PREVIEW | Vuelta a Espana 2024 stage 11 - Can Primoz Roglic explode the race in 19% climb?

Stage 11 of the Vuelta a España will be a treacherous day in Galicia. The stage will be packed with short and steep climbs and the final one will almost reach 20%. Ben O'Connor will certainly be attacked, but will he be distanced on the final day before a set of mountain days?

Stage 11 is another hilly day in the region, starting and finishing in the city of Padrón. A day that features a very steep climb close to the finish where the GC contenders will be tested on more explosive terrain. 167 kilometers and 2800 meters of climbing. A hilly day but this time around with smaller ascents, that features steeper gradients.

Two small hilltops early in the day before the four categorized climbs that are evenly spread throughout the day. 10.2 kilometers at 4.2%, then a double ascent of the Puerto Aguasantas which is 5.6 kilometers long at 6% - and feature tougher gradients. They come with 85 and 43 kilometers to go. The riders tackle another hilltop right after the intermediate sprint, but the final climb still provides an opportunity for big differences.

Puerto Cruxeiras is 2.8 kilometers long at over 9%, The climb summits with 8 kilometers to go and it features ramps above 10%, right up to the summit. The stage should be decided on this climb if it is in the breakaway... In the GC fight attacks may certainly come in an explosive challenge. The riders go downhill almost all the way to the finish line so it's almost impossible to close gaps.

The Weather

Growing wind from the north and it will be felt throughout the stage. However it shouldn't be key on the final climb where it may come as a headwind but the gradients are very high and also it will not be an exposed ascent. Lower temperatures than the first week and cloudy skies.

The Favourites

GC Fight - Likely the most interesting aspect of the day. Such a steep climb so close to the finish is a recipe for attacking. A few strong riders may try to get in the breakaway to try and replicate what happened twice in the first week, but it is not certain. In any case Ben O'Connor will likely be attacked, likely Primoz Roglic will try to do so as BORA have a strong team to position and set him up for an attack and this kind of ascent is where he can make the difference.

I do foresee the Slovenian to attack, perhaps Richard Carapaz would be the other rider trying to do it. Enric Mas does not have the explosivity but definitely does also have the legs to go deep and perhaps get a gap. Mikel Landa, and I would not discard Adam Yates can certainly be in the same position. Florian Lipowitz and Felix Gall will be close but in secondary roles; Carlos Rodríguez, David Gaudu, Pavel Sivakov, Mattias Skjelmose, Lennert van Eetvelt and Sepp Kuss should also be present. Sivakov may be a threat with an attack whilst van Eetvelt packs a very strong sprint and could benefit from that situation.

For a breakaway it is not too different from today, a day for climbers but some puncheurs/rouleurs can also be there and fight for the win - and be most threatening with tactical attacks. Aleksandr Vlasov, Lorenzo Fortunato, Guillaume Martin, Jack Haig, Harold Tejada, Eddie Dunbar, Michael Woods and Rémy Rochas are all riders sitting there around the Top20 that once the riders go into the Asturias will fall out of GC contention, most of them. They may still play a role if they gain some time and perhaps enter in the Top10, I do believe that if there are many attacks early on they should try and get in some moves.

In the meantime other favourites for a stage win from a break will including Stefan Küng, Patrick Konrad, Attila Valter, Matthew Riccitello, Mauri Vansevenant, Jhonatan Narváez, Mathias Vacek, Marco Frigo, Wout van Aert (although I doubt he'll go for it again), Brandon McNulty, Victor Campenaerts and Oier Lazkano.

The stage, if it goes to the breakaway, can be decided on that final climb but I give equal chances for the possibility of it being decided by a small group of riders that attack before that ascent. Put into very simple terms we saw how effective that tactic can be today with Wout van Aert (who attacked 1 kilometer before the start of the climb). The rouleurs, riders like Vacek or Campenaerts for example can very much thrive with this tactic as they can then climb well enough to hold off the strongest climbers.

Prediction 2024 Vuelta a España 2024 stage 11:

*** Primoz Roglic, Jhonatan Narváez
** Richard Carapaz, Enric Mas, Lennert van Eetvelt, Oier Lazkano
* Ben O'Connor, Mikel Landa, Adam Yates, Pavel Sivakov, Aleksandr Vlasov, Michael Woods, Rémy Rochas, Stefan Küng, Patrick Kornad, Mauri Vansevenant, Mathias Vacek, Victor Campenaerts

Pick: Primoz Roglic