ANALYSIS: How do Tadej Pogacar and Jonas Vingegaard’s season openers compare, and how long until they face off in 2025?

The 2025 cycling season is now well and truly underway, as Tadej Pogacar and Jonas Vingegaard began their seasons last week. Over the past three years, these two athletes have dominated headlines, and their rivalry is rapidly becoming one of the greatest chapters in the story of cycling.

As both riders embark on their 2025 campaigns, let’s give a quick recap of the rivalry so far, how they’re both looking in 2025 so far, and when they will meet for the first time since last year’s Tour.

Tadej Pogacar, the Slovenian superstar, seemed poised for unchallenged supremacy after his consecutive Tour de France victories in 2020 and 2021.

However, the emergence of Danish cyclist Jonas Vingegaard introduced an unexpected but welcome challenger. In 2022, Vingegaard dethroned Pogacar at the Tour de France, a feat he replicated in 2023, and after that 2023 win it looked the like the power was very much with the Dane and Visma.

But, the dynamic shifted once more in 2024 when Pogacar achieved perhaps cycling’s greatest-ever season with the Triple Crown, clinching victories at the Giro d'Italia, Tour de France, and the World Championships. He won 12 grand tour stages last year, as well as 2 monuments!
So, in terms of yellow jerseys won, the score is now 3-2 to Pogacar.

But that doesn’t tell the full story. In 2023, Pogacar was not at full strength at the Tour after a crash in the spring. The roles were then reversed in 2024, and Vingegaard had a horrible preparation for the Tour.
Will 2025 be the first time since 2022 we see both men at full strength again?

Pogacar began his 2025 season at the UAE Tour last week, a race he has previously dominated and his team’s home race.
Demonstrating impeccable form, he secured his third overall victory in this event and picked up exactly where he left off in 2024. The race's defining moment occurred on the Jebel Hafeet ascent during Stage 7, where Pogacar launched a decisive attack, leaving his competitors in his wake.

This performance not only secured the stage win but also secured his position as the general classification leader. Earlier in the tour, the Slovenian had already shown his climbing strength on Stage 3 at Jebel Jais, executing a well-timed surge in the final meters to claim victory. Beyond his stage wins, Pogacar had time for some fun on Stage 5, where he joined an unexpected breakaway on a flat stage.

So, not only was Pogacar in winning form in the UAE last week, he was so comfortable that he even had time to mess around in the breakaway!

Jonas Vingegaard also began his season last week, with the Dane getting thing underway at the Volta ao Algarve. It has to be said that Vingegaard’s season opener was slightly less comfy than Pogacar’s, but more impressive in different ways too.

During Stage 2's ascent of Alto da Foia, Vingegaard finished sixth, a result that left him reflecting on missed opportunities and had some fans questioning his form. Undeterred, Vingegaard delivered a masterclass in time-trailing on the final day to silence his doubters quickly. Covering the 19.6 km course in 28 minutes and 25 seconds, he not only clinched the stage victory but also snatched the GC win on the final day.

Vingegaard’s win at the Volta ao Algarve also sparked murmurs of a change in his set up, including the adoption of 150mm crank arms and a strange new saddle. Are these the keys to defeating Pogacar?

The next phases of the calendars of Pogacar and Vingegaard highlight their distinct differences in their strategic approaches. Pogacar's calendar is filled with one-day classics, as he aims to add victory after victory to his cycling CV.

His upcoming races include Strade Bianche, Milano-Sanremo (the race he is most desperate to win), and the E3 Saxo Classic and the Tour of Flanders, followed by appearances in the Ardennes classics such as Amstel Gold Race and Liège-Bastogne-Liège.

In contrast, Vingegaard's focus remains solely on stage races, with his eyes set on the Tour de France. His preparatory races include Paris-Nice, Volta a Catalunya, and the Critérium du Dauphiné, so cycling fans will have to wait some more time to see the Dane target a classic.

Their might be some good news for Vingegaard fans however. Remember, the last time Pogacar had such an intense classics season was in 2023, and that was the last time Vingegaard came out on top…

Analyzing their previous season debuts will give us an insight into whether they have similar form to previous years. Pogacar is well known for his strong stars; in 2024, he launched his season with a remarkable 80 km solo victory at Strade Bianche that ultimately foreshadowed his season of ridiculous solo victories.

The preceding years saw him clinch titles at the UAE Tour (2022) and the Clásica Jaén Paraíso Interior (2023). Remarkably, one must look back all the way to 2019, when he finished 13th at the Tour Down Under, to find a season where he didn't secure an opening race victory.

Vingegaard has also had strong season openers. His 2023 and 2024 seasons commenced with dominant performances at O Gran Camiño, where he secured multiple stage wins and the overall title. However, 2022 presented a modest start, with a 33rd place finish at the Classic de l'Ardèche.

Fans eagerly await the first direct confrontation between these two titans in 2025, as we have not seen them compete since the final stage time trial at the Tour last July.

Current schedules indicate that their inaugural face-off will occur at the Critérium du Dauphiné in June, a critical prep race for the Tour de France. But who will be in better shape by then?

So, it’s still a long few months ahead before battle commences between the sport’s best two GC riders. For now, we’ll have to make do with watching the duo sharpen their tools and prepare for battle as all roads points towards France.