Stage 6 of Paris-Nice sees the riders closer and closer to the sea and the final destination. On the menu this time around is a hilly stage into La-Colle-sur-Loup, a known finale in the race which features a climb that reaches 19% shortly before the finish.
The sixth day of racing at the Race to the Sun is a difficult and treacherous one. The riders start at 500 meters of altitude and slowly rise all the way into almost 1200. A flat start, with some hilltops later on in the 199-kilometer long day. The riders will then descend almost into sea level.
In the middle of it is a 6.3-kilometer climb at 4.3% which ends with 59 kiloemters to go. The main feature of the day will then be the Côte de la Côte-sur-Loup, which starts right after a first passage through the finish line.
This climb is 1.8 kilometes at 10% but the ramps go up to 19%, a climb with some switchbacks and suffocating gradients right at the bottom. This climb ends with 29 kilometers to go, and then some rolling roads follow - with an uphill trend. Then the intermediate sprint will be at the top of this entire climb the ramp is another 800 meters at 8.3% more attacks may surge.
It is an ideal spot to put in an attack for victory on the day. In the remaining 22 kilometers the riders slowly go down 300 meters in altitude, these will be very fast. The overall classification may be raced in this climb, the stage win surely will. If a sprint is to happen to decide the outcome of the day, it will be a flat and non-technical one.
The Weather
Strong eastern wind. In the hills this will be covered, but overall a headwind throughout the opening hours of the stage. However spectacle wise do not fear, the main climb will have a crosswind, whilst the following kilometers and cross and tailwind. Attacks are very likely to happen here, without a doubt.
The Favourites
Remco Evenepoel - Remco will attack. Almost every day this race he was there or thereabouts, trying to take opportunities. And that's what he does best, attacking on a steep climb may drop a few riders but not everyone here I'm sure, but if he gets a gap he's impossible to bring back. Roglic was meant to be his biggest rival but he's quite far back at the moment and did not look great at Mont Brouilly. He doesn't need to attack Roglic, but with Plapp and Buitrago jumping into the head of the GC fight, and with several riders still ahead, he still has to attack. I don't expect a move from him too much on the steep climb, but it's afterwards that he can be really dangerous.
Primoz Roglic - It's all in the legs, as you'd say. If Roglic has the same legs as Mont Brouilly I don't expect him to attack, because he likely won't be able to. However the Roglic I know has good form always and on a climb like this he can surely pull something great on a good day. On the opening day he was the only one able to match Evenepoel so I expect better legs. Sitting 15th in the GC, he's got a lot of work to do, but if he has the legs on the day he will do it because finishing 10th or 4th is the same to him. Like Evenepoel, he can also win if it comes down to a small group sprint. Aleksandr Vlasov surely won't be having to do work, he can also make a move towards the end.
Mattias Skjelmose - A mix of the two above. In my eyes Skjelmose is as strong as the two riders above currently in climbs like these. Like Roglic however he sits very far from yellow; 19th at 1:27 of Luke Plapp. He's got the sprint but also terrific legs at the moment, I believes he can make differences but most likely he can win a stage via a surprise solo attack as he will not be too covered. Certainly a man capable and deserving of a win in such circumstances - who also wants to significantly move up the GC.
Luke Plapp - The race leader looked brilliant on that day. He is not a man for the short steep climbs but he can certainly handle himself. In the false-flat sections he carries great power and won't be easy to surprise. With the yellow jersey on his back many will look at him and on a day like this it can bring him down, but as we've seen today - where he didn't really stay near the front at all in the finale - he doesn't seem to have much pressure, and that may balance things out. Chris Harper will also be of good help to him I'm sure.
Santiago Buitrago - Don't be mistaken, Santiago Buitrago's win at Brouilly was not a lucky shot. He barely lost any time whatsoever in the finale despite the extra fatigue, and these short steep climbs are perfect for him. The Bahrain rider is now second in the GC 13 seconds behind Plapp. He may attack if the Australian is under difficulties but also he may do it simply because I believe he is in great form and can take advantage from it. The Colombian has the legs to win this race, and starting this stage in perfect position. He and Pello Bilbao can be a menace to the rest of the competition in a finale like this.
It is a very dangerous finale prone to attacks. These can surge to victory on the stage or time gains in the GC, and things stand very tight at the moment. UAE have Brandon McNulty and João Almeida less than 30 seconds from the race lead at the time being; and Team Visma | Lease a Bike also have a very dangerous duo in Wilco Kelderman but specially Matteo Jorgenson. Egan Bernal should also try, whilst Felix Gall is in good form but should be more fit for the longer climbing days ahead.
Aurélien Paret-Peintre, Steff Cras and Carlos Rodríguez are all riders who did quite well at Mont Brouilly and also stand a chance of doing something on this day.
A breakaway could also succeed, don't discard that. I do not believe any team will want to work hard throughout the whole day to control a group that is too strong. Possible, but not likely. The list of contenders would not be too clear as we've only had one climbing day but there are a few riders that stand out. David Gaudu and Finn Fisher-Black are two standouts, they should do quite well on climbs like these without a doubt.
Ruben Guerreiro, Georg Zimmermann, Will Barta and Alexey Lutsenko are certainly riders who have an eye on this day and should have freedom; whilst the likes of Mads Pedersen, Laurence Pithie and Matteo Trentin can succeed from either a breakaway or a conservative day in the peloton that ends in a reduced group sprint.
Prediction Paris-Nice 2024 stage 6:
*** Remco Evenepoel, Mattias Skjelmose
** Primoz Roglic, Santiago Buitrago, Matteo Jorgenson
* Pello Bilbao, Brandon McNulty, João Almeida, Luke Plapp, Wilco Kelderman, Egan Bernal, Felix Gall, Laurence Pithie, Mads Pedersen, Finn Fisher-Black
Pick: Remco Evenepoel
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