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PREVIEW | Vuelta a Espana 2024 stage 16 - Will Ben O'Connor survive Primoz Roglic and Enric Mas offensive at Lagos de Covadonga?
CyclingTuesday, 03 September 2024 at 09:32
Stage 16 of the Vuelta a España will be yet another day in the mountains. In the Asturias, the peloton will tackle another brutal mountain stage, this time with the finale at the famous Lagos de Covadonga. Can Ben O'Connor hold on to the race lead once again? We preview the stage ahead.
The third week starts with the final day of high mountains in the Asturias and it doesn't get any easier. Three difficult steep climbs and the last of which is the famous Lagos de Covadonga. There are 4000 meters of climbing here it's another day that can be key for the overall classification, as the peloton will be saying goodbye from the Asturias. Early in the 182-kilometer long stage there aren't big climbs but they are present, as always...
Stage 16: Luanco - Lagos de Covadonga, 182 kilometers
The Mirador del Fito opens things up serious for the day, it is 7 kilometers at 8% and summit with 104 kilometers to go. Shortly after the Alto de Bada adds a little more damage. But the peloton will eye the Collada Llomena which is the steepest climb of the day. The ascent is 7.5 kilometers long at 9.4%, incredibly steep and constant. It summits with 56 kilometers to go. Then it is all the way down to the final climb.
Collada Llomena: 7.5Km; 9.4%; 56Km to go
The final climb is 12 kilometers long at 7% but it is important to note that there are several flat and downhill sections in the final kilometers that lower the average. The first 8 kilometers average 9% and are very difficult. From there on there are some resting bits which lead to a more explosive section where attacks can also be launched.
Lagos de Covadonga: 12Km; 7%
The Weather
Map Vuelta a España 2024 stage 16
Cold... In fact legitimately cold for the summer. The riders will reach the finish line with temperatures of just over 10 degrees, cloudy skies and possible rain. It is a COMPLETELY different race than what the riders found at the start and it may be a struggle for some. Some sketchy descents can also make the difference here if on wet roads.
The Favourites
GC Fight - Ben O'Connor is still in red... And with over a minute of lead! I thought in Cuitu Negru he'd lose it but I was proven wrong, he had a good day and raced at his best. If he keeps doing it I fully believe he can keep the race lead another day, but it will certainly be hard. Preventing time losses will be complicated because this final climb (and stage overall) leave no place for hiding. He NEEDS to be at his best to maintain the red jersey.
Primoz Roglic is there, it is likely that he jumps to the race lead but far from certain. In the high mountains, and this is one of those days, he is not as able to make the difference. I expect Enric Mas to race at the same level and also attack from far because in the final kilometers the climb becomes more explosive and to the style of the Slovenian. Movistar and Quick-Step worked on two days now for a long time and then lost time. So they will not do that here, no team likely will do that work.
Mikel Landa, Richard Carapaz, David Gaudu, Carlos Rodríguez and Mattias Skjelmose are all so close to each other on GC and the differences between each other is minimal; feelings on the day matter more than anything here. Florian Lipowitz and Sepp Kuss are also to consider on the day. I do expect gaps to open a bit more here.
Can the breakaway win again - Like Cuitu Negru, I deem it unlikely. As we can see there are teams with intentions of attacking, pushing the pace and very hard climbs on the menu. The move did work this Sunday but only because top climbers were involved, and the same must happen here again. We may have Aleksandr Vlasov trying to get in the break again, or perhaps the likes of Adam Yates and Eddie Dunbar both having stage wins and little to lose - with a GC Top10 possible if the risk pays off.
Guillaume Martin, Lorenzo Fortunato, José Felix Parra, Michael Woods, Mattia Cattaneo, Harold Tejada, Attila Valter, Sam Oomen, Mauro Schmid and Max Poole are all cards to play. It will take a great day and good tactics to win on the day, but it is one for the pure climbers.
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Prediction 2024 Vuelta a España 2024 stage 16:
*** Primoz Roglic, Enric Mas
** Mattia Cattaneo, Eddie Dunbar, Mattias Skjelmose, Mikel Landa
* Michael Woods, Harold Tejada, Attila Valter, Max Poole, Richard Carapaz, Sepp Kuss, Ben O'Connor, David Gaudu, Pavel Sivakov
Pick: Enric Mas
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- yeah, that’s a more fair assessment. “reaching mathieu’s level” doesn’t mean you’re planning to replicate his whole career. the former IS doable, potentially. it’s just the latter that likely is not.OCexile25-12-2024
- That’s not entirely true. Every person follows their own development path and peaks differently. Remco and Primoz had hardly started cycling before elite level. Jonas was pretty much under the radzr until he unexpectedly had to take over responsibility at JV. Some guys only get real good in their thirties others have peaked mid-twenties. You can’t tell in advance how and upto what level they will progress, obviously his career might not have MVDPs length but nothing says he could not end up doing a few seasons at his level.Mistermaumau25-12-2024
- well, del grosso is 21 right now. when mathieu was a year younger than that, he was already winning elite level world championships, not U23. i think del grosso will be a very good pro for years, but if he was really going to be the next van der poel someday, he’d already have to be at that level right NOW. van der poel was showing signs of true greatness when he was 15-16. THAT’S what generational talent looks like.OCexile25-12-2024
- Yeah.... gear 😅.mikolajjj24-12-2024
- It shouldn’t be about expectations in the first place should it? Besides, if you look at everyone’s calculations as a whole they don’t add up in the first place. There’ll be 2-3 riders with a 50% chance, a dozen with 10 or 20% and dozens more with a 5% so we’re expecting at least 2 if not 3 winners. Remind me again who won before her? Says it all about using data to decide on participation.Mistermaumau24-12-2024
- Ok, happy I’m not too interested in this team coz’ the account of what happened is really hard to follow.Mistermaumau24-12-2024
- The UCI is worse than USA CyclingVeganpotter24-12-2024
- It's not like they wanted her to not win😅 She had an outstanding Olympics. But there's a reason why she wasn't expected to win the road race and that's ok. Things like this happen and it's great...better than seeing expected winners win.Veganpotter24-12-2024
- Bruyneel ? The man with a lifetime ban from cycling...why do you keep giving him and his doper mate, Armstrong, a platform?DJ24-12-2024
- yeah, agree. on the subject of being a “complete rider,” i do think that’s getting more interesting. mathieu seems to have decided he wants to get much better at climbing the the high mountain passes. he appears to be looking for new challenges, which should be interesting to watch. in most cases you’d dismiss a goal like that at age 30, but it’s mvdp. he’s never going to climb with the real climbers, but if he can improve enough it could open up stage wins when the parcours isnt just purely toothy and punchy.OCexile24-12-2024