PREVIEW | Tour de France 2025 stage 21 - Can Tadej Pogacar win in yellow at the Champs-Élysées?

The Tour de France will come to an end. We preview stage 21, the final day of the Grand Boucle after three exhausting weeks. To wrap off the race we don't have the traditional sprint on the Champs-Élysées (although the stage will finish there), but instead an explosive finale with three ascents of the cobbled Montmartre climb. Can Tadej Pogacar attack and win the final stage of the Tour in yellow? There's a solid chance.

The final stage of the race returns to Paris but this year with a novelty. The Tour organizers have decided to make it a hard finale, one where a sprint could decide the outcome; but with the cobbled climb to Montmartre being ridden three times in an explosive final circuit (as was the case with the Olympic Games) then we could have the classics riders and GC men fighting for victory.

At the beginning of the day, will we have champagne? Because the climbing starts early on, and perhaps this will not be the case anymore - or it will happen in the neutralized section of the day. A proper stage where we may have a strong breakaway and a proper chase on.

In the final circuit then, three ascents of Montmartre (1Km at 4.8%) with the gradients reaching almost 10%. A very explosive climb, with tons of fans... It ends with 6 kilometers to go and there will be a quick run-in back to Champs-Elysées where we may not have a bunch sprint completing this race.

The organizers worked to make this an exciting finale to the Tour unlike any that has come before it, but rain could fall in Paris and if it does we could be looking at a neutralized finale. There is a good chance this will happen. Even if not, the wind will be strong on the day and the chance of rain will always exist... The strong northwestern wind may see some strong riders looking to attack early on as they have a tailwind into Paris and could take advantage of the chaos that expects the peloton in the final circuit.

Tadej Pogacar - The question is if he wants to. On paper he has no reason to let go of the opportunity, unless it rains and is very dangerous in the circuit. With Mathieu van der Poel out of the race, this is the most explosive man for such a climb and he can make the difference. Any gap over the climb can win the stage. The organizers made this chance and Prudhomme even said that it's a dream of his to see the yellow jersey winning on the Champs-Élysées so you don't have to make much math. IF UAE and Pogacar want, an understandable 'if', they have the team to control the stage and with the likes of Tim Wellens and Jhonatan Narváez, keep everything together for a mythical attack on Montmarte - if not, both of them can fight for the stage win themselves.

This is a stage that is designed to not finish in a sprint, and so yes we have to take into big consideration the puncheurs and classics specialists who have yet another opportunity to succeed. This isn't just any finish, positioning is crucial and form very important at this part of the race, so several men above shouldn't even be in contention.

We have riders who don't have the explosivity but can be incredibly dangerous if they get in the breakaway or sneak in an attack inside the final circuit away from the climbs such as Jonas Abrahamsen, Quinn Simmons, Bruno Armirail, Kasper Asgreen, Ben Healy, Frank van den Broek, Matej Mohoric, Jasper Stuyven...

On the climbs expect to see Axel Laurance give it another go, together with Frenchmen Romain Grégoire and Julian Alaphilippe they are very explosive riders who can be in a small group even amongst the very best in this terrain.

Victor Campenaerts, Matteo Jorgenson, Fred Wright, Thibau Nys and Anthony Turgis are all strong men to take into consideration whilst Wout van Aert is a wildcard. On paper he will never depend on a sprint and last year at the Olympics he flew up this climb; but he should be able to be a big threat in any scenario that can be thrown with such a profile.

And of course, although unlikely, we may still have a sprint finish to this race. Jonathan Milan and Tim Merlier have both won stages in this race and accomplished their goals so it's not like they will have extreme pressure on their shoulders, and now we can say the same of Kaden Groves who is on extraordinary form but can now win from a bunch sprint - if not counter-attacking the likes of Pogacar even.

Arnaud de Lie, Jordi Meeus, Alberto Dainese, Davide Ballerini, Tobias Lund Andresen and Jake Stewart are the kind of punchy sprinters who would ordinarily be able to survive such a circuit and have legs to sprint in the finale. We could argue the same of a top-form Biniam Girmay but there are big questions on how he's recovered from the crash of a few days ago.

*** Tadej Pogacar, Jonathan Milan, Kaden Groves
** Tim Merlier, Wout van Aert, Jonas Abrahamsen, Victor Campenaerts
* Kasper Asgreen, Axel Laurance, Jasper Stuyven, Julian Alaphilippe, Arnaud de Lie, Jordi Meeus, Jake Stewart, Biniam Girmay

Pick: Jonas Abrahamsen

How: I think the Norwegian can win again and this can either be from a breakaway or opportunist attack inside the final circuit. He is somehow not covered much, has incredible form and a massive engine that is perfect for this kind of day.