Chris Horner analyzes run-up to the 2024 Tour de France of the 'Big Four': "Roglic has the most difficult program mentally"

Chris Horner still holds the title for oldest Grand Tour champion, however the now 52-year-old 2013 Vuelta winner is still present in the cycling world via his YouTube channel where he recently analyzes the programs of Jonas Vingegaard, Remco Evenepoel, Primoz Roglic and Tadej Pogacar in the run-up to the awaited Tour de France.

According to the American, one of the four will face the tougher program than others. "In the Strade Bianche he does not meet any of the three others, but in Milan-San Remo it is a different story, where he rides against Wout van Aert and Mathieu van der Poel," he says about Pogacar. "He is also the only one of the four to start Catalunya, but because he is also taking at the Giro, he has the toughest program on paper."

Nevertheless, Horner is not convinced his program is the toughest. That honor is reserved for his compatriot Roglic. "In Paris-Nice he will compete against Evenepoel and at Itzulia Basque Country and the Critérium du Dauphiné Vingegaard will be in the mix. However, those are the only three races he rides, so he competes against at least one of the three in every race. But if he cannot win a single time against Vingegaard or Evenepoel before the Tour, then he will start the Tour with little confidence. That is extremely difficult mentally, but at the same time winning immediately for a new team feels extremely good. Personally, I think he will win at least two, if not all three."

"Evenepoel has a lot of room to win races before he goes to Itzulia against Vingegaard and Roglic, especially because he will participate in the Volta ao Algarve and the classics."

"As for Vingegaard, the pressure can be taken off somewhat by big victories from Van Aert, if the Dane does not appear to perform. Moreover, he won't be riding the Gran Camino and the Tirreno-Adriatico against any of the other three, so he can also gain confidence."

In summary, Horner estimates that at least one of the big four will struggle. "Someone will fail. In terms of the physical programme, Pogacar has the most difficult time, but in terms of mentality it will be the most difficult with Roglic."