, a large and strong breakaway would be impossible to control on a day like this.

Breakaway cards - But the breakaway remains the most likely scenario. It is an interesting phenomenom; which is that even if the stages are perfectly suited to the breakaway, the earlier it is in a Grand Tour the less riders attack. Why? Because there are still many days left, the pressure isn't fully on yet... This leads some riders to lose opportunities to take wins.

But I think that this day was marked in the schedules of many. And it's also a day that suits many. Several riders are good enough climbers or puncheurs to really make the difference uphill such as Attila Valter, Mauri Vansevenant, Giulio Ciccone, Victor Lafay, Dylan Teuns, Pelayo Sãnchez, Mauro Schmid, Felix Engelhardt, Ion Izagirre, Jesús Herrada and Pablo Castrillo.

However you can also consider riders who aren't traditionally strong climbers and are instead strong on the flat, rolling roads. Rouleurs, in essence. Mathias Vacek, Bruno Armirail, Victor Campenaerts and Stefan Küng are all well suited for such terrain and have all already shown strong performances in this Vuelta whilst I would also add Movistar's Oier Lazkano as a very dangerous rider to hunt for the victory on this treacherous day.

The stage can be won in many ways and by many different types of riders. It can be a very very interesting day. Even from a breakaway we could have a sprint, late tactical attack, all-out uphill attacks... Or the famous 'Fuga de la Fuga' where the early attacks from the breakaway itself can succeed due to the frequent hesitation from chasing groups.

Prediction 2024 Vuelta a España 2024 stage 6:

*** Wout van Aert, Jhonatan Narváez
** Lennert van Eetvelt, Bruno Armirail, Oier Lazkano, Mauro Schmid
* Primoz Roglic, Corbin Strong, Attila Valter, Victor Lafay, Dylan Teuns, Pelayo Sánchez, Mathias Vacek, Stefan Küng

Pick: Oier Lazkano