ANALYSIS | Who reads will think will win 2024 Tour de France; What GC result will Pogacar, Vingegaard, Roglic, Evenepoel, Picock and more achieve
Cycling
Over the past week in CyclingUpToDate we have been asking you questions regarding all the favourites for the Tour de France, and who will win the race. Now it is time to collect and analyze your answers as the Grand Depart is just a few days away.
We have posted a total of 13 polls regarding the Tour, the main one being who will win the final overall classification. Alongside that, we have asked you how will the Tour go for 12 of the main overall classification contenders including Tadej Pogacar, Jonas Vingegaard, Primoz Roglic, Remco Evenepoel, Tom Pidcock and more. The votes and results presented are exclusively from the polls conducted by CyclingUpToDate, as of the 24th of June.
QUESTION: Who will win the 2024 Tour de France?
959 votes and the grand majority support the idea that Tadej Pogacar will win the Tour, despite having raced the Giro d'Italia already this season. 70% of readers voted for the Slovenian, with no-one closely following him. Jonas Vingegaard racked up 15% of the votes whilst Primoz Roglic had 7% of the votes. All other riders received only marginal votes; with Sepp Kuss and Adam Yates being the only ones with over 1%. Remco Evenepoel was quite down the results, only having 0.54% of the votes.
QUESTION: How will Jonas Vingegaard's Tour GC challenge go?
Jonas Vingegaard's form is a huge question ahead of the race and is very much one that is up in the air. The defending champion has proven himself in the past but has a massive challenge this year. Only 22% of the votes access him to take the victory whilst the podium is the most likely scenario - 39% of the votes. Top5, 10 and no GC challenge all had meaningful votes; whilst 12% of the readers believe he will abandon the race.
QUESTION: How will Tadej Pogacar's Tour GC challenge go?
In Tadej Pogacar's case, we have a very different response. The overwhelming amount of voters chose the winner option. No less than 83%, and out of the remaining, 14% votes had him on the podium. Virtually no votes were in all other options which combined had only just over 2%.
QUESTION: How will Primoz Roglic's Tour GC challenge go?
Primoz Roglic has often been named the biggest rival to the previous duo. He won the Criterium du Dauphiné but did not prove himself consistency-wise. Nevertheless, surprisingly, he had a bigger percentage of votes on victory than Vingegaard. 23% for victory, the most likely outcome being a podium with double the votes - 46%.
QUESTION: How will Remco Evenepoel's Tour GC challenge go?
Remco Evenepoel is a rider that splits opinions quite a lot. That is visible in this poll, but readers' agree that he is not the biggest of candidates for victory. Only 2% voted for that option whilst only 8% voted for podium. In fact, a whole third of the votes were on the no GC option... The Belgian certainly will try, but out of all the GC options most believe Top (with 25%) is the most likely.
QUESTION: How will Tom Pidcock's Tour GC challenge go?
Tom Pidcock is coming into the Tour looking to make his own race, which is not the best sign for INEOS Grenadiers or even himself. Perhaps a bit of a rogue figure. 45% of votes bet on missing out on a GC result whilst 40% believe in a Top10. All others are very marginal.
QUESTION: How will Egan Bernal's Tour GC challenge go?
Egan Bernal has returned to his best level this year, but finds very strong competition which will make his life very hard. Alongside Carlos Rodríguez and Tom Pidcock, the Colombian will aim for the GC at this race. A Top10 racked up 55% of the votes whilst 23% believe in a Top5. Quite superior results to those of teammate Pidcock.
QUESTION: How will João Almeida's Tour GC challenge go?
João Almeida soared to second and two stage wins at the Tour de Suisse, the Portuguese rider looks to be on the form of his life. In UAE Team Emirates he may have a supporting role, but also possible benefit from his teammate's presence. 46% votes for a Top and 29% votes for a Top5... But also 12% of votes believe he will not fight for GC, despite never having finished outside the Top10 of a Grand Tour he completed.
QUESTION: How will Adam Yates' Tour GC challenge go?
Adam Yates, who was third last year at the Tour, won the recent Tour de Suisse but the most likely result for him according to voters is a Top5, with a whole 51% of the votes. Podium could be repeated however, 21% believe it whilst an almost equal percentage of 20% believe in a Top10.
QUESTION: How will Matteo Jorgenson's Tour GC challenge go?
Matteo Jorgenson of Team Visma | Lease a Bike is also a huge question ahead of this race. Visma have admitted he may have his chance if Jonas Vingegaard doesn't reach the desired level. He has never fought for a Grand Tour, but has won Paris-Nice and finished second at the Criterium du Dauphiné this year. Only 21% of readers believe he will not fight for GC, a meaningfully small percentage. 46% voted in a Top10, 23% on a Top5 but 6% believe in a podium.
QUESTION: How will Carlos Rodríguez' Tour GC challenge go?
Carlos Rodríguez was fifth last year and won a stage ahead of Tadej Pogacar and Jonas Vingegaard; and has presented himself very well this year in the big mountain stages of several races. A Top5 received 48% of the votes, as happened last year. 16% believe in a podium for the INEOS Grenadiers rider, whilst 31% eye a Top10.
QUESTION: How will Simon Yates' Tour GC challenge go?
Simon Yates had his best Tour de France ever last year, proving that experience is worth a lot and he remains at his top level. This year Jayco have the same seven out of eight riders and although he has little mountain support, he is a contender for the Top10. 51% believe he will finish between sixth and tenth, whilst 21% believe in a Top5 and a meaningful portion of 16% believe he will focus on stage wins and/or KOM classification.
QUESTION: How will Enric Mas' Tour GC challenge go?
Lastly Enric Mas, who abandoned in the previous two editions. The Spaniard had one fourth of the votes towards no GC but instead hunting stage wins, but the overwhelming majority of votes have gone for a Top10 result - 56%.
Rúben SilvaEditor-in-Chief
A founding contributor to CyclingUpToDate since its launch in January 2022, Ruben Silva has played a central role in shaping the site’s editorial direction and long-term growth. Before joining the project, he built his experience through independent blogging at Echelons Hub and by producing race previews for Ciclismo Internacional, developing a strong analytical voice rooted in daily engagement with professional cycling.
Beyond editorial work, he has been closely involved in the expansion and coordination of CyclingUpToDate’s wider network, helping establish and support sister platforms across multiple languages. This includes ongoing collaboration with CiclismoAlDia (Spanish), CiclismoAtual (Portuguese), WielrennenUpToDate (Dutch), and RadsportAktuell (German), contributing to a shared editorial vision and consistent international coverage.
He also helps oversee editorial governance across the network, setting standards for accuracy and consistency and coordinating updates or corrections when needed.
Originally from the Porto metropolitan area in Portugal, he holds a bachelor’s degree in Geography. His path into cycling journalism was shaped not through formal media training, but through independent reporting, community engagement, and sustained on-the-ground involvement in the sport.
Over the course of his career, he has conducted approximately 100 interviews across road cycling and cyclocross, ranging from one-to-one conversations and online formats to press conferences and on-site pre- and post-race coverage. His interviews include leading riders, team managers, and prominent figures within cycling media: Tadej Pogacar, Jonas Vingegaard, Mathieu van der Poel, Primoz Roglic, Wout van Aert, Joao Almeida and Tom Pidcock; managers like Patrick Lefevere and Joxean Matxin; and YouTube personality Bryan Kennedy (BKXC)...
Within 18 months of launch, he helped grow CyclingUpToDate’s English-language platform into one of the most-read cycling news websites, built entirely from the ground up. As both a professional journalist and lifelong cycling enthusiast, his focus remains on delivering accurate, timely, and well-contextualized coverage.
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- many people advise him to grow slowly and rather do giro and/or vuelta instead of tdf. but i can totally understand that he is not satisfied with taking over once pogi declines, but instead beat him in his prime. so if he goes for tdf again, i‘m all for it. let‘s hope that pogi recovers soon!Ketterechts07-11-2026
- So gracious to offer something no-one would be prepared to pay for. The Giro is not the Tour and doesn’t command the same interest or attract the same “elite” (those willing to pay to be a part of something they consider has ego boosting potential). Roadside viewing will always largely remain free for everyone outside circuits. Introduction of a symbolic entrance to mountain climbs is worthy of exploration. Asking 1-2€ isn’t going to repulse real fans (most will spend 50-100€ on their outing that day all things included) but will prevent a portion of the total knobhead thrillseekers who will join in any large gathering as long as it’s free, just because they’re attracted to crowds, without which it it difficult for them to work up their anti-social behaviour.Jumpyjohn07-11-2026
- How is radio going to help when someone went over a cliff or bridge or off the roadside into a forest unnoticed and is laying there unconscious?Jumpyjohn07-11-2026
- Yep, next we’ll be accusing F1 drivers of avoiding Le Mans.Jumpyjohn07-11-2026
- But on what is that opinion based? Are you holding him to a different standard than others? Are you saying he should do learn to like something he doesn’t Are you saying he hasn’t achieved enough Are you saying he pretends to be better than his results? It’s actually a really strange opinion to oust if you consider it objectively or rationally. Try applying it to others or yourself by asking if not EVERYONE should then be doing more? Nobody in athletics or swimming gets criticism for not expanding their repertoire when a rival or someone else does. In fact, most who move to another event get accused of running from their rival. Opinions are boring, the reasons behind them are what count.Jumpyjohn07-11-2026
- for a medical chief to throw things like is just bad. There are already radios which were banned for spectacle. allow radios. Gps trackers are not a complete solutionabstractengineer07-11-2026
- Yeah man...PogiSloFans07-11-2026
- any rider less than 25 whether they are really ready for the position of leadership of GT is probably not the case. I think Pogi himself suffered when he was defeated by Jonas in the TDF twice. But that would be the team's job to ensure support so that they can bounce back. It requires a team and time to get back up and win after getting knocked down.abstractengineer07-11-2026
- I'm very glad he got the big late Quickstep Vuelta win and I hope he has a few left for Euskaltel-Euskadi.flyer07-11-2026
- My memories of Ivan Basso aren't good but I liked his sister Elisa ok.flyer07-11-2026
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