On the 4th of August, Sunday, the women's peloton will take on the Olympic Games' road race in Paris. One of the most important and prestigious events of the season, a great race is expected in Paris featuring all of the biggest female stars of road racing! The Dutch team face off against World Champion Lotte Kopecky, Elisa Longo Borghini and more.
The race will take place in and around Paris for a whole 158 kilometers. A very long day on the bike packed with small climbs all throughout, reminiscent of a spring classic. It will be that kind of rider that it'll suit the most, endurance will be key, and alongside a few very explosive sections, the peloton will then find a final circuit with two laps that have three ascents each. It's not a climbers' course and is open for many riders, but it will still feature some 1500 meters of climbing which does make it somewhat difficult to imagine a sprinter taking the win.
The race starts off in the center of Paris and after 10 kilometers it leaves towards it's outskirts where they will find some hilly terrain. The race is never truly flat, it features small climbs all around but unlike the men's race, this one is more likely to be decided in the final third within the final circuit of the race within the city of Paris itself.
The riders enter the circuit through the cobbled climb that is the Côte de la Butte Montmare. The ascent is 1.1 kilometers long at 5.6%, with a few twists on the cobbled roads. From there on the riders will officially be in the final two-lap circuit, that features three small climbs.
800 meters at 5.2% (39.5 and 20Km to go), 600 meters at 5.3% (34.5and 15Km to go) and the climb to Montmare (47, 28 and 9.5Km to go) which should headline the race which is 1.1Km at 5.6%. This is a circuit however where you can't wait to make the difference in the finale.
After the final climb there is a small descent and ultimately 5 pan-flat kilometers across the Seine until they reach the finish line, over the rider and by the Jardin du Trocadero, overviewing the Eiffel Tower.
The Weather
A warm day, likely not sunny, but without rain. The roads should be dry and there will be a western breeze which may favour early attacks as the riders come back to Paris with a tailwind. But the weather shouldn't make any meaningful difference here.
The Favourites
Netherlands - The Dutch are certainly the main favourites for this race. But be warned, the same was said of the World Championships last year and they weren't able to use their numbers to win the race; instead they were beaten by a stronger rival. Ellen van Dijk is in the four-rider team but she doesn't have the form she hoped for. She won't be a winning candidate, but likely will be attacking early on or controlling the breakaway until the final circuit. The team have Lorena Wiebes and Marianne Vos who can sprint to victory here and so a conservative race is within their plan without a doubt. Meanwhile Demi Vollering will be tasked with covering attacks, likely from Lotte Kopecky specifically but other rivals too. It is in my opinion the strongest team but they need to have a good day and for Vos and Wiebes to not have an off-day such as in Glasgow.
Lotte Kopecky - Yes Kopecky, and not the whole Belgian team. The Belgians will need to try and control the race until the Paris circuit, but because there is such a big difference and four riders, they likely will devote her teammates to keeping it together for as long as possible. This race is much shorter than the men's event and so breakaways aren't as threatening. Kopecky, in the final circuit, has the explosivity to make the difference in the climbs and the sprint to win in any group towards the finale. She will be a big danger for the Dutch (mostly her teammates) but the lack of depth in her team may prove costly.
Italy - Four strong riders. Elisa Balsamo may struggle on the climbs but her role will be similar to that of Lorena Wiebes. Elena Cecchini will be tasked with working whilst Elisa Longo Borghini will certainly attack the finale after proving her great form by winning the Giro Donne in front of Kopecky; and Silvia Persico will have a mixed role, likely trying to preserve her sprint but definitely having the quality to follow some big attacks.
We will have a dangerous British team with five riders coming in (although I'm not sure how that's allowed), they can certainly use their depth to be ahead of the competition whilst Georgi Pfeiffer is a very strong rider in the classics and Anna Henderson may also have a say in the outcome of the race after taking the silver medal in the time-trial event. Time-trial winner Grace Brown will also be of tremendous danger leading Australia, she will look to anticipate her rivals and alone she could very well take the win.
On the climbs we can certainly expect strong performances from Poland's Katarzyna Niewiadoma, Denmark's Cecillie Uttrup Ludwig, Germany's Liane Lippert and Antonia Niedermaier, Switzerland's Elise Chabbey, France's Juliette Labous, Spain's Mavi García, Austria's Christina Schweinberger, South Africa's Ashleigh Moolman-Pasio, New Zealand's Niamh Fisher-Black and of course you can not count out USA's solo attack specialists Chloé Dygert and Kristen Faulkner. Arlenis Sierra (Cuba) and Blanka Kata Vas (Hungary) could also do quite well in such an explosive race, eying a sprint.
Prediction Paris 2024 Olympic Games women's road race:
*** Lotte Kopecky, Marianne Vos
** Lorena Wiebes, Demi Vollering, Elisa Longo Borghini
* Elisa Balsamo, Silvia Persico, Georgi Pfeiffer, Grace Brown, Katarzyna Niewiadoma, Cecillie Uttrup Luwdwig, Antonia Niedermaier, Juliette Labous, Mavi García, Christina Schweinberger, Kristina Faulkner, Arlenis Sierra
Pick: Elisa Longo Borghini
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