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PREVIEW | Tour de France 2024 stage 8 - Echelons, breakaway day or fourth bunch sprint?
CyclingSaturday, 06 July 2024 at 12:26
The overall classification contenders had a key day today at the Tour de France's sole time-trial but they won't be able to relax on a stage that was seemingly for the sprinters. We preview stage 8 of the Tour, a day where the many small climbs can see a breakaway succeed but the strong crosswinds can cause chaos once again.
Stage 8 is an interesting one, most likely for the sprinters, but throughout the 176 kilometers there will be plenty small ascents. A rough day to control and a difficult one for the pure sprinters; it also provides a good opportunity for breakaways and late attacks.
Stage 8: Semur-en-Auxois - Colombey-les-Deux-Eglises, 176 kilometers
2300 meters of climbing, it really is an unusual day. Some sprinters will definitely be annoyed as right from the gun there'll be climbing. Three categorized climbs within the first hour of racing, two more halfway through the stage, but a few more equally difficult little climbs throughout the day.
With 14 kilometers to go ends a 1.7-kilometer long climb at 5%. With 6 kilometers to go there is a smaller ascent with similar gradient. Attacks may happen, but I think overall these will serve to suffocate a few sprinters. The pure sprinters should still be in contention, but the final kilometer is also not favourable to them.
It's absolutely not technical, with no corners or street furniture anywhere in the final kilometers. The riders will soar through fields into Colombey-les-Deux-Eglises and the final meters will have a gradient of 4% for the sprint.
The Weather
Map Tour de France 2024 stage 8
Moderately strong western wind, as was the case on stage 6. And again, like stage 6, most of the stage heads straight north which means crosswinds will be frequent and echelons are possible. The start has a tailwind, most of the stage in crosswinds until 23 kilometers to go where it turns into a headwind. If a bunch sprint is to happen, the final kilometers are in an exposed cross-headwind straight.
The Favourites
First and foremost we must pay attention to the GC riders. It's unlikely that there will be major efforts for a breakaway right from the start as that's been the trend in this race, and we know that the GC teams will swarm the front of the peloton throughout most of the day, accelerating into every little town and hill. Realistically this is a day where a breakaway could thrive, but in the first week not many riders will be desperate to make a move.
Win from the front would require some of the best rouleurs to be present there. Those in the main GC teams won't. But I'm talking about names such as Ben Healy, Matej Mohoric, Jasper Stuyven, Bruno Armirail, Jonas Abrahamsen, Stefan Küng, Alberto Bettiol, Victor Campenaerts and Oier Lazkano.
A sprint at the end of the day remains the most likely choice. The likes of Mark Cavendish and Fabio Jakobsen I would say are not too likely to make it to the end of the day if the pace is indeed hard. This won't be a pure sprint stage, but there are a lot of fast men who can climb well and survive this type of terrain. Dylan Groenewegen, Phil Bauhaus, Fernando Gaviria and Arnaud Démare will also want a conservative day so as to have their best chances to succeed.
On the opposite, riders such as Arnaud De Lie, Wout van Aert, Mads Pedersen, Bryan Coquard, Marijn van den Berg could really use a difficult day to burn off the explosiveness of their fellow sprinters.
In the middle we have riders such as Jasper Philipsen, Biniam Girmay, Alexander Kristoff and Sam Bennett who I wouldn't either say a hard day benefits of harms them.
Prediction Tour de France 2024 stage 8:
*** Jasper Philipsen, Arnaud De Lie
** Dylan Groenewegen, Biniam Girmay, Mads Pedersen
* Jonas Abrahamsen, Alberto Bettiol, Mark Cavendish, Phil Bauhaus, Fernando Gaviria, Bryan Coquard, Wout van Aert, Alexander Kristoff, Sam Bennett
Pick: Arnaud De Lie
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