PREVIEW | Vuelta a Espana 2024 stage 15 - BRUTAL Cuitu Negru summit finish the ultimate test for Ben O'Connor and Primoz Roglic

Stage 15 of the Vuelta a España is a day that promises! The riders are in the Asturias and they will face the mother of all steep climbs this Sunday. Ben O'Connor's race lead will be put to the test in Cuitu Negru; perhaps the toughest climb of the entire race.

3800 meters of climbing in 143 kilometers make up the bulk of the 15th stage, the last day of the second week in the race. A day with a flat start but with a finale that is the absolute opposite. We have a double ascent of a tough Asturian climb that will warm up the climbers for the action later in the day.

Two ascents of the difficult Alto de la Colladella which is 6.5 kilometers long at 8%. Three kilometers average almost 10% and the climb will be topped with 105 and 56 kilometers to go. But with what is to come in the final climb, there likely won't be any serious moves here. It is going to be used to add to the leg pain in the final climb.

The summit finish at Cuitu Negru was used only once back in 2012 and it is one of the hardest in pro cycling. 19 kilometers at 7% but the final kilometers feature inconsistent gradients, and the ramps go above 20% on several occasions including up to the finish line. This climb is horrific, climbing the Puerto de Pajares but then taking on a climb to the ski station in the final kilometers.

It is difficult for the profile to even capture the brutality. The gradients go up to 24% and are above 20% on several locations. It's outright going up the mountain directly at the top of a very long climb and hard stage. Massive gaps can be created and this day could also see a few riders lose serious time.

The Weather

The wind could come slightly from the west, but this shouldn't affect the day much. A warm afternoon in the Asturias but it will rain overnight; which can make a few descents treacherous.

The Favourites

Breakaway chances - Low; whilst there were other stages where certainly there were good chances, here it's not much the case. I don't expect any team to be pushing too hard all day long to control a breakaway but there are several teams with interesting of pushing from far out, create the fatigue to then try and make the difference in the final climb.

But mainly it's because on the final climb there will be big differences and it's a very long effort. Only a top climber on top form can win on such a day, and the start isn't exactly too difficult. In other stages there may be high risks from far, here not so likely. Riders such as Pavel Sivakov, Guillaume Martin or Eddie Dunbar can try for sure; but if you have a great day you can also move up the GC quite a lot which makes it less favourable for high risks. Some quality climber have also put in big efforts this week and I don't expect them to be at their best right now. I will put on the table the likes of Michael Woods, Jay Vine, Matthew Riccitello, Mattia Cattaneo and Max Poole as possibilities. Cian Uijtdebroeks too, why not?

This is a day to watch the GC riders. I don't necessarily expect the main favourites to go all-out like Alberto Contador early in the climb as in 2012; because they will also have learnt. I wouldn't be surprised to see most wait for the final 3 kilometers, I think BORA will want to control the climb and with the amount of depth they've got, they can set a high pace whilst keeping riders with Primoz Roglic until the start of those gradients. There will be a few flat sections where they will want to rest a bit before the final ramps where one can really explode completely.

Roglic may not love if the climb is attacked early; but if the decisions are left for the steep pitches he will like it, and can perhaps make the difference again to his rivals - besides jumping into the red jersey. I think Ben O'Connor's stint in the red jersey ends in this stage; he may not crack but he will lose time and the team will not tell Felix Gall to wait unless he is on a super day such as Granada. I foresee Roglic jumping into the red jersey.

Enric Mas will have a confidence hit after Puerto de Ancares, but let's be real he continues to be a tremendous climber. But I don't think he will take such risks again with putting his team to work, he will follow Roglic and then try to make the difference in the end if possible. Richard Carapaz also does not have a team to put pressure on the rest. Quick-Step does and Mikel Landa will like the long effort; with Cattaneo they may try to push the pace early on and attack as that would favour him, he likes the longer efforts.

Carlos Rodríguez is to consider for a top result; Mattias Skjelmose and David Gaudu have been looking in absolute peak form and although they are not pure climbers they can do quite well here honestly. Felix Gall will like the climb and Florian Lipowitz should be in Roglic support but in the front. Sepp Kuss and Adam Yates on paper would love this climb but they need better form in order to keep up with the best.

Prediction 2024 Vuelta a España 2024 stage 15:

*** Primoz Roglic, Mikel Landa
** Michael Woods, Enric Mas, Carlos Rodríguez
* Mattia Cattaneo, Max Poole, Jay Vine, Mattias Skjelmose, David Gaudu, Feli Gall, Richard Carapaz, Sepp Kuss

Pick: Primoz Roglic