PREVIEW | UAE Tour 2025 stage 3 - Can Tadej Pogacar take first 2025 win at Jebel Jais?

From February 17th to 23rd, the UAE Tour 2025 will take place. It is the second World Tour stage-race of the year and will feature plenty of stars in the field of the sprinters and also climbers - headlined by Tadej Pogacar. We preview stage 3.

The first of the two mountain stages of the UAE Tour. The stage is divided into two distinct parts. The first one approaches the final mountain through the desert, while the last one is characterized by approximately 20 km of continuous ascent to the finish. Starting from Ras Al Khalma, only the wind can make it a non-slow start to the day.

The Jebel Jais. A climb that has begun being used quite often in the last editions of the race, earning it's spot as the second summit finish after the UAE Tour cemented Jebel Hafeet as it's main attraction. This climb is a totally different beast however, as the gradients are constant and never overly high. The gradients start off quite gently, but in total the climb has over 21 kilometers in distance, averaging 5.4%.

And amazingly the gradients remain almost completely constant the whole way up the mountain. It reaches up to 7% towards the finale, but it's an ascent where the average speeds stay close to 30 kilometers per hour. Drafting is crucial, and attacking from far highly unlikely to succeed. Although it's a twisty road all of the hairpins are very long and doesn't actually allow for sudden accelerations to surprise. The final minutes of the ascent can make differences however as it's a decently long effort, and there will be important signs given between the riders who are fighting for the overall classification.

The wind always blows around this area and it always plays a role on the climb. It will come from the west, so somewhat covered by the mountains, but with the amount of switchbacks the climb has, some sections will have a clear tailwind and others a clear headwind. Not good for attacks, however it won't affect the racing much.

Tadej Pogacar - Let's not kid ourselves, this is Pogacar's stage to lose and he likely won't. I think crashes and echelons will not happen before the climb, and the competition here just doesn't have the level to match him. However this isn't a climb for him to attack from far, it is not steep and can get tactical if many riders attack like Rubio did last year. Likely, he will be counting on a strong UAE to control until 2/3 kilometers to go. From there on he just have to counter-attack the moves or attack himself. Even with some strong rivals, in a sprint he will also be the man to beat.

Joshua Tarling - I don't expect Tarling to keep the race lead or fight for the stage win, but do not count him out to be in contention for a Top10. Last year the Briton showed great evolution climbing, this ascent is perfect for his abilities... INEOS won't put him as a priority but they won't have to push the pace either it's not their responsibility in the final climb. If he can hang on, he will still end the day high on GC.

Fight for the podium - I think there are four riders who, if Pogacar weren't here, could fight for the win in a final sprint. It's a climb that suits that, as at these speeds there is a major benefit to slipstreaming and not many want to risk. Lennert van Eetvelt is extremely explosive and could even have Pogacar break a sweat if it comes down to that... Giulio Ciccone, Oscar Onley and Pello Bilbao are all great climbers, with no indicators of poor form, and will all be eyeing bonifications and to take time on each other - and some of the other pure climbers, such as Carlos Rodríguez and Felix Gall who may not be so easy on a climb like this.

Movistar worked to perfection last year to take Einer Rubio to the win, I don't expect the same to happen this time around, but with he and a very aggressive Pablo Castrillo and Iván Romeo all present, the Spanish team may want to try it again. Likely Rubio would be the one, as the other two put in a fabulous time-trial and can legitimately climb onto the podium if they hang on to the GC group.

Rainer Kepplinger, Paul Seixas, Esteban Chaves, Finn Fisher-Black, William Lecerf Junior, Bart Lemmen, Michael Storer, Harold Tejada, Sergio Higuita and the Israel trio of Alexey Lutsenko, Jan Hirt and Matthew Riccitello are all riders who are expected to be up there and in contention, but they will likely just follow the wheels and see where they sit in this field.

*** Tadej Pogacar
** Lennert van Eetvelt, Giulio Ciccone, Oscar Onley, Pello Bilbao
* Felix Gall, Carlos Rodríguez, Alexey Lutsenko, Einer Rubio, Iván Romeo, Pablo Castrillo, Finn Fisher-Black, Michael Storer, Bart Lemmen

Pick: Tadej Pogacar

How: Likely he won't try to risk a sprint, perhaps an attack with around 1 kilometer to go after UAE control the climb until that point.