Preview. Giving continuation to the Australian summer racing, the Cadel Evans Great Ocean Road Race is one of the most recent additions to the World Tour calendar. Taking place on the 28th of January, it provides opportunities for both sprinters, puncheurs and classics riders to take an early big win.
The Australian race revolves around the city of Geelong, with deep connections to Cadel Evans. It is a mostly flat race all throughout, before entering the final circuit where the riders will race around on five occasions, and they will have two climbs within it.
The climb to Challambra Crescent is 1.3 kilometers at 7.9%. Not too hard, but enough to split the peloton, drop several riders, and on the final lap attack hard, specially as towards the summit it goes up to 15%. It's a very explosive section that ends with 9 kilometers to go where the riders will be in small groups, but have around two kilometers to reorganize.
Following that there will be a small uphill pitch where some attacks are, again, possible, of around 300 meters at 10%. However from there on the race changes quite significantly and the final 6 kilometers will be much more prone to chasing.
Along big avenues, the riders will have only two corners until they reach the finishing straight. It is as simple of a finale as it could be where a solo rider stands little chances, and having a large group can be very beneficial. This is where the balance between the early attackers and the sprinters will be interesting.
The Weather
The southern breeze will see a crosswind in the main climb of the final circuit and a tailwind in the following kilometers. It may help the attackers, although in the finale it won't exactly benefit a solo attacker with cross and headwinds.
The Favourites
Israel - Premier Tech - Israel are a team that came to Australia guns blazing and have several big contenders. Corbin Strong is a very strong puncheur with a strong sprint, ideal for a race of such conditions. However the team has the depth in this race with no doubt, featuring Tour Down Under winner Stephen Williams who can certainly be on the attack in the climbs. The team has cards they can use for attacks but also to possibly control for a sprint such as Derek Gee, George Bennett, Simon Clarke and Nick Schultz.
INEOS - Jhonatan Narváez is a premium favourite for the Australian one-day race. He has been sprinting incredibly well throughout this start to the season, and in this type of explosive climb he can attack and make the difference. An incredibly dangerous combo. INEOS have Elia Viviani as a card for the sprint. Filippo Ganna on paper could be a favourite for any scenario, but that will only happen if his form is superior to that of the past week.
Biniam Girmay - Intermarché - Wanty have a few weapons but the leader will with no doubt be Biniam Girmay. The Eritrean was the winner of the recent Surf Coast Classic and showed form throughout the Tour Down Under. In a sprint, he is as fast or more than anyone else present, and the climbs should not be too hard to distance him from the top places on the road.
Team Jayco AlULa - The Tour Down Under went anything but according to the plan, but the team have the chance here to save their Australian summer. Caleb Ewan will be at the start as a strong sprinter and that is what the team will focus on. Luke Plapp is also back to racing (this was the case at the Surf Coast Classic), an incredibly dangerous rider here at his best but we do not know it it will be the case.
The race may end in a sprint, last year's winner was a complete shock with Marius Mayrhofer. So we can't exclude another surprise win in such scenario. Max Kanter was quite consistent throughout the past few weeks and in a sprint he packs a good punch. Dan McLay could be an interesting figure, however he will struggle to follow the peloton through the climbs. Mathias Vacek, Emils Liepins and Milan Fretin could be other outsiders in such a scenario.
Late attacks also carry perhaps just as high chances, seeing that there are not too many sprinters at the start line. The climbs will certainly see attacks specially taking into consideration the presence of Old Willunga Hill winner Oscar Onley who has no other option but to attack. Laurence Pithie, Cristian Scaroni, Georg Zimmermann and Quinn Simmons can be extremely dangerous in such a situation.
Prediction Cadel Evans Great Ocean Road Race 2024:
*** Corbin Strong, Jhonatan Narváez
** Biniam Girmay, Laurence Pithie
* Elia Viviani, Caleb Ewan, Luke Plapp, Max Kanter, Oscar Onley, Quinn Simmons
Pick: Corbin Strong
Preview written by Rúben Silva.
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