PREVIEW | Paris-Nice 2025 stage 1 - Tim Merlier the main favourite for a sprint but can Narvaez or Alaphilippe surprise?
Cycling
Paris-Nice is one of the most reputable and toughest stage-races in the World Tour calendar and every single year it hosts many of the world's best climbers, sprinters and classics riders. This year the race takes place from the 9th to 16th of March. We preview stage .
The race opens up with a stage for the sprinters. It will be a loop in the city of Le Perray-en-Yvelines, following the race's traditional start with a stage that should end in a bunch sprint but... There are chances of a late attack succeeding, it's not impossible.
156 kilometers on the menu, it won't be too difficult or long of a day and certainly one where all the attention will be in the end, unless weather conditions force the riders to act otherwise. There will be a small hilltop finishing with 21.5 kilometer to go, but the main one comes later.
So there is an intermediate sprint on the top of the final little climb, which is 1 kilometer long at 6.2%. With a yellow jersey and some seconds to hand out, some riders will want this and potentially also try to carry on with the attack/sprint. This comes with only 9.5 kilometers to go.
From there on a straight road, flat without descent, and we'll have a finale that should be easy to control for an organized peloton. The fight for the bunch sprint will be fast and furious into the final corner which comes with 700 meters to go. From there on, a small bend to the right, positioning will be key into the corner without a doubt.
The Weather
Some wind from the southeast, warm but cloudy weather. It's not unusual for the wind to make the difference early in this race, I wouldn't say it'll be strong enough for echelons but it will be strong enough for there to be attention and tension. This will however aid a bunch sprint, as we'll have a headwind in the final climb and run-up to the line (although not in the final meters of the stage).
The Favourites
Tim Merlier - Merlier is a rider who usually thrives on the opening stage of races and he is the big favourite here. Without Milan, Philipsen and Kooij present, he's got an open road where he should be the most powerful. He will not have the strongest leadout, but that hasn't stopped him in the past few weeks.
Mads Pedersen - Lidl-Trek have been showing great form with several of their riders and I expect Pedersen to do the same. With a good leadout, I expect to see him in good form, although he will be better suited to some hillier days.
Riders such as Danny van Poppel, Michael Matthews, Samuel Watson, Vincenzo Albanese and Anthony Turgis will be hoping for a hard race, either with the winds or in the climbs, to thin off the group and have better chances of fighting for a top result.
On the opposite end we've got Juan Sebastián Molano and Iuri Leitão who return from injury, Fabio Jakobsen, Alexander Kristoff, Alberto Dainese, Cees Bol, Stanislaw Aniolkowski...
I believe the intermediate sprint will still lead to some riders giving it a shot, even if just for the bonification seconds, but to then hold the difference to the line will be hard in these conditions. But explosive riders such as Jhonatan Narváez or Julian Alaphilippe can certainly try and take the opportunity and see if it can work out. Santiago Buitrago and Mattias Skjelmose are very explosive and could try to go snatch bonus seconds for the GC, and could well then try to maintain the gap if there is a group.
Prediction Paris-Nice 2025 stage 1:
*** Tim Merlier
** Mads Pedersen, Alberto Dainese
* Juan Sebastián Molano, Danny van Poppel, Michael Matthews, Tobias Lund Andresen, Fabio Jakobsen, Arnaud Démare, Stanislaw Aniolkowski, Iuri Leitão, Jhonatan Narváez, Alexander Kristoff
Pick: Tim Merlier
How: Regular bunch sprint.
Original: Rúben Silva
☀ Voici le parcours de #ParisNice 2025 !
— Paris-Nice (@ParisNice) December 17, 2024
☀Here is the route of #ParisNice 2025! pic.twitter.com/ynMCs4sVut
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- Good win for Ayuso. He has appeared a bit inconsistent on mountain stages in the past; absolutely brilliant on some but then cracking on others.Cooldude16-03-2025
- A little caution is understandable. Just ask Roglic.Cooldude16-03-2025
- Jorgenson needs races to improve, he won Paris Nice last year, he should have been given open rein this year. He rode his guts out for Jonas last year, Jonas just needs to build form for the Tour. Give Matteo a race without a co captain.awp16-03-2025
- Exactly. Two leaders of this caliber at the same race makes no sense.Pedalmasher16-03-2025
- Jonas attacking Matteo< who was the GC leader, on the first summit finish was ridiculous! Karma came back and bit JV in the a$$ !frieders316-03-2025
- Pidcocks Ineos Grenadier? Nice proofing lolmij16-03-2025
- Agreed. Why have these two together? Give Jorgenson his own race. They have no one in Italy for GC that’s legit and provenmij16-03-2025
- Agreed. Why have these two together? Give Jorgenson his own race. They have no one in Italy for GC that’s legit and provenmij16-03-2025
- Yes, he’s impressive at the moment but lets see how long he keeps it up first so we know this isn’t his peak whilst those he’s expected to go up against are still building up to theirs.Mistermaumau15-03-2025
- Ah, but Jorgenson is probably recovering/saving himself for 2moro and Almeida seems like he got satisfied by his win so hard to know how hard everyone was trying. As said, he’s surprised many on the slopes a number of times now.Mistermaumau15-03-2025