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PREVIEW | Tour de France 2024 stage 5 - Second sprint battle featuring Jasper Philipsen, Mark Cavendish, Biniam Girmay and more!
CyclingWednesday, 03 July 2024 at 10:58
We preview stage 5 of the Tour de France; a day where the sprinters will return to the spotlight. It will be a day where the overall classification contenders can recover a bit from what was a tough day on the bike, and the likes of Jasper Philipsen, Mark Cavendish and Biniam Girmay will instead be the main names to mention.
On the fifth day the race starts in the Alps, on the hub city of Saint-Jean-de-Maurienne, but it will be a day for the sprinters as the riders head out of the mountains. We will certainly have a bunch sprint in the industrial area of Saint Vulbas.
Stage 5: Saint-Jean-de-Maurienne - Saint Vulbas, 177 kilometers
13 kilometers at almost 3% ending with 95 kilometers to go and 3 kilometers at 5% with 35 kilometers to go are the two climbs to take into consideration on the day. It's not impossible for some team to try and push the pace in the latter, it's close enough to the finish to drop a few sprinters, but this is unlikely.
The likely scenario is a regular bunch sprint. The riders go all the way into Saint Vulbas but never go into the town center. Instead they ride away from it a few kilometers. Two slight turns with 2.8 and 2.3 kilometers to go will thin down the peloton a bit. A normal bunch sprint finish, although you could argue there is a slight right-hand bend with only 200 meters to go - UCI, where are you?
The Weather
Map Tour de France 2024 stage 5
Fully in French territory now, the riders leave the Alps and start heading north into l'Ain. There will be a slight northwestern breeze that will come as a headwind throughout the day, making it harder for the chances of any breakaway. Small chances of rain may make the day more nervous that what it would usually be. The final sprint is in a rather exposed area and for sure there are chances that there will be a headwind in the finishing straight, favouring riders that come from behind.
The Favourites
Jasper Philipsen - The big man to beat on the opening sprint but he was nowhere to be seen, because of a crash. Of course, I cannot predict crashes so we have to assume this time around the Alpecin leadout won't be disrupted. It's a standard non-technical finale, the train and Mathieu van der Poel should be able to have a good position. The headwind sprint is good for him, but timing is crucial and this opens things up to his rivals.
Mads Pedersen - A small but very experienced leadout, Jasper Stuyven looks to always be delivering Pedersen to the right place at the right time. He prefers hillier days, not like this, but he is fighting for the points classification and is looking very consistent which may end up being the perfect combination to come here and take the stage win.
Biniam Girmay - The surprise winner of the first sprint. A man whose team wasn't even leading him out but he found himself in the right place at the right time. How much Intermarché will support him now is an interesting question but I would say definitely a bit more. Fighting for the green jersey too, he will definitely want to be in the front and try to go for a second one.
Dylan Groenewegen - The fastest men in the last sprint according to his words, but I wouldn't doubt him. I do think Groenewegen has the pure speed and specially for such a stage, but positioning is indeed crucial. He wasn't bad but was blocked; but Jayco have too strong of a leadout not to have anyone with him in the final meters... If they fix it, the outcome may be different.
Mark Cavendish - Project 35 is still alive... The chances are small though, if we believe leadouts won't be crucial. If this is the case the Manxman will struggle bad. If tit does then Astana certainly have the men to deliver him and honestly such a finale I would say is very well suited to his abilities.
This is a pure stage fit for the pure sprinters and traditional leadouts. But as we've seen on the opening sprint that may not matter, at all even. The podium on that sprint was fully unexpected and we can see that the speed of riders such as Fernando Gaviria and Arnaud De Lie may be enough even if they lack a top leadout to put them in position. The truth is this may be the case with several other riders.
Phil Bauhaus, Wout van Aert and Sam Bennett for example all do not really have a meaningful leadout - mostly composed of rouleurs in reality - but it can do the job. Whilst others such as Alexander Kristoff, Arnaud Démare, Fabio Jakobsen and Gerben Thijssen do have the leadout men but can't rely on them fully. Add to the mix Bryan Coquard, Pascal Ackermann and Marijn van den Berg and we'll have another exciting sprint to contest.
Prediction Tour de France 2024 stage 5:
*** Jasper Philipsen, Mads Pedersen
** Dylan Groenewegen, Biniam Girmay
* Arnaud De Lie, Phil Bauhaus, Bryan Coquard, Wout van Aert, Sam Bennett, Fernando Gaviria, Alexander Kristoff, Arnaud Démare, Mark Cavendish, Fabio Jakobsen, Gerben Thijssen
Pick: Jasper Philipsen
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