PREVIEW | MEN'S Zurich World Championships Road Race 2024 - Pogacar, van der Poel, Evenepoel... Who will be the new rainbow jersey?

On the 29th of September we have the final and most important event of the Zurich World Championships. The men's Road Race will be an extremely long race which favours the climbers and classics specialists, with Mathieu van der Poel as the defending champion. We preview the race.

274 kilometers in distance and 4200 meters of climbing. This is a hard race, whichever way you look at it. It is the route that suits the climbers the best since 2018's Innsbruck Worlds and will see a new wave of strong climbers have an opportunity once again to conquer the rainbow jersey, in Zurich. The race begins in Winterthur and right from the start there is climbing - including the steepest ascent of the race (1.3Km at 10%) which will be tackled with 230 kilometers to go, before entering the final circuit. 

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Winterthur - Zurich, 274.5 kilometers 

The riders then reach Zurich and begin to race on a seven-lap circuit around the Swiss city. The climbs are short and explosive; but the amount of times they will be climbed and the total distance of the race will burn off the explosivity of most riders, and the harder the race is the more it will favour the climbers. So we will have interesting dynamics, as different contenders benefit from different types of racing. By all means, this is a race that will likely take around 7 hours and is suited to the endurance specialists as well - and of course, those in peak form which is not easy to achieve this late into the year.

The circuit will be marked by two climbs. After crossing the finish line by the river, there is a rather technical section through the center and quickly a 700-meter long ramp that averages 8.4% (summit with 24 kilometers to go). It maxes out at 13%, but will likely not be attacked hard; instead the riders will look to go through in a good position, because then comes a section of 1.5 flat kilometers where following the wheels is highly beneficial.

The main climb is the one into Witikon. It is 1.9 kilometers at 6.2%, not an overly steep climb and one where speeds will be high. It starts off a little steeper than the average and then slowly comes down until the summit with 20 kilometers to go. There is a long switchback but overall not a technical climb... If someone enters this climb in the head of the race, they will not lose too much time.

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But after these climbs, in the final lap, there will still be 20 kilometers of racing. 20 rolling kilometers with a few small hilltops, fast descents... Terrain where organizing a chase is not easy and where racing should be very tactical. There is no opportunity to create a gap by power, instead opportunity and tactics will be the key factor.

From 9.7 kilometers to go we have a very fast descent in a forest area followed by urban riding. 10 seconds of advantage is enough for your rivals not to see you ahead which can play a big role mentally. If someone has a lead into this section it will likely hand out a victory, so there has to be a mini finish line for most riders up to that point.

From 6.5 to 5 kilometers to go the road is slightly uphill but nothing meaningful, before quickly descending into the lakeside with just 2.5 kilometers to go. From there it's fully flat and straightforward back into the city.

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The Weather

Map Men's Zurich World Championships Road Race 2024

Surprisingly, there is no rain in the forecast for this Sunday, but that does not mean that it's assured dry weather. Regarding the roads it certainly does not mean that, as the rain will continue to fall all the way up to Saturday and in the downhills and urban areas there will certainly continue to be a few wet or damp areas on the road.

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The Favourites

Tadej Pogacar (Slovenia) - The man everyone has been talking about. He will be heavily covered, Pogacar will have this burden on him this Sunday which is often deadly in classics, except for the ones that are very hard... I didn't consider this course in Zurich too difficult until I've seen the races over these past days, the circuit is harder than I thought. Above all that first climb is steep enough to do real damage, and if that one is attacked, the classics riders will be drained for the longer one. I truly do believe that he can make an attack uphill and create a gap for victory; usually he would do this from far to avoid being swarmed by teams with numbers, but he has to be cautious after seeing what Jan Christen did in the under-23's. But Slovenia, having Primoz Roglic (himself a very well suited rider for such race) and a generally good team to control the race, will definitely allow Pogacar to deploy the tactics he wants and not be pressured into what his rivals do with him.

Mathieu van der Poel (Netherlands) - The Netherlands have one leader. Whilst other national teams can play many cards, and the Dutch do have good riders, realistically you can't expect any to go along with the big favourites except for the defending champion. Van der Poel is in good form, he showed it in the Europeans and Luxembourg, and he prepared for a race that is seemingly more suited to the climbers. He will struggle, he may be dropped, but the reigning champion is an endurance monster and a lover of days that are packed with hundreds of sharp efforts. He can also deal with the pressure (that won't be on his shoulders this Sunday, for a change) very well and with a world title on his back, he can afford to take more risks. I think the main climb does not suit him but the steep one does and over the flat and rolling kilometers he will be able to ride as strong as anyone else - and possibly find alliances that, alongside a strong sprint, can have him win or in the medals. I do not count him out.

Remco Evenepoel (Belgium) - No Wout van Aert is a tough hit... Remco Evenepoel comes to this race but dare I say, not with the best chances of winning. Uphill he cannot drop everyone (Pogacar, at least, will always be able to follow and at least be equal in a sprint) and on the flat, well Pogacar and van der Poel will always have an eye on him and know that in no circumstance can a gap be opened. Evenepoel is not an underdog anymore and he can't win as he did in 2022 with his trademark type of attack; so Zurich will be hard. He did win the time-trial but since the Olympic Games he has not shown himself well in a road race and I do worry that he won't have his best climbing legs.

Belgium will definitely have to play with their numbers, start attacking early (with him included) and put to good use specialists in these races such as Tiesj Benoot and Tim Wellens. Maxim van Gils and Laurens de Plus, on their best day, can also be pivotal riders in the race. The Belgians know how to race like this and they really have to pull out a good tactical race to win.

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Spain - Honestly, Spain's team is incredible. But without a 'Pogacar' or 'Evenepoel', it matters little how strong they are because they just have to use tactics. At their display are eight riders and each one stands chances. I believe Pablo Castrillo, as the youngster ,will but put in domestique role, and perhaps others will too as they day goes if they feel bad. Alex Aranburu and Roger Adrià (GP de Wallonie winner) are the classics riders and come in with good form, but the team is truly focused on it's climbers. Juan Ayuso showed great form in Luxembourg; Pello Bilbao was second to Pogacar at the GP de Montréal; Enric Mas was second to Roglic at the Vuelta; Mikel Landa and Carlos Rodríguez need no introduction. The problem is neither of these climbers are explosive. But on a good day they can be in numbers at the front and infiltrate attacks, perhaps with the Belgian and French, to try and overwhelm others.

France - Another team without a spearhead but with plenty quality riders. Julian Alaphilippe is an expert on this type of race and comes in with great form, although I worry he may blow up as the race is looking more oriented to the climbers. Valentin Madouas is a very worthy endurance specialist however who can fill his spot if needed. David Gaudu is in terrific form and loves these climbs, Pavel Sivakov is another very dangerous wildcard and we've got the likes of Romain Bardet and Romain Grégoire who on their best day can also play a very important role for the team.

Great Britain - The British have Tom Pidcock who on paper could do good but I don't deposit much trust on him; and Stephen Williams who at his best can be in the fight for the win but is rather inconsistent. But I add the team as a whole to be quite dangerous because both Adam and Simon Yates come in; as climbers they will be present if the race is made for these men and honestly (although neither is explosive) both are not afraid to go on the attack, and come in with not many eyes on them which can make them dangerous for attacks where they may not be covered.

USA - The Americans as a whole also deserve a meaningful mention because they come in with a very strong team where in my opinion Matteo Jorgenson leads. The Visma rider is an extraordinary rider for the small or long climbs, he comes in with great form after Canada and throughout the season he's shown that despite his quality, he is still not marked like other top riders. This is very dangerous. Furthermore the team can benefit from an in-form Quinn Simmons, a classics specialist in Neilson Powless, Kevin Vermaerke who was hugely impressive in Glasgow last year; Magnus Sheffield and Brandon McNulty who are wildcards.

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Climbers - This is at the end of the day a climber's course which may favour riders such as Daniel Martínez, Santiago Buitrago, Giulio Ciccone or Aleksandr Vlasov who can also do these hilly races very well. Antonio Tiberi wouldn't ordinarily be on the top of my head as a big contender but after winning the Tour de Luxembourg he showed that he is also worthy of a protected spot within the Italian team. Although I wouldn't rate them as high, you can not discard the likes of Felix Gall, Felix Grossschartner, Florian Lipowitz, Eddie Dunbar, Tobias Johannessen and João Almeida.

Classics Riders - The Danes also have Mattias Skjelmose but after the Vuelta he hasn't raced much as he recently crashed out of Luxembourg. Magnus Cort Nielsen hasn't shown good form recently and although Mads Pedersen (the likely leader) has, I think it may be too much climbing for him, so the team does have an issue. We have top puncheurs who can win this race such as Marc Hirschi who will be the leader of the home team and is on incredible form over the past months, winning many races and being very well suited to these climbs whilst not being a marked man like Evenepoel or van der Poel... Toms Skujins and Diego Ulissi are also world-class on their best day, whilst Attila Valter loves the hard races and comes as a big underdog that won't be marked.

I would take Michael Woods seriously here as he is in good form, very motivated and is the kind of climber/puncheur type that can handle these climbs well, teaming up with Derek Gee. We may see the likes of Mathias Vacek, Ben Healy, Max Schachmann and Finn Fisher-Black also surprise.

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Prediction Men's Zurich World Championships Road Race 2024:

*** Tadej Pogacar, Marc Hirschi
** Remco Evenepoel, Mathieu van der Poel, Matteo Jorgenson, David Gaudu, Pello Bilbao, Primoz Roglic
* Tiesj Benoot, Maxim van Gils, Enric Mas, Julian Alaphilippe, Pavel Sivakov, Adam Yates, Santiago Buitrago, Aleksandr Vlasov, Antonio Tiberi, Toms Skujins, Diego Ulissi

Pick: Tadej Pogacar

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