ANALYSIS: How do Tadej Pogacar and Jonas Vingegaard’s season openers compare, and how long until they face off in 2025?
Cycling
The 2025 cycling season is now well and truly underway, as Tadej
Pogacar and Jonas Vingegaard began their seasons last week. Over the past three
years, these two athletes have dominated headlines, and their rivalry is
rapidly becoming one of the greatest chapters in the story of cycling.
As both riders embark
on their 2025 campaigns, let’s give a quick recap of the rivalry so far, how
they’re both looking in 2025 so far, and when they will meet for the first time
since last year’s Tour.
Rivalry recap
Tadej Pogacar, the Slovenian superstar, seemed poised for
unchallenged supremacy after his consecutive Tour de France victories in 2020
and 2021.
However, the emergence of Danish cyclist Jonas Vingegaard
introduced an unexpected but welcome challenger. In 2022, Vingegaard dethroned
Pogacar at the Tour de France, a feat he replicated in 2023, and after that
2023 win it looked the like the power was very much with the Dane and Visma.
But, the dynamic shifted once more in 2024 when Pogacar
achieved perhaps cycling’s greatest-ever season with the Triple Crown,
clinching victories at the Giro d'Italia, Tour de France, and the World
Championships. He won 12 grand tour stages last year, as well as 2
monuments!
So, in terms of yellow jerseys won, the score is now 3-2 to Pogacar.
So, in terms of yellow jerseys won, the score is now 3-2 to Pogacar.
But that doesn’t tell the full story. In 2023, Pogacar was
not at full strength at the Tour after a crash in the spring. The roles were
then reversed in 2024, and Vingegaard had a horrible preparation for
the Tour.
Will 2025 be the first time since 2022 we see both men at full strength again?
Will 2025 be the first time since 2022 we see both men at full strength again?
Tadej Pogacar’s first week of 2025
Pogacar began his 2025 season at the UAE Tour last week, a
race he has previously dominated and his team’s home race.
Demonstrating impeccable form, he secured his third overall victory in this event and picked up exactly where he left off in 2024. The race's defining moment occurred on the Jebel Hafeet ascent during Stage 7, where Pogacar launched a decisive attack, leaving his competitors in his wake.
Demonstrating impeccable form, he secured his third overall victory in this event and picked up exactly where he left off in 2024. The race's defining moment occurred on the Jebel Hafeet ascent during Stage 7, where Pogacar launched a decisive attack, leaving his competitors in his wake.
This performance not only secured the stage win but also
secured his position as the general classification leader. Earlier in the tour,
the Slovenian had already shown his climbing strength on Stage 3 at Jebel Jais,
executing a well-timed surge in the final meters to claim victory. Beyond his
stage wins, Pogacar had time for some fun on Stage 5, where he joined an
unexpected breakaway on a flat stage.
So, not only was Pogacar in winning form in the UAE last
week, he was so comfortable that he even had time to mess around in the breakaway!
Jonas Vingegaard's first week of 2025
Jonas Vingegaard also began his season last week, with the
Dane getting thing underway at the Volta ao Algarve. It has to be said that
Vingegaard’s season opener was slightly less comfy than Pogacar’s, but more
impressive in different ways too.
During Stage 2's ascent of Alto da Foia, Vingegaard finished
sixth, a result that left him reflecting on missed opportunities and had some
fans questioning his form. Undeterred, Vingegaard delivered a masterclass in
time-trailing on the final day to silence his doubters quickly. Covering the
19.6 km course in 28 minutes and 25 seconds, he not only clinched the stage
victory but also snatched the GC win on the final day.
Vingegaard’s win at the Volta ao Algarve also sparked murmurs
of a change in his set up, including the adoption of 150mm crank arms and a strange
new saddle. Are these the keys to defeating Pogacar?
What comes next?
The next phases of the calendars of Pogacar and Vingegaard
highlight their distinct differences in their strategic approaches. Pogacar's
calendar is filled with one-day classics, as he aims to add victory after
victory to his cycling CV.
His upcoming races include Strade Bianche, Milano-Sanremo
(the race he is most desperate to win), and the E3 Saxo Classic and the Tour of
Flanders, followed by appearances in the Ardennes classics such as Amstel Gold
Race and Liège-Bastogne-Liège.
Tadej Pogacar will once again go in search of Milano-Sanremo glory
In contrast, Vingegaard's focus remains solely on stage
races, with his eyes set on the Tour de France. His preparatory races include
Paris-Nice, Volta a Catalunya, and the Critérium du Dauphiné, so cycling fans
will have to wait some more time to see the Dane target a classic.
Their might be some good news for Vingegaard fans however.
Remember, the last time Pogacar had such an intense classics season was in
2023, and that was the last time Vingegaard came out on top…
How to their openers shape up to previous years?
Analyzing their previous season debuts will give us an
insight into whether they have similar form to previous years. Pogacar is well
known for his strong stars; in 2024, he launched his season with a remarkable
80 km solo victory at Strade Bianche that ultimately foreshadowed his season of
ridiculous solo victories.
The preceding years saw him clinch titles at the UAE Tour
(2022) and the Clásica Jaén Paraíso Interior (2023). Remarkably, one must look
back all the way to 2019, when he finished 13th at the Tour Down Under, to find
a season where he didn't secure an opening race victory.
Vingegaard has also had strong season openers. His 2023 and
2024 seasons commenced with dominant performances at O Gran Camiño, where he
secured multiple stage wins and the overall title. However, 2022 presented a
modest start, with a 33rd place finish at the Classic de l'Ardèche.
When will they first face off?
Fans eagerly await the first direct confrontation between
these two titans in 2025, as we have not seen them compete since the final
stage time trial at the Tour last July.
Current schedules indicate that their inaugural face-off
will occur at the Critérium du Dauphiné in June, a critical prep race for the
Tour de France. But who will be in better shape by then?
So, it’s still a long few months ahead before battle
commences between the sport’s best two GC riders. For now, we’ll have to make
do with watching the duo sharpen their tools and prepare for battle as all
roads points towards France.
Fin MajorCycling Journalist
Fin Major is a UK-based writer at CyclingUpToDate and has been part of the team since 2024. He is the site’s main writer for FAQs and evergreen explainers and has written around 2,000 pieces for the platform. Alongside this work, he focuses on in-depth analysis and covers the biggest races on the calendar, including the Tour de France, the Giro d’Italia, and La Vuelta a España, providing clear context around performance trends, tactics, and key storylines.
In his reporting, Fin uses reputable data sources such as ProCyclingStats for results, statistics, and historical context. He places strong emphasis on careful sourcing, editorial accuracy, and updating articles promptly when new, verified information becomes available. Outside of writing, Fin is an active cyclist, which supports his practical understanding of the sport and its demands.
claps 0visitors 0
Just in
Popular news
Latest comments
- That's an excellent point. It's interesting that Vader came to that realization only after he learned that his contract wasn't going to be renewed.
santiagobenites14-11-2026 - Indeed! A reluctant gift maybe. Even more reluctant gift from Roglic! Tho I can’t see that Rog would have beaten Ving anyway.Lozza14-11-2026
- That really nasty crash in 2022 Liege must have played a big part - broken ribs, pneumothorax. You only have to look at his points tallies pre and post.Lozza14-11-2026
- Yeah, good luck getting tv and race organisers like ASO etc to part with their cash!Lozza14-11-2026
- 36 and Ineos have bought a rider on the downward slope. Bring back Dave and Rob who could manage the team. How are Ineos going to win a grand tour with people past their sell by date.paultryan200214-11-2026
- Mmmm would he be making these comments when he was on the richest team when riding. I think not i suspect. If we want money put into the sport we need sponsors who are prepared to put the money in. No disrespect but his team are 2nd or 3rd div in football terms with riders over the hill or 2nd string riders. If i was a sponsor i would be looking at what publicity am i getting back and Tudor really are just making up the numbers really.paultryan200214-11-2026
- I see (elsewhere) that Alaphilippe had more to say than what got relayed in this stub. Me: he was very good early but his latter third trajectory was the pits. His old boss did what he could (huffed and puffed) but Julian couldn't get his greatness back. Sometimes I wonder if crashes that didn't look like much changed the course of the rider.flyer14-11-2026
- I wouldn't classify it as a gift because the nasty consequences of taking it from Sepp would have been great and would persist and he knew it.flyer14-11-2026
- Ok. Tratnik's good and Red Bull's better so Tratnik may get what he wants.flyer14-11-2026
- Ok. So just saying he wasn't enjoying racing anymore is some kind of explanation? Me saying I don't enjoy his explanation is more explaining than he did.flyer14-11-2026
Loading
Write a comment