Paris - Paris (Trocadero), 274.5 kilometers
The race starts off in the center of Paris and after 10 kilometers it leaves towards it's outskirts and some hilly terrain, where plenty attacks are expected. Until kilometer 40 we will have plenty small ascents where a strong group can go up the road. Afterwards we've got a few hours of rolling but mostly flat terrain.
From kilometer 165 to 205 there will be an hour of racing with six small ascents where attacks may happen both in the breakaway or peloton, these should antecede the final circuit and could create a valuable selection. None of them are overly hard, all are big-ring climbs where big speeds can be reached, but that is what makes this course so dangerous, because many riders will have the opportunity to create gaps whilst the strongest climbs will have a hard time making big differences or closing gaps even on the climbs.
After a small flat section the riders head back into the center of Paris and they will have a final circuit to handle, which includes a few climbs.
The riders enter the circuit through the cobbled climb that is the Côte de la Butte Montmare. The ascent is 1.1 kilometers long at 5.6%, with a few twists on the cobbled roads. From there on the riders will officially be in the final circuit, that features three small climbs.
800 meters at 5.2% (39.5 and 20Km to go), 600 meters at 5.3% (34.5and 15Km to go) and the climb to Montmare (47, 28 and 8.5Km to go) which should headline the race which is 1.1Km at 5.6%. This is a circuit however where you can't wait to make the difference in the finale.
Montmare is not hard enough to make any serious differences or cut big gaps. This is a race where early attackers should be able to benefit, and in the final circuit that is no exception. After the final climb there is a small descent and ultimately 5 pan-flat kilometers across the Seine until they reach the finish line, over the rider and by the Jardin du Trocadero, overviewing the Eiffel Tower. Whoever wins this race will be a worthy winner; although the race is not the hardest, it will require a huge tactical aspect and lots of decisions, alongside a lot of endurance.
The Weather
Map Paris Olympic Games 2024 men's road race
The days leading up to the race see some rain, which may make some roads slippery. On the day of the race itself though the skies should be cloudy but dry, with a western breeze being felt by the riders. It shouldn't make much difference in the race, there are constant direction changes early and late in the race; and the urban aspect of the final hour of racing makes the wind pretty much null.
Tactics
Ordinarily in a cycling race the domestiques will work throughout the day and the leaders will come out towards the end of the race and use their energy in the most efficient way. But this is anything but a regular race. We do not have full seven or eight-rider teams, but instead a few teams with four riders, and many with three, two, one... The reigning Olympic Champion Richard Carapaz, despite being in great form, could not even make it as Ecuador was only allowed to have one rider in. This, in my opinion, is completely ridiculous.
If the race was expected to end in a sprint, or as in Tokyo, have a major climb that set a clear list of big favourites, then a few national teams for sure would agree on putting a rider in front and try to control the race. Here that is not the case. The race is 274 kilometers long... Even at a very fast 45Km/h average speed this would be a 6 hour race. I guarantee there will not be any team that will want to work for 4 or 5 hours to control a breakawaway on terrain that is hilly, but a special kind of hilly. This race lacks climbs where the big favourites can without a doubt make the difference, or close big gaps. It is packed with small ascents and lots of flat roads.
So... We should not have teams wanting to control, we have 6 hours of racing and plenty small climbs. This ultimately favours those who attack early, because behind the lack of clear absolute favourites means everyone will look to shift the pressure to their rivals. I expect a lot of 'group 2 syndrome' despite it being such a massive event, and the teams with the most numbers won't look to control but instead use those numbers to put men in the breakaway and keep their other riders following wheels all day long behind. That is what DS' will advise here, avoid having responsibility at all costs.
We will very likely see big attacks right from the start including favourites. Big riders such as Mathieu van der Poel and
Wout van Aert will be followed all day long naturally. But 'second cards' such as their teammates Dylan van Baarle or
Jasper Stuyven can at their best be just as good in such a course but will not be covered as much, which means there is a very high chance we will have a 'surprise' winner. This isn't a race to have a leader and work for him (adding to the fact that these riders are only teammates 1 or 2 times a year at best), they race for different teams throughout the year in the most part and will not have much will of sacrificing their own chances for others. You understand that chaos is ensured. All teams will want to be ahead of the competition all day long, I expect attacks from the start from the small and big teams alike... The final circuit still is difficult and the 6-hour race makes it more possible for the big favourites to close down gaps in the end, but it will be very difficult to control.
The Teams
Belgium - The strongest team, in my opinion. Wout van Aert showed form in the time-trial and I expect him to be good here. A long race, with lots of non-steep climbs and a flat sprint... This is perfect for him. But he knows the sprint will matter little to nothing here, it's a race decided on the attacks and tactics, but he is good at it. The team have an incredibly strong Jasper Stuyven and Tiesj Benoot as 3rd/4th cards who are likely to attack the race from the start, they both have the endurance and quality to win an Olympic title do not underestimate them and Belgium's tactics.
The Belgian can also count on Remco Evevenepoel who is in great form, without pressure and is also very much a huge danger for this circuit. He will be marked, that is a problem for him, but if he gets a gap at some point in the race over his rival he will be a nightmare to chase and dare I say, almost impossible to bring back. A major winning candidate, but at the same time one of the few riders who could legitimately sacrifice himself for Wout van Aert (but ONLY if it is late in the race and there are riders that need to be brought back) taking into consideration his extreme success and how much he has already won recently. But the smart tactic for Belgium is to have him attack a lot, obviously.
Netherlands - Three riders, and a much less strong collective than Belgium... The Dutch may have a problem. Dylan van Baarle is very good on this type of course but his form is definitely a question after a rocky summer... Daan Hoole is a good rider in form but not strong enough to battle with the big guns for a victory here I reckon. He may however work to control a breakaway if required, although the team will lose 33% of it's riders as valuable weapons for this classics-style race if it happens.
Mathieu van der Poel is the obvious leader, a true talent in this type of race, and he is close to perfect for it. But in order for him to win the Netherlands have to arrive at the final circuit with a favourable position and a front group within reach which is the hard task. But on the climbs he can make some difference, endurance is his field... His form at the Tour was not really good but I believe he will be at his best level here, it is the exact same preparation he did towards the World Championships last year.
France - The home team. I deposit a lot of confidence with the French, they have a clear plan and chose their team taking that into consideration, national coach
Thomas Voeckler said right away.
Christophe Laporte, in terrific form at the Tour de France, is a golden victory contender taking into consideration his climbing, endurance and sprinting abilities; adding to the fact that despite being just as good in such a course, he will not be marked as van der Poel and van Aert. Laporte won the European Championships last year out of pure power, not even relying on his sprint. Having that and the fans' cheering on his side can be a perfect mix.
But the French have four riders, all classics specialists. Julian Alaphilippe has just won in the Czech Tour and looks to have nailed his preparation. In my honest opinion, he is no longer a match for someone like van der Poel on a head to head. But as he's done this year, he will likely be used as an attacker all day long and to try and take advantage of 'group 2 syndrome' behind. He won a stage at the Giro d'Italia using this exact tactic. The team has also Valentin Madouas (winner of the hilly and long Bretagne Classic last year) and Kévin Vauquelin (Tour de France stage winner) as well, all riders who can handle the climbs very well. This is a very strong team, the closest to Belgium in my opinion.
Denmark - Four riders but great quality. It must be said
Michael Morkov is not a rider that could fight for a result here, he made the trip because of the track events. Hence Denmark could potentially deploy him to work throughout the race. The focus will mostly be on
Mads Pedersen, former World Champion in a similar hilly and urban course. The Dane withdrew from the Tour de France but is a perfect rider for such a long and tactical race.
Mattias Skjelmose and
Mikkel Bjerg are very dangerous second cards for the team to cover and make their own attacks.
Slovenia - Four riders, but lacking their star. Tadej Pogacar has opted out of the race, much due to the national team not selecting his fiancée Urksa Zigart to the women's races which did not make any sense. They reap what they sow, is the accurate expression. An injured Primoz Roglic is not here either. The team is still strong but Matej Mohoric did not find form during the Tour de France, Jan Tratnik is vocally exhausted... Luka Mezgec is certainly an interesting outsider for this course and Domen Novak adds some climbing ability. However this is a team that lacks that top end I think, that they were initially going to have with Pogacar.
Great Britain - The last four-rider team. Questions are valid however. Joshua Tarling a massive talent and in great form, he could be dangerous if he finds himself alone but there is a lot of distance and tactical need, which comes with age and experience and will be rough on him. Fred Wright was selected but in all honesty he has not been himself this season, and last competed at the Tour de France where he arrived out of the time limit on a stage. Tom Pidcock has just won the MTB race, but that was his main focus. This course, being long and without steep climbs will be difficult for him to make the difference, but definitely he is a candidate. Stephen Williams is a brilliant puncheur but the climbs are not his type here... The team can make good use of their numbers but their only chance of winning the race is by doing that exactly, not seeking a head-to-head with the big favourites.
USA -
Brandon McNulty, Matteo Jorgenson and
Magnus Sheffield coming in. Three riders that in my opinion can all win this race, all are brilliant time-trialists who can roll very well in a group or by themselves... And they definitely won't be covered as some of their rivals. McNulty and Sheffield are definitely riders that should be attacking early on, they can be a headache for any chasing group, whilst Jorgenson should try to make his own race and focus on the final circuit. He has the legs to match the very best here I have no doubt, and can win in the classics as he's done in Dwars door Vlaanderen.
Spain - A team that has to attack. Juan Ayuso's presence here is a huge question mark honestly I don't know what to expect of him. Movistar duo Alex Aranburu and Oier Lazkano impressed at the Tour de France, but they have to anticipate the big favourites. Don't underestimate Lazkano as a rouleur and classics specialist, he is a rider to fear even for the likes of van der Poel and van Aert.
Italy - Elia Viviani is another rider just present because of the track events, there is no point in him being in this race. Italy may end up putting him to work actually, if they have confidence in Alberto Bettiol. The Italian has won Flanders in the past and is know to be a terrific rider when in form and in the long distances... Luca Mozzato is also an interesting rider, but one who relies on his sprint and this race has too many sharks for him to realistically ambition for a second place as he achieved in Flanders.
Australia - Michael Matthews in the lead, but he was not himself during the Tour de France. He's been strong this season I must say, and may find his best legs here, but Australian with Simon Clarke and Ben O'Connor do not have the same depth as other teams and may indeed have to put their chips in the race coming back together in the finale and cross their fingers that Matthews does indeed find something special.
Switzerland - Marc Hirschi, winner of the Czech Tour this weekend, is a great card to play. Under the radar, but perhaps in the same form as he had some years ago, he can do quite well on the climbs. Stefan Küng will be a rider to attack from early on and try to use his engine to put rivals under pressure.
Colombia - Santiago Buitrago and Daniel Martínez are here. There is potential in the team, but these two lightweight climbers are not riders to feature in a day-long breakaway. The climbs are not steep so they are not in their terrain; but under the right circumstances they can certainly follow some of the best and they can both handle the short efforts very well.
Germany - Max Schachmann's 9th spot in the time-trial raises the question on his form. This season he showed for the first time in years his best level again at Itzulia Basque Country, and if he has those legs here he can be very interesting. Nils Politt spent the Tour de France working for UAE but now he has the freedom, great form coming out of the race and in a breakaway he can be a nightmare for his rivals.
Ireland - Ben Healy is the man to watch. He would prefer tougher climbs but this all-day roller-coaster course is the kind that he likes, and he is a naturally very aggressive rider which I think is rather key in this course.
Canada - Michael Woods is a good puncheur but this course is not for him. The team's hopes will rely on Derek Gee, who doesn't have experience in the classics at this level but let's see, I do think that he has the power and legs to feature among the best in this terrain it's a matter of taking the step.
New Zealand - One of the most surprising underrated lineups in my opinion. Corbin Strong has just finished second and won a stage at the Tour de Wallonie I think he is in great form for this race. He and Laurence Pithie are both puncheurs with a very strong sprint and they will not be marked by rivals. Pithie does have the endurance issue, but he's had the whole summer to potentially work on it. Both can be threatening riders if taken to the line.
Eritrea - Biniam Girmay is a hero for the country and rode the Tour de France of his life. He can't be understimated, but I think this is not a race for him. The climbs will be hard, he is racing by himself and on the back of a green jersey at the Tour, I doubt many riders will be willing to work with him as a sprint should end in a defeat.
Ecuador - Without Richard Carapaz it makes it hard. Ecuador, reigning Olympic Champions, were only given one spot, which is in my opinion ridiculous. Jhonatan Narváez did earn it early this year, reaching terrific form in key moments, beating Tadej Pogacar in the first day of the Giro d'Italia... They can indeed still win I believe in his potential, but with one rider it will be hard to outsmart the competition.
Portugal - Nelson Oliveira and Rui Costa present; the latter obviously the leader. He has not been at his best form, but if he finds it he could feature among the best specially from an early attack. Experience, good endurance and little to lose, he knows how to win against the big boys.
A few other riders such as Felix Grossschartner, Alexey Lutsenko, Toms Skujins, Attila Valter and Mathias Vacek can also do well in this race but mostly they will be by themselves and against a world-class field. On their best day a Top10 can be achievable for sure, they will need some luck and a good eye to make the right decisions.
Prediction Paris Olympic Games 2024 Men's Elite Road Race:
*** Wout van Aert, Mathieu van der Poel, Christophe Laporte
** Jasper Stuyven,
Remco Evenepoel, Mads Pedersen, Matteo Jorgenson
* Tiesj Benoot, Julian Alaphilippe, Tom Pidcock, Brandon McNulty, Oier Lazkano, Alberto Bettiol, Jhonatan Narváez, Michael Matthews, Marc Hirschi, Ben Healy
Pick: Christophe Laporte
