ANALYSIS: Kaden Groves dominates in green on stage 17, but questions remain about his new contract

Kaden Groves claimed his third stage victory of the 2024 Vuelta a Espana in a rainy sprint finish in Santander, reaffirming his status as one of the world’s top sprinters. This win not only moved him closer to defending the green jersey he secured at last year’s Vuelta but also highlighted his impressive form as the race progresses. Groves' consistency at La Vuelta has emphasised his sprinting prowess, further solidifying his reputation in the cycling world.

However, Groves’ performance at this Vuelta isn't the only headline he’s made recently. Earlier in the race, Groves surprised many by signing a contract extension with Alpecin-Deceuninck, despite widespread speculation that he would leave the team after the 2024 season. During a pre-stage 3 interview, Groves confirmed the long-standing rumours that he was set to depart Alpecin and race in new colours for the 2025 season. Yet, just before stage 4, Alpecin-Deceuninck announced that Groves had extended his contract, a decision that raises several interesting questions about the team’s future dynamics. So why is the Australian staying put?

A Strategic Move by Alpecin-Deceuninck?

Alpecin-Deceuninck’s decision to retain Groves makes sense on several fronts. The team has built an excellent infrastructure for sprinters, with a well-honed lead-out train that has delivered multiple stage wins across various Grand Tours. Their steady growth as a WorldTour team and their expertise in sprint finishes provide an ideal environment for Groves to continue thriving.

But there’s a significant complication: Jasper Philipsen. The Belgian sprinter, who narrowly missed out on the green jersey to Biniam Girmay at the 2024 Tour de France, is still regarded as the peloton’s top sprinter. Philipsen’s success, particularly when paired with superstar Mathieu van der Poel, has been a cornerstone of Alpecin-Deceuninck’s strategy at the Tour.

The Groves vs. Philipsen Dilemma

This dynamic creates an intriguing conundrum for Alpecin-Deceuninck. Groves, despite his undeniable talent, has yet to debut at the Tour de France, largely due to Philipsen’s dominance in the team. In both 2023 and 2024, Groves has been sent to the Vuelta and the Giro, where he has excelled, particularly in Spain. However, for a sprinter of his calibre, the allure of competing on cycling’s biggest stage—the Tour de France—is undeniable. Many expected Groves to seek a new team where he would be the undisputed leader in sprints, regardless of the Grand Tour.

The question now is whether Alpecin-Deceuninck can—or will—accommodate both sprinters in their plans for the Tour de France. The answer is probably not, a combination of two sprinters in one team would create more problems that possibilities.

But Groves, with his current form, certainly deserves a shot at the Tour. Both in 2023 and 2024 he’s been the number 1 pure sprinter at La Vuelta, it’s now time he targets race victories elsewhere.

A Future Clash of Titans?

As Groves continues to rack up victories at La Vuelta, the cycling world is left wondering: when will we see a head-to-head clash between him and Philipsen in the same Grand Tour? Such a showdown could definitively answer the question of who Alpecin-Deceuninck’s number one fast man is truly, but it’s highly unlikely that the team would allow the two to face off.

Until then, Groves must keep doing what he’s doing, and bide his time in the fast lane.