ANALYSIS | Tadej Pogacar's 5 main rivals to win the Tour de France 2025

The Tour de France 2025 is almost upon us, and anticipation couldn’t be higher. With the Grand Départ in Lille just a week away, a star-studded line-up is ready to contest what promises to be one of the most competitive editions in recent memory. But while the depth of talent is undeniable, there’s one man who towers above the rest when it comes to the general classification fight: Tadej Pogacar.

The reigning world champion and defending Tour winner enters this year’s race in arguably the best form of his career. He’s swept nearly everything he’s touched in 2025, and most recently dominated the Critérium du Dauphiné, where he outclassed his two biggest rivals, Jonas Vingegaard and Remco Evenepoel. Pogacar is aiming for his fourth Tour de France title, and while he’s far from invincible, it will take something extraordinary to dethrone him.

But who, realistically, can stop him? Here are the five riders with the best chance, not just of making the podium, but of threatening Pogacar’s throne.

If there’s one rider capable of going toe-to-toe with Pogacar in the high mountains, it’s Vingegaard. The Dane beat Pogacar in 2022 and 2023, and is the only man to have ever truly cracked Pogacar (and he has done it twice). His 2024 campaign was derailed by a brutal crash at Itzulia, which left him racing against the clock just to be fit for the Tour. This year, there are no such excuses.

Team Visma | Lease a Bike have built their Tour squad around him, and it’s arguably the strongest they’ve ever assembled. Simon Yates, Matteo Jorgenson, Sepp Kuss, and Wout van Aert give Vingegaard a formidable support network. If he’s at 100%, he remains the only rider who can genuinely match Pogacar on the toughest days and apply pressure when it matters most.

Evenepoel may still be developing as a Grand Tour rider, but his threat can’t be underestimated, especially with two time trials on the Tour route. At the Dauphiné, he beat both Pogacar and Vingegaard in the race against the clock and briefly wore yellow. Over 40+ kilometres of time trialling in this year’s Tour, that could amount to a meaningful advantage.

But questions remain. Without Mikel Landa, Evenepoel will lack climbing support, and his limitations in the high mountains remain apparent. If he cracks even once, it could undo all the time he gains in the TTs. Still, his world-class power and attacking style make him the second-biggest obstacle in Pogacar’s path.

Roglic was written off after a disappointing Giro d’Italia, but that’s premature. The 35-year-old has five Grand Tour victories to his name and has unfinished business at the Tour de France, especially after his 2020 heartbreak, which is actually the last time he finished the Tour. He signed with Red Bull – BORA – hansgrohe to win this race, and this could be his last real shot.

The first 10 days will be key. If Roglic avoids crashes and navigates the chaos, he could re-emerge as a serious contender, at least for the podium. He doesn’t need to dominate; he just needs to stay close. His experience, explosive punch, and dogged mentality make him a wildcard Pogacar can’t ignore.

If the top contenders falter, Santiago Buitrago could be the one to take advantage. The Colombian has quietly built a strong season, with early success at the Volta a la Comunitat Valenciana and flashes of brilliance throughout the spring. He dropped out of the Dauphiné but remains a strong podium outsider.

He’ll have Lenny Martínez alongside him at Bahrain – Victorious, creating a dangerous two-pronged climbing threat. For Pogacar, the danger isn't that Buitrago will outclimb him, but that, in the right tactical scenario, he could sneak away on a big day and upend the GC. Realistically, Buitrago won’t win the Tour, but if two or three of the Big Four falter, he’s next in line.

Mas has long threatened to break through at the Tour but never quite delivered. His best finish remains fifth (in 2020), but 2025 could be the year he finally climbs higher. He’s looked sharp this season, finishing third at the Volta a Catalunya and second at Itzulia, where he nearly won the queen stage.

The question is whether Mas can finally shed his reputation for conservative riding. To trouble the podium, he’ll need more than consistency, he’ll need courage. With a strong Movistar team behind him, including Einer Rubio and Javier Romo, the platform is there. But the leap from top 5 contender to podium challenger is enormous. For now, Mas remains a respected threat, but not one Pogacar should lose sleep over.