Thijs Zonneveld doesn't believe Tadej Pogacar's chances at Paris-Roubaix: "Even Stuyven has a better chance than Pogacar"
Cycling
Tadej Pogacar will become the first Tour de France winner to race Paris-Roubaix since Bradley Wiggins in 2014, and first reigning champion to do so since the ancient times of cycling (Greg LeMond in 1990-91). And the world champion never comes to race in France just to participate. Of course he wants a victory.
"It's really cool that a Tour winner is going to Paris-Roubaix," Thijs Zonneveld begins in the latest episode of In Het Wiel podcast. "The fact that he dares to do that is of course really cool. There is a chance that he will fall and his entire preparation for the Tour will be in jeopardy, but he just does it. Pogacar is actually crazy for doing that."
And why is he mad? The Dutch analyst thinks that the Slovenian has no business at the Hell of the North. "Pogacar is not going to win anyway. He has to ride off Van der Poel, Van Aert, Pedersen and Ganna on one of the sections, because he will probably be beaten in a sprint. I just can't imagine that he will win Paris-Roubaix. A podium is possible, but nobody is going to let Pogacar ride away."
It's not completely unknown grounds to Pogacar, he already got a taste of Roubaix cobbles during 2022 Tour de France when he was seen attacking with Jasper Stuyven during fifth stage. But his challengers next Sunday are not some lanky GC riders.
"I understand the UAE team management very well," Zonneveld continues. "The chance is just so small and you can also just crash really hard, which ends your season. But Pogacar just wants to win all the big races, and apparently he also thinks he can win Paris-Roubaix. Only he has to be realistic about that: even a Stuyven, who is not even a top favorite, has a better chance than Pogacar."
Biais for one, that seems to be many analysts and experts driving force.
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- You are completely wrongvappaxbipmv05-04-2025
- Tadej has a little more chance. It will be an exciting race and the most important thing is that no one gets hurt.
maria2024202405-04-2025 - Whatever happens tomorrow... it'll be a hell of a raceslappers6605-04-2025
- Exactly Tadej, the cancer of modern society. Full of good-for-nothing people who gain visibility and importance on social media mocking, humiliating (and worse things) to earn money. But it's the follower's fault, no followers, no "influencers".maria2024202405-04-2025
- Great commentCaralladas05-04-2025
- i’m such a sucker for those group-hug, happy ending moments between competitors, largely because it’s so WASN’T that way in my younger, stronger days. (on that note, i have this hope that somewhere down the road, maybe fifteen or twenty years, a middle aged wout and mathieu will go for a pleasure ride together in flanders, and reminisce about the days when they were the young, strong monsters that stalked the cobbles.)OCexile05-04-2025
- Just like Dwars door Vlaanderen, the Ronde van Vlaanderen was/is NOT on MAX. Get your facts straight.Ben04-04-2025
- You might bounce more for the same power, but not the same speed. Sending 20 kgs over a jump at 20 kph will fly just as far as 10 kgs at the same speed. Again, Galileo demonstrated this.acem8204-04-2025
- So, you're saying that doing a bunch of small hops on a bike is easier if you're heavier? Why do people buy lighter bikes, then? Why do they generally feel better and faster? An appeal to "rhythm" is not helpful either, as the right "rhythm" might be on the lighter or heavier side of things, and as it varies, it's likely a wash either way. Then we are left with the physics truth that it takes less power to lift lighter things than heavier things.acem8204-04-2025
- No, weight doesn't affect the ability to go into the wind at all. It's all CdA vs power at that point. For example, it's "obvious" that a heavier object falls faster than a lighter one. But, absent wind resistance, it's not true (Galileo demonstrated this). An appeal to "obviousness" doesn't matter when the physics is clear. And yes, you have to be able to hold everything else constant, or you can't determine anything! So, imagine a 300 watt rider at 80 kgs with a CdA of 2.0, then imagine that same rider at 70 kgs with a CdA of 2.0. (Assume ideal tire pressure for both, same bike.) Which one can ride over a bumpy road fastest? The lighter one, as he doesn't have to lift as much. That's also why when they test bikes on 5 star cobbled sectors, the MTB goes faster than even a cobble-build road bike. Even though rolling resistance is higher on a flat road, and the CdA is junk, it smooths out the cobbles, allowing the person to not lift as much as they otherwise would.acem8204-04-2025