All the mountain are now behind us. The rider have flown to Rome for the last day of the Giro d'Italia, where Tadej Pogacar will celebrate his dominant overall victory. We preview the final stage where the sprinters are expected to fight for the win.
The riders fly into Rome for the final day of the competition, where they will face a circuit finish where the sprinters will have their final shot. It is a day for celebrations among those who made it all the way into the final day of racing.
On the menu, no climbs. Just 126 flat kilometers ending in Rome. The peloton finds a final circuit which ends next to the Colosseum. It is a technical one, with gentle cobbled pavement.
We've got quite a few corners in the final kilometers, an urban sprint; the final turn comes with only 300 meters to go. It is not sharp but positioning into it will be key, as the riders will launch their sprint only a few seconds after it. All about positioning into this one.
The Weather
Very small but possible chance of rain in the late afternoon. That and the wind shouldn't make much effect, but the wind will blow from the west - a headwind before the finishing straight, but in the final few meters there won't be much difference.
The Favourites
Jonathan Milan - Winner of three stages and the points classification. The pressure is off for the Lidl-Trek leader who had pretty much an ideal race. Trek could give freedom to some of his leadout men for an attack, but if they play it out for a sprint they can certainly deliver him once again and if they do, it will be hard to beat him.
Tim Merlier - But it won't be such an easy proposition as it may have looked like until a few days ago. Although Milan did not have the perfect run-up to the previous sprint, Merlier beat him fair and square. He has proven to have good legs still at this point of the race and on such a flat stage with minor cobbled features, the Soudal - Quick-Step rider will feel at home and could realistically take it once again.
Kaden Groves is certainly the best of the sprinters outside of the top two but the level between them has been higher than the rest. The Australian still has a full Alpecin team which can control the breakaway or late attacks. Alberto Dainese, Stanislaw Aniolkowski, Caleb Ewan and Juan Sebastián Molano are in my opinion candidates for a win, if they get everything perfectly and we see minor issues for either (or both) Milan and Merlier.
Laurence Pithie, Madis Mihkels, Fernando Gaviria, Tobias Lund Andresen, Giovani Lonardi and Enrico Zanoncello are also riders to keep an eye in the sprint. More could be there, but it depends on how they race before the sprint (whether they go on the attack or not).
Attacks can be expected, certainly. This is still a stage after all, and in fact a very short and fast one, where attacks can succeed against a peloton that is tired and mostly already thinking of the pizza after the finish line. Tadej Pogacar could surely attack, for fun, I would not be surprised as he does pack great legs and could work together with a strong group. I think INEOS will want to attack the race hard as they've got Filippo Ganna, Jhonatan Narváez and Magnus Sheffield who could do something on a finale such as this...
Visma, after a very disappointing race, could be said the same. Edoardo Affini has proven to be a big menace recently and will surely try it again, whilst Tim van Dijke is a second card for the Dutch team. The likes of Davide Ballerini and Michael Valgren are also very dangerous in case of a move such as this.
Prediction Giro d'italia 2024 stage 21:
*** Jonathan Milan, Tim Merlier
** Kaden Groves, Alberto Dainese
* Stanislaw Aniolkowski, Caleb Ewan, Juan Sebastián Molano, Giovani Lonardi, Filippo Ganna, Edoardo Affini, Tim van Dijke, Davide Ballerini
Pick: Jonathan Milan
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