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PREVIEW | Tour de France 2024 stage 19 - Jonas Vingegaard's final real opportunity to dethrone Tadej Pogacar on highest-ever Tour de France climb
CyclingFriday, 19 July 2024 at 09:59
The Tour de France is in the Alps and tackles the another brutal day which we preview. Stage 19 of the race is not too long but is perhaps the hardest of the entire race, as the peloton tackles long ascents and extremely high altitude in the Cime de la Bonnette; perhaps the final climb where Jonas Vingegaard has any chance of snatching the Tour de France win from Tadej Pogacar.
Another brutal day. This is, in my opinion alongside stage 15, the other day that could be termed the queen stage. It's very different however with only 145 kilometers on the menu and a start that is relatively flat. But it presents, deep into the race, challenges that will not suit every rider and may in fact see a few GC contenders completely explode.
Stage 19: Embrun - Isola 2000, 145 kilometers
The first 20 kilometers of the day should be fast but the climbers looking to win from a breakaway will likely wait for the Col de Vars to make their move. The climb is 19 kilometers long at 5.6%, but this includes small downhill. The first 8 kilometers of the climb average around 7% and it's hard enough to make differences. It's still a long effort however and the mountain goes all the way up to 2105 meters of altitude. Altitude is a key word on this day.
Col de Vars: 18.9Km; 5.6%; 102.5Km to go
Because the Tour will tackle its highest climb of the year. The Cime de la Bonnette is the highest-altitude climb ever used in the Tour de France and it is the highest paved road in Europe that doesn't have a dead end (meaning it can be climbed from two different sides. It is also the third highest paved road in Europe only behind the Pico Veleta and the Tiefenbachferner.
This is a good introduction to just how high the riders will go. It's the fifth time the climb is in the race, the last of which was in 2008, but it was part of the Giro d'Italia in 2016 (where the riders raced in the same direction as this day, with Isola 2000 also in the route). But the climb is not just about the altitude, it's details are just brutal as well. It's 23.1 kilometers long at 6.8%, a climb that will take around an hour even for the best climbers in the world.
The ascent ends with 57.5 kilometers to go but have no doubt that at this point in the Tour, and with just how hard of a climb it is, some GC riders may go all-out - specially those who love the altitude and long ascents. The fact that the descent starts at 2798 meters of altitude and is technical will make it a tense challenge as well, on a road that is fully exposed to the weather.
Cime de la Bonnette: 23.1Km; 6.8%; 57.5Km to go
In 40 kilometers the riders lose 2000 meters of elevation until they face the final climb. The Col de la Lombarde as many know it, but the riders have the finish line before the summit at the Isola 2000 ski station - where riders such as Tadej Pogacar and Remco Evenepoel prepared for the Tour de France in a training camp.
At the end of a brutal day and race this climb can see bigger differences than what it would usually get. It's overshadowed by a different mountain on the day, but the climb is still over 16 kilometers long at 7% with it's summit at 2022 meters of altitude. It's a proper final climb to a proper day in the mountains and the differences at the finish can be massive.
Isola 2000: 16.1Km; 7.1%
The Weather
Map Tour de France 2024 stage 19
I have good news for those who like to see fast racing and records being beaten. There will be a breeze from the west, which becomes stronger at high altitudes. This will see a cross-tailwind for most of the Col de Vars and Cime de la Bonette whilst we should have mostly a tailwind up the whole final climb to Isola 2000.
The Favourites
Tadej Pogacar - Follow wheels and that's it. Pogacar has done what he needed in this race. Heat, altitude, long days in the mountains and long climbs no longer seem to be a big problem for him, the Slovenian has virtually become unbeatable uphill and we could expect another stage win from him. It will still be a brutal day and he will have the memory of previous years however, so he should stick to the wheel of Jonas Vingegaard no matter what until the final climb. No taking risks, no crazy attacks, race with the head. If he does, in regular circumstances, he will win his fourth stage.
Jonas Vingegaard - 3:11 minutes is the gap back to the Slovenian. Let's be real, this is not something that can be pulled back with a regular attack. On the final two days the climbs suit Pogacar much better and I really don't think Vingegaard will stand a chance. Here, it's not impossible. Unlikely, as the yellow jersey looks to have solved his past difficulties including altitude and long ascents... But not impossible. Vingegaard also showed his best level on the Plateau de Beille and this terrain is where he thrives. Visma will likely push very hard on Vars and then again on Bonnette and here he will attack and go for it. The only chance he has of winning the Tour is for Pogacar to explode, and this can only happen if Vingegaard goes all in from early and isn't afraid to lose time or his second place either.
Remco Evenepoel - Great friends with Pogacar, but realistically speaking even at his best level the Belgian won't really be able to dream of dropping him or being 'giften' a win. He is third and has been riding at his best ever level. If nothing crazy happens he will be on the podium which is a big success already. I think his priority will be to ensure that he maintains this position.
GC Fight - The rest of the riders will most likely sit and watch, and do their race after the 'big three' go up the road, often away from the screens. Although I don't expect too much action on the screen, there are definitely exciting battles to take into consideration here, and this is a stage where big differences can be created.
João Almeida is fourth and has Mikel Landa 27 seconds behind and Carlos Rodríguez 33 behind. Almeida may be on Pogacar protection and has stated he knows the team's goal, he will not be protected like his rivals. In Plateau de Beille Mikel Landa put in a monster climber and this terrain is where he does best... Carlos Rodríguez is also in the fight and is well suited to these climbs, but he has not managed to take the step necessary to really take time on his rivals lately.
Giulio Ciccone is eighth and has Derek Gee 24 seconds behind, Santiago Buitrago 44 seconds behind and Felix Gall 1:13 minutes behind. Because the gaps are so big, and three of these four riders should be in the Top10, I don't expect anyone to take big risks, but instead race normal and hope for the others to have a less good day. I do worry about Gee's ability to race the three weeks and tackle terrain like this with the others, but he has been on an incredible run of form. On paper Buitrago and Gall are better suited to this terrain than the other two, which will make for an exciting battle.
Can the breakaway win it - It will be difficult. Regardless if they succeed or not, I believe Visma simply has no alternative but to give it a good go and try to burn off Pogacar once again, which means a high pace throughout the Col de Vars and Bonnette. Probably Vingegaard will attack in Bonnette and this can truly damage the breakaway's chances of fighting for a win, as has happened multiple times over the past weeks. But it is the final week, fatigue sets in (some) and a few stellar climbers have full freedom to chase the stage win.
Stage 17 was the perfect example and three very strong climbers have finished in the first three positions, they should all try to do the same here. Richard Carapaz, who is on terrific form and should be able to deal well with the altitude (although he completely cracked on the Col du Galibier earlier in the race), Simon Yates who doesn't have a single climber to support him in the team but is also in rising form and can very well still get his win; and finally Enric Mas who is a pure mountain goat, like Yates also in rising form after a hard start to the Tour where his GC aspirations faded...
A few other climbers should try to get themselves in the breakaway and could do very well. Jai Hindley, the third Grand Tour winner on this list for example, has been growing and perhaps has the best suited stage to his abilities here... INEOS have Laurens de Plus, and perhaps Egan Bernal as well if he has recovered from the illnesses he had, since the high-altitude climbs should also suit him very well. Oscar Onley, Guillaume Martin, Tobias Johannessen, Louis Meintjes and David Gaudu are also riders to consider for a good result if they have the perfect day. But a stage like this can only be own by a brilliant climber, regardless of how it is raced.
Prediction Tour de France 2024 stage 19:
*** Tadej Pogacar
** Jonas Vingegaard, Remco Evenepoel, Simon Yates
* Richard Carapaz, Enric Mas, Jai Hindley, Tobias Johannessen, João Almeida, Mikel Landa, Carlos Rodríguez, Santiago Buitrago, Felix Gall
Pick: Tadej Pogacar
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- Exactly who, Joey, is "they"? Flimsy, illogical conspiracy theories aside, it is in no one's interest (financial or otherwise) to "drive away small local events." Major cultural and macroeconomic factors are reducing ridership, but there is no "they" in this context.verve82520-12-2024
- And our virtual platforms allow us to "ride" famous place that we can't get to in person, which is a pretty fabulous aspect of this weird weird sport.RidesHills19-12-2024
- Which off-season are you referring to? The one after he won the Tour of California? The one after he won 3 stages and was on the podium of the Vuelta? The one after TJV screwed up, never put him away, and lost the Tour on the time trial? We've seen the guy hit the wall, lose energy, nearly fail, and lose races ("I'm dead") more than once. He's got a visible threshold and his fueling regimen is a clear weak spot. You'll need more detail to make this more than under defined insinuations .RidesHills19-12-2024
- Interesting analysis. And yet, I'm in the US, and at a recent wedding reception as a group of us older folks had to stand at a certain place to keep track of a thing, we got to talking, and every single one of us had a favorite rider, a favorite circuit of races, a moment when we fell in love with the sport, and a joy in the complexities of it all. None of us knew about the other's fandom until that moment. It's wonderful that these are my brothers-in-law, and we now know to talk about this when the spouses aren't listening. Point being: there are fans all over, and for US folks, the loss of GCN+ has been huge. As so often, it's the media bottleneck that matters more than anything else. Look at F1 in the US before Netflix, as an example.RidesHills19-12-2024
- On the one hand, what he says is trivial. Of course it's genetics. It always is, in any sport. That's just obvious. Look at Mondo Duplantis, whose sprinting speed is key to his pole vaulting, for example - he's just plain faster than other vaulters and good at the rest of the event as well. In cycling, even when you take the most genetically weird group of people and give them amazing training, some will be better than others, as well. Distributions are distributions and there are outliers and that's just that. Pogacar's body is built for this kind of thing, it seems, with him only recently having had to pick up skills that others have used all along. I'm still inclined to believe that these folks are using entirely legal means to arrive at their shockingly good performance, given how more senior riders kinda complain about (or at least comment on) the regimens and control over the nutrition and exercise and all that. And in every population, there are edge cases of truly exceptional behavior.RidesHills19-12-2024
- And it’s likely going to get worse. They are going all-out to drive away small local events which are where a lot of new riders come from. They want fee income and Olympic medals. That’s all.JoeyB19-12-2024
- Oh Lordspock12319-12-2024
- Interesting suggestion, fo you think testing Tadej’s (or Bolts’ or so many others’) parents would have given us a preview of his potential then or what criteria do you have to pick parents with?Mistermaumau19-12-2024
- Even amateur teams suffer this sort. But this is also largely due to the precarious sponsorship, in very few sports do you find kit with so many sponsors having to be integrated and changing so regularly.Mistermaumau19-12-2024
- I think it’s pretty obvious what was responsible for destroying interest that used to be there.Mistermaumau19-12-2024