Stage 5 of Paris-Nice is a lumpy one on paper but the weather should help the sprinters. A bunch sprint is expected in Sisteron and we should expect a lot of action with Olav Kooij, Mads Pedersen and Arvid de Kleijn as main favourites.
The fifth day of the race once again suits the sprinters. It's a rather hilly day but some can absolutely survive some uphill gradients, and this will be a good test for Milano-Sanremo. 194 kilometers on the menu and some rolling climbs to tackle.
Kilometer 80 to 153 sees four categorized climbs, all of them rolling but all will add to the fatigue throughout the day. All will be about the final kilometers into Sisteron however.
With 9 kilometers to go we've got a kilometer-long climb at 6% where more attacks or pace pushing can take place. A downhill will follow, and then after a small rise, the run-up to the line in Sisteron. A finale that is not technical in any way, it will also be flat and favour the fast men that have survived.
The Weather
Some wind from the south with meaningful strength. Overall a ride that has the riders face a cross-headwind throughout most of the day. Ultimately this will improve the chances of a bunch sprint, as attackers will also be less motivated to attack - not just the overall slower pace on the day. The finale will be furious and fast however, with a tailwind favouring the pure sprinters.
The Favourites
Olav Kooij - At first I thought puncheurs could rule this day but it will not be the case. Bunch sprint is the likely scenario, maybe only one or two sprinters will not be present. On the opening day I rated Olav Kooij the best combination of sprinter and puncheur and on this day I find it the same. The climbs shouldn't smash the field but they will leave a dent. The Visma rider should comfortably go through them and have a very strong sprint at the end, and take his second win.
Mads Pedersen - hen we've got two scenarios. Imagining the pace is quite hard through the ascents, maybe a strong breakaway goes up the road and the peloton has to ride hard all day long or perhaps the winds create some difficulties... Mads Pedersen then will be a big favourite for victory. The harder it is the more the Dane will enjoy, but even in normal conditions he definitely stands a chance of winning.
Arvid de Kleijn - And the third scenario is indeed if the day is conservative with a modest breakaway and then the final hilltops will only see fighting for positioning and no-one really pushing the pace. A regular bunch sprint then. Arvid de Kleijn in this scenario gains big points. In my opinion the Dutchman is already one of the best sprinters in the world and his leadout is extraordinarily underated. In a fast and flat sprint the Dutchman could with no doubt repeat the victory he's had on stage 2.
Riders such as Nils Eekhoff, Bryan Coquard, Danny van Poppel, Madis Mihkels, Dries van Gestel and race breakthrough Laurence Pithie would love a tough day out without some of the pure sprinters. These men do not carry as much pure speed as the riders above but can under the right conditions fight for victory, but certainly fill in a few spots in the Top10.
For a pure sprint there will be other Dutchman licking their lips. Dylan Groenewegen and Fabio Jakobsen need to perform very badly - the latter specially. Victories are needed for these sides, the pressure is without a doubt on. Gerben Thijssen is also a big candidate for the win after his success at the Volta ao Algarve. Kaden Groves, Arnaud Démare, Sam Bennett and Pascal Ackermann are also outsiders for the day.
Prediction Paris-Nice 2024 stage 5:
*** Olav Kooij, Mads Pedersen
** Arvid de Kleijn, Laurence Pithie, Gerben Thijssen
* Nils Eekhoff, Bryan Coquard, Danny van Poppel, Madis Mihkels, Fabio Jakobsen, Dylan Groenewegen, Kaden Groves, Arnaud Démare
Pick: Arvid de Kleijn
☀️ Sélection des équipes de #ParisNice 2024 ☀️ ✅ Les 18 UCI WorldTeams ✅ 🇧🇪 @lotto_dstny et 🇮🇱 @IsraelPremTech, 1ère et 2ème UCI ProTeams en 2023. ✅ 🇫🇷 @TeamTotalEnrg et 🇨🇭 @TudorProCycling, invitées par les organisateurs. ☀️ Team selection #ParisNice 2024 ☀️ ✅ The 18 UCI…
