PREVIEW | Tour de Pologne 2023 stage 4 - Merlier, Kooij, Gaviria and Bennett battle for meaningful sprint win

Preview. The Tour de Pologne has had an explosive couple of days but on stage 4 the riders return to the eastern European plains and the sprinters will have another chance.

A pan-flat day on the fourth day of racing in Poland. There are 850 meters of ascending throughout the day with only a tiny hilltop early in the day to attribute KOM points. Most of the day however is simple in the eastern European plains.

The finale into Opole will be different from the past one, this one in an urban environment - also different from the final day. It will be fast, it will be trecherous. There will be a few smooth turns just before the 1 kilometer to go banner, and a sharp right corner with 500 meters to go. The finishing straight is perfectly straight and flat, ideal for the pure fast men.

The Weather

Strong wind from the southwest. Another tense day where crosswinds will be real and the GC riders will need to be very attempt to possible echelon attempts. The riders will find a tailwind in the final kilometers then, a breakaway stands a chance if they carry speed into the final kilometers. Tailwind all the way into the final corner, if felt a crosswind in the sprint.

The Favourites

Tim Merlier - Merlier did not come with a leadout however van Lerberghe still managed to deliver Merlier perfectly on the opening day. That's usually where Merlier performs, but there is no reason why he wouldn't be able to repeat the result.

Olav Kooij - Jumbo-Visma played their cards right on the opening day but Kooij couldn't overtake Merlier in the final sprint. Somehow the Belgian is incredibly good on the opening days but that consistency doesn't usually remain. Kooij is the team leader in Jumbo and I would expect him to be just as consistent.

Sam Bennett - Bennett is a bit of a mystery. He opened up his sprint early in the opening stage but then sat up. It's not easy to know if that was because of possible lack of form or he spent too much on that particular one, but having finished fourth he's given signs that he can and with no climbs on the route there's nothing stopping him from being in contention.

Fernando Gaviria - Gaviria was there in the first sprint, following the wheels and riding to third. He had the speed, he showed that with the right positioning he can sprint to the win.

The past sprint saw a challenge but ultimately the top four sprinters in the top four places. That's unlikely to happen once again, a lot can happen in a sprint and this one does feature a crucial corner close to the finish line, positioning will be key into that one. Pascal Ackermann and Gerben Thijssen are the two riders who in my opinion could have the speed to win.

But for a top result plenty have chances. There isn't really any defining quality between them all, it's a matter of nailing the positioning and having all the pieces fit on the day, quality wise they're all quite similar. Max Walscheid and Maciej Paterski finished fifth and sixth respectively in the first sprint which was surprising as they're a rouleur and puncheur respectively, displaying well how open the finale can be.

Here it can be the same pretty much. Besides all the numbers above we can also count on Stanislaw Aniolkowski, Jakub Mareczko, Matteo Moschetti, Edward Theuns, Marijn van den Berg, Paul Penhoët and David Dekker.

Prediction Tour de Pologne 2023 stage 4:

*** Tim Merlier, Olav Kooij
** Sam Bennett, Fernando Gaviria
* Pascal Ackermann, Gerben Thijssen, Max Walscheid, Jakub Mareczko, Stanislaw Aniolkowski, Arvid de Kleijn

Pick: Olav Kooij