PREVIEW | Tour de Pologne 2023 stage 3 - 15% climb to decide important GC day

Preview. Stage 3 of the Tour de Pologne will be another day for the overall classification with a hilltop finish where differences are expected.

The third stage of the race will be a very difficult one. A classic Polish day of racing, and by that of course I am referring to the start and finishing locations which will be the biggest challenge for commentators on the day to pronounce! However riders find a hard day, 300 meters of climbing, a lot focused in the first kilometers. A punchy start and two categorized climbs can see a strong breakaway going up the road, however simultaneously it is very early in the race to see meaningful groups having the freedom to be formed.

The riders don't find much flat terrain however. Even after the two classified ascents (3.3Km at 7.2%; 7.7Km at 5.1%) there are two more ascents where in the peloton some will struggle. Then there will be some rest, but a climb will come closer to the finish where damage will be done. It's 4.5 kilometers long at 6%, again not a brutal one but it will thin down the field, it summits only with 16 kilometers to go - with the KOM sprint a bit later on, and a fast descent into the finishing climb.

With 2 kilometers to go the riders take two tricky corners, there will be a very very fast run-up to that spot, and then it begins to drag uphill. The attacks won't surge there however, but instead in the final 900 meters which average almost 9%. It's a pure anaerobic effort, the toughest gradients of 15% are from 700 to 400 meters to go, the differences can be made there, however one way or another this will suffocate the riders, and the run-up to the line will be a struggle to survive with whichever legs the riders have left.

The Weather

Strong western wind. It will make it a tense day, crosswinds will be present in some places and the risk of there being splits is real, it will make the day more demanding. The final kilometers will be almost completely with crosswinds, it won't be either good or bad for those looking to attack.

The Favourites

Matej Mohoric - Mohoric is not a specialist on the steep climbs, but he's punchy enough in this field to win. Having won today's stage will make him perhaps the man to beat tomorrow as the final ascent is shorter and more explosive. The day features a lot of climbing but no big attacks will come before the 15% ramp. He's in the race lead and can strike.

João Almeida - This isn't really a finale where teams can play tactically, it's all about positioning into the final climb and then having legs, a fully anaerobic effort where slipstreaming matters little actually. Also not ideal for João Almeida who prefers the high mountains, however he's got great form shown today, and he has proven in the past to also be able to ride quite well in these steep walls.

The finale tomorrow should see the very same faces in the front. The day features climbs but it's all about the final one. Today a group of riders looked superior to the rest and the Top10 should have the same names, the same riders will be suited to the finale. All were a little below the top two but can put on a bigger fight, specially as the shorter ascent may see more riders with legs into the sprint.

Michal Kwiatkowski, Oscar Onley and Samuele Battistella may be more favoured as they are puncheurs. On the opposite side you have Ilan van Wilder, Lenny Martínez, Eddie Dunbar, Lennert van Eetvelt, Sylvain Moniquet and Rafal Majka. Lightweight riders may also be slightly favoured as in those gradients every kg will weight.

Prediction Tour de Pologne 2023 stage 3:

*** Matej Mohoric, João Almeida
** Michal Kwiatkowski, Lenny Martínez, Ilan van Wilder
* Oscar Onley, Samuele Battsitella, Eddie Dunbar, Sylvain Moniquet, Lennert van Eetvelt, Rafal Majka

Pick: João Almeida