PREVIEW | Omloop Het Nieuwsblad 2025 - UAE win? Wout van Aert attack? Philipsen and Girmay sprint battle? A lot can happen on the first cobbled classic of the year
Cycling
Omloop Het Nieuwsblad is the first cobbled classic of the season and the first out of the 'Opening Weekend'. A race with great historic significance, until today it continues to signal the start of the spring classics campaign, on the 1st of March. We preview the race ahead.
197 kilometers on the menu for the first big cobbled classic of the season. Although not as big as the April challenges it's a big day on the bike, with a warm-up for the monuments. The first half of the day should be relatively calm with only a couple of sectors and bergs, but this will change shortly after.
From 56 to 28.5Km to go we find the second set of sectors, where attacks are expected, anticipating the run-up to Geraardsbergen. Here is where team depth will kick in, with many teams looking to put pressure over the rivals and distance themselves from the responsibility of working. Here there will be four cobbled sectors, four bergs and one sector which is both cobbled and uphill, all in quick succession.
The final decisive sections come with the Muur de Geraardsbergen, summiting with 15.5 kilometers to go, needs no introduction, will be a place where any group ahead of the peloton will loose time as the leadout to the cobbles is always furious. Over the top gaps can be created, the Bosberg will follow quickly after with 11.5 kilometers to go, it’s also hard but to create gaps is much more complicated, unless if it’s a sprint over the top.
Bosberg: 800 meters; 6.5% average gradient; 13% maximum gradient; 12Km to go
Things consolidate between the two sectors and the riders within a chance of winning are usually very evenly matched, and separated in the steep gradients. From there on it’s a fast, slight downhill approach to Ninove where the riders will finish the race in familiar roads. The same technical finale of previous year won't be present, but it will nonetheless be a flat finish just outside the city center.
The Weather
Around 5 degrees all day long so quite cold, with a tiny chance of some rain. However it's the cold and specially the wind that can affect the race, as we'll have some meaningful northeastern wind.
This is a race that is decided in the final two climbs or usually, the kilometers that follow. There will mostly be some crosswind leading into Geraardsbergen; but most importantly in the kilometers following the Bosberg there will be a headwind which makes attacks less likely to succeed and bigger groups more likely to succeed with a chase. A sprint hence becomes more likely, specially as the race just does not look hard enough for the riders to create big differences.
Read also
The Favourites
Visma - Visma should have three riders here that aren't present due to injury or illness, but it's still a masterful lineup. Do not get me wrong, Wout van Aert is NOT the man to beat in this race (I know many will argue this). This is a race without a man to beat. On paper, van Aert could win in a sprint, but there's so many quality sprinters present that, as always, his best chance lies in an attack. Visma will likely try to attack and follow attacks from early on, saving van Aert and Matteo Jorgenson for the final kilometers where they will also have the ambition of attacking certainly. However they will find lots of allies in this mission, and UAE may actually be their biggest.
UAE - UAE do have riders who can sprint, but in this peloton they must attack and not trust that they can beat some of the absolute fastest men. Every single rider on the team can be a card to play... So they will attack from early on certainly. Nils Politt and Florian Vermeersch may be played earlier, and are brilliant rouleurs... Jhonatan Narváez will likely try to make the difference on the Muur; Tim Wellens can try the same and on the Bosberg; and António Morgado is an absolute wildcard but a very dangerous rider both for the climbs and the flat sections.
BORA - BORA has an excellent card in Jordi Meeus, who is a risk for such a tough finale, but in his current form he can definitely survive and then be a prime victory contender. The German team can gauge their chances after the Bosberg - if he is there, defending champion Jan Tratnik and Oier Lazkano, amongst others, can work to contain attacks... And if he is not, the team can go on the attack with several cards.
Lidl-Trek - Without Jonathan Milan (who will be present in Kuurne) or Mads Pedersen, but the American team still brings the head. Mathias Vacek is in brilliant form and will be a very dangerous rider for the final kilometers and even a sprint outsider... Jasper Stuyven, a former winner, is in the same scenario. Toms Skujins, Daan Hoole and Edward Theuns are all outsiders on a good day in this race.
Arnaud De Lie - The leader of Lotto is a rider that loves this area and these climbs. It's unlikely that the race will be decided before them, this is a race where there will still be a lot of firepower into them and the Belgian team does not have a lot of depth. He can climb as well as most, sprint as well as most... It's a matter of the pieces falling together in the way he needs, that would be best in a small group sprint.
The teams above are very strong and will have an advantage perhaps in a tactical finale, but on the final two climbs it's all up to the riders' legs. Namely, we've got some men in good form, Tom Pidcock clearly being one of them - although this race doesn't suit him too well, he can be another danger man in the final kilometers. On the climbs Dylan Teuns and Alberto Bettiol catch my eye; on the flat final kilometers the likes of Stefan Küng, Joshua Tarling, Kasper Asgreen and Jonas Abrahamsen can't be let go in any circumstance; and in the middle we have riders like Matej Mohoric, Joe Blakmore and Rasmus Tiller.
Some riders above already stand a good chance of winning in a sprint, but some riders will specifically be looking towards that. And the weather conditions favour such a finale. Nowadays very few sprinters are only sprinters, and we've got some of the world's best that can also deal with this kind of terrain very well. Besides Van Aert and Meeus who have very strong collectives, we will also see Jasper Philipsen and Kaden Groves in action. Paul Magnier, leading in Soudal - Quick-Step, makes for another very valuable sprinter who can realistically win this race as he can handle himself on the climbs.
Bryan Coquard, Mike Teunissen, Ivan Garcia Cortina, Jenthe Biermans, Oliver Naesen, Matteo Trentin, Fred Wright, Riley Sheehan, Davide Ballerini and the EF trio of Vincenzo Albanese, Madis Mihkels and Marijn van den Berg will all be riders to consider.
Prediction Omloop Het Nieuwsblad 2025:
*** Wout van Aert, Jhonatan Narváez, Arnaud De Lie
** Matteo Jorgenson, Tim Wellens, Jordi Meeus, Jasper Philipsen
* Tiesj Benoot, Nils Politt, António Morgado, Florian Vermeersch, Jan Tratnik, Mathias Vacek, Jasper Stuyven, Matej Mohoric, Tom Pidcock, Alberto Bettiol, Matteo Trentin, Marijn van den Berg, Paul Magnier, Bryan Coquard, Ivan Garcia Cortina
Pick: Tim Wellens
How: Despite the headwind finale, I think there are too many riders and teams who want to attack and prevent a sprint. Visma and UAE will want this, and UAE's depth puts them in a rather strong position. I bet on a late attack win again.
Original: Rúben Silva
Read also
Start of the Spring Classics? This way! ⬆️ #OHN25 #FLCS pic.twitter.com/ZmPSN4mjDv
— Omloop Nieuwsblad (@OmloopHNB) February 27, 2025
Just in
Play for FREE! Fantasy Tour of Flanders
Subscribe to our Daily Newsletter today!
Popular news
Latest comments
- if there is an actual weakness in wout even when completely healthy, it’s that he’s in his head too often. this has been pointed out many times by much more acute observers of cycling than ME, certainly. it may be that he’s been like this since he was a little kid. we are who we are. or that he was shaped by having faced van der poel SOOO many times. mvdp has zero second thoughts. he wastes no time at all on doubt. that has, in the past, led him to do some pretty insane things and make mistakes that wout would never have committed. but it also makes him a killer. you can see wout’s split seconds of doubt and hesitation everywhere in their head to head battles. those hesitations spill over into other races at times like dwars, when doubt creeps in. i believe that currently he is still coming back from physical problems due to injuries, but even when he’s full strength the mental game is an area of potential concern, AND potential improvement.OCexile03-04-2025
- Not only the public, just about every analyst and commentator had been piling it on. Under the circumstances I’d even say he’s showing real character. Not sure likeable Tadej would manage as well during a longer rough patch.Mistermaumau03-04-2025
- Took a while but we finally have a more nuanced analysis.Mistermaumau03-04-2025
- If I remember right, it was those same hungry journalists selling us a different story less than a year ago about the bleak future of Dutch (men’s) cycling with no possible successor for MVDP ;-)Mistermaumau03-04-2025
- Good, hopefully Jonas goes also so we get a nice duelvappaxbipmv03-04-2025
- right? i think it’s hungry journalists that fuel this, and i understand the jam they can be in trying to create stories, but you’d hate to think ANYONE is failing to appreciate how RARE someone like van der poel is (or how LUCKY we are to have both mvdp and pog racing at the same time). a little perspective is a good thing…OCexile03-04-2025
- Anyone know how long that 213km ride took? Coz without that the segment speeds don’t reveal anything surprising. If it took him Less than 5h ok but otherwise it was just some interval training for him.Jumpyjohn03-04-2025
- Hinault was even lighter than Pog at 62 kg when he won PR in 1981, beating Roger van Vlaeminck no less (albeit at the fag end of the latter's career), so it can be done.Cooldude03-04-2025
- Having to shoulder too much pressure from the Belgain public too much that he made a tactical mistake. That's what public pressure does to you. Poor Wout! Hopefully, lady luck befalls him soon.
KerisVroom03-04-2025 - If he's very lucky maybe he can podium a Tour one season, I certainly don't believe he can win it, evervappaxbipmv03-04-2025