PREVIEW | Paris-Nice 2025 stage 7 - Will Matteo Jorgenson secure yellow jersey on shortened stage?
Cycling
Paris-Nice is one of the most reputable and toughest stage-races in the World Tour calendar and every single year it hosts many of the world's best climbers, sprinters and classics riders. This year the race takes place from the 9th to 16th of March. We preview stage 7.
Stage 7 is the day where the race heads into the Alps. It is a short day on the bike, with only 109 kilometers on the menu, and neither of the climbs will be steep so it won't be brutal on anyone. Early in the day there are two small ascents where the breakaway is expected to be formed, before the real action really kicks in.
The stage, because of the weather conditions, saw the Col de la Colmiane and the previous small ascent removed from the route, meaning we'll have a direct valley run up to the final climb.
Then of course, the ascent to Auron. Officially, only 7.3 kilometers at 6.9%, which is enough to make some differences - but don't overestimate them, it's not a long ascent. What can really make damage is the run-up to the climb, as the 25 kilometers leading up to it have a slight uphill gradient throughout the valley. If a team commits to pushing very hard in these kilometers, then the final climb can for sure already start with some exhausted riders.
The Weather
It will be a gruesome day. Short, with a cut up profile, but the start in Nice should be under heavy rain. Then throughout the entire stage the riders will either find rain or a lot of cold, as slowly they head into the mountains where it will get colder and colder. In Auron there is consistent forecast of snow... The stage was already cut, I wouldn't say it's likely that the stage will be cancelled but that is definitely a possibility.
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The Favourites
GC Fight - I will start out by saying what is obvious, but what can't be predicted. It will rain a lot, it will be very cold... Some riders are not going to handle this well, because it affects the body quite a lot specially when it rains like is the case. Some riders (regardless of how well they handle the conditions or not) may struggle to eat and drink throughout the day and crack in the final climb. This is the interesting little spice that bad weather brings to cycling, and above all teams and the riders individually will have to make sure they have all these details set to perfection before they think about what they can do in the final kilometers.
For the sake of a prediction, I will assume that all riders will be at their regular level. In normal conditions Matteo Jorgenson will keep his yellow jersey and I would say that this finale suits him perfectly. The long drag, the climb is neither too long or too steep... It fits the sort of heavy climber that he is, and besides the great form and motivation (the stage starts by his home), he is just incredibly consistent and Visma have been doing a spotless job for him this week. It will be hard for anyone to take him down.
Now behind him in the podium are Florian Lipowitz and Mattias Skjelmose, who should be rather content with their spot in the podium, so you won't see them take huge risks (not that there are many locations to do so on this day). Both quality climbers, they should both be in contention for the stage win but have the GC as the priority.
INEOS have raced very aggressively and have put themselves in 4th, 6th and 7th place now. Honestly, that should be about the best they can hope for, and so it's unlikely that they will send any of these riders on the offensive here, but instead try to preserve their positions and potentially make a move on the final day. Inbetween is UAE, who have lost big time now. Reaching for the podium seems very hard and now that João Almeida is out of the fight for the win, they won't sacrifice Brandon McNulty for him. If he finds his best level, Almeida can definitely win again just as he did at La Loge des Gardes.
Clément Champoussin, Harold Tejada, Ilan van Wilder, Pablo Castrillo, Michael Storer, Aurélien Paret-Peintre and Max Schachmann follow in the overall classification and all have chances of a good performance. But don't expect a stage win coming from there.
A breakaway succeeding here will be hard, not many riders will want to attack in these grizzly weather conditions but even if that happens, the stage is short and easy to control for a team that wishes to do so. Lenny Martínez is likely the rider most sensitive to the cold and rain due to his lightweight physique and so it won't be easy to repeat what he's done in previous days, but you can't count him out even in a direct battle with the GC guys. For a potential breakaway win you could consider riders such as Iván Romeo, Felix Gall, Joshua Tarling, Neilson Powless or Aleksandr Vlasov who are all out of GC contention.
Prediction Paris-Nice 2025 stage 7:
*** Matteo Jorgenson, João Almeida
** Mattias Skjelmose, Florian Lipowitz
* Thymen Arensman, Lenny Martinez, Brandon McNulty, Ilan van Wilder, Michael Storer, Ilan van Wilder, Clément Champoussin
Pick: Matteo Jorgenson
How: A battle inside the final kilometer, like La Loge des Gardes. The top climbers are very similar to each other.
Original: Rúben Silva
☀ Voici le parcours de #ParisNice 2025 !
— Paris-Nice (@ParisNice) December 17, 2024
☀Here is the route of #ParisNice 2025! pic.twitter.com/ynMCs4sVut
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- I love listening to Geraint Thomas, he is such a great sportsman.awp26-03-2025
- Liege or Amstel are a little different. Only he knows what really works for him. I'm a bit disappointed that he is not going to focus on any other races potentially until the Dauphine. If you don't have race days in the legs no matter how good you are it generally gives a negative result. I had argued that he knew what works for him the other day but he seems to have maybe a mental block or is still a bit gun shy from last year's crash, which to be honest, was pretty bad. He might be in his last season or two. I hope not because he can still do quite a bit of winning if he gets his head right.awp26-03-2025
- Do you need a tissue since I seem to have offended you with my comment?frieders326-03-2025
- You mean Liege or Amstel or Flech doesn't play to his abilities ? That's a cop out !frieders326-03-2025
- He beat a field of second rate sprinters....yawn!frieders326-03-2025
- He didn't beat any top class sprinters in this race so slow the roll!frieders326-03-2025
- I think, sometimes, women's races are more interesting because of their unpredictability due to their silly mistakes. The most recent ones seem to always involve Demi Vollering against SD Worx. 11% is way too discriminative. Is there no guardrail in EU laws that prevent this sort of discrimination?
KerisVroom26-03-2025 - Good for him but not exactly the most competitive field, though better than what Froome would try ;-) Let’s wait and see if he can keep things up over time.Mistermaumau25-03-2025
- Huh? So when the men’s is boring and the women’s isn’t should they transfer money or how do you suggest to do things. Last I heard, it’s a bunch of mostly ageing chubby men who set the criteria for women’s races (and in most sports it’s still rather like how religions are run). Don’t think the girls are particularly against doing the same races as the men. Anyway, there’s a huge unjustified gap between 11% of and a difference of 11%. Doubt this happens at the Olympics.Mistermaumau25-03-2025
- C’mon, nobody has ever spoken of Ganna in the same breath as those two until a few months ago and he showed how close a thing it can be when he’s on form, nobody can know in advance what form Remco will have, his Olympic form would cause even Tadej problems, and Wout, well, we’ll just have to wait and see but you can’t really write him off in advance.Mistermaumau25-03-2025