PREVIEW | Vuelta a Espana 2024 stage 16 - Will Ben O'Connor survive Primoz Roglic and Enric Mas offensive at Lagos de Covadonga?

Stage 16 of the Vuelta a España will be yet another day in the mountains. In the Asturias, the peloton will tackle another brutal mountain stage, this time with the finale at the famous Lagos de Covadonga. Can Ben O'Connor hold on to the race lead once again? We preview the stage ahead.

The third week starts with the final day of high mountains in the Asturias and it doesn't get any easier. Three difficult steep climbs and the last of which is the famous Lagos de Covadonga. There are 4000 meters of climbing here it's another day that can be key for the overall classification, as the peloton will be saying goodbye from the Asturias. Early in the 182-kilometer long stage there aren't big climbs but they are present, as always...

The Mirador del Fito opens things up serious for the day, it is 7 kilometers at 8% and summit with 104 kilometers to go. Shortly after the Alto de Bada adds a little more damage. But the peloton will eye the Collada Llomena which is the steepest climb of the day. The ascent is 7.5 kilometers long at 9.4%, incredibly steep and constant. It summits with 56 kilometers to go. Then it is all the way down to the final climb.

The final climb is 12 kilometers long at 7% but it is important to note that there are several flat and downhill sections in the final kilometers that lower the average. The first 8 kilometers average 9% and are very difficult. From there on there are some resting bits which lead to a more explosive section where attacks can also be launched.

The Weather

Cold... In fact legitimately cold for the summer. The riders will reach the finish line with temperatures of just over 10 degrees, cloudy skies and possible rain. It is a COMPLETELY different race than what the riders found at the start and it may be a struggle for some. Some sketchy descents can also make the difference here if on wet roads.

The Favourites

GC Fight - Ben O'Connor is still in red... And with over a minute of lead! I thought in Cuitu Negru he'd lose it but I was proven wrong, he had a good day and raced at his best. If he keeps doing it I fully believe he can keep the race lead another day, but it will certainly be hard. Preventing time losses will be complicated because this final climb (and stage overall) leave no place for hiding. He NEEDS to be at his best to maintain the red jersey.

Primoz Roglic is there, it is likely that he jumps to the race lead but far from certain. In the high mountains, and this is one of those days, he is not as able to make the difference. I expect Enric Mas to race at the same level and also attack from far because in the final kilometers the climb becomes more explosive and to the style of the Slovenian. Movistar and Quick-Step worked on two days now for a long time and then lost time. So they will not do that here, no team likely will do that work.

Mikel Landa, Richard Carapaz, David Gaudu, Carlos Rodríguez and Mattias Skjelmose are all so close to each other on GC and the differences between each other is minimal; feelings on the day matter more than anything here. Florian Lipowitz and Sepp Kuss are also to consider on the day. I do expect gaps to open a bit more here.

Can the breakaway win again - Like Cuitu Negru, I deem it unlikely. As we can see there are teams with intentions of attacking, pushing the pace and very hard climbs on the menu. The move did work this Sunday but only because top climbers were involved, and the same must happen here again. We may have Aleksandr Vlasov trying to get in the break again, or perhaps the likes of Adam Yates and Eddie Dunbar both having stage wins and little to lose - with a GC Top10 possible if the risk pays off.

Guillaume Martin, Lorenzo Fortunato, José Felix Parra, Michael Woods, Mattia Cattaneo, Harold Tejada, Attila Valter, Sam Oomen, Mauro Schmid and Max Poole are all cards to play. It will take a great day and good tactics to win on the day, but it is one for the pure climbers.

Prediction 2024 Vuelta a España 2024 stage 16:

*** Primoz Roglic, Enric Mas
** Mattia Cattaneo, Eddie Dunbar, Mattias Skjelmose, Mikel Landa
* Michael Woods, Harold Tejada, Attila Valter, Max Poole, Richard Carapaz, Sepp Kuss, Ben O'Connor, David Gaudu, Pavel Sivakov

Pick: Enric Mas