ANALYSIS: How quickly can we expect Remco Evenepoel to return to his golden best?

Remco Evenepoel’s 2024 season was certainly one to remember. In fact, if hadn’t have been for Tadej Pogacar, he would probably have comfortably been the rider of the year for 2024.

On his Tour de France debut, he finished third overall and won the white jersey as the best young rider, alongside securing a stage win with a time trial. His summer of success continued in Paris, where he etched his name into the history books by becoming the first male cyclist to win both the Olympic road race and the time trial at the same Games.

He rounded off the season with yet another milestone, claiming his second world time trial title in Zurich in September. These performances cemented his reputation as one of the most exciting talents on the planet, capable of winning grand tours and one day races alike.

However, his incredible momentum was abruptly halted in December 2024 when he suffered a serious accident while training in Belgium. Evenepoel collided with the open door of a postal van in Oetingen, resulting in fractures to his rib, right shoulder blade, and right hand.

Its now been just over two months since that incident, and in the last week the Belgian has started to upload his rides to Strava. Slowly, but surely, he’s ramping up the miles again.

But how quickly can we expect to see the Evenepoel of last summer?

The injuries raised immediate concerns about his ability to return to top form for the 2025 season. The timing of the crash was particularly disruptive, occurring in the off-season when most of his rivals would either have been enjoying some well deserved rest or starting their training plans for the new year. With Evenepoel already having spent around two months off the bike, questions have arisen about whether he will be able to rebuild his fitness and compete at the same level as before in 2025.

The injuries sustained by Evenepoel will have multiple implications. Firstly, his physical recovery will have required extensive rehabilitation. Fractures, particularly in key areas like the shoulder blade, present significant challenges for a cyclist. The scapula plays a crucial role in upper body stability, bike handling, and sprinting, meaning Evenepoel may have to adapt his riding position and technique as he returns to training.

Remember, when Evenepoel returned from his crash last year, he reported stiffness in his shoulder for quite some time. The combination of shoulder, rib, and hand fractures mean he won’t have even been able to ride on the rollers, and so his cycling fitness will have dripped away.

Beyond the physical toll, the mental aspect of recovery cannot be overlooked. Evenepoel has experienced serious crashes before, most notably his horrific fall at Il Lombardia in 2020, where he suffered a pelvic fracture. He managed to return from that injury and eventually re-establish himself among the world’s best, winning the Vuelta a Espana and a world championship in 2022.

However, every major crash presents new psychological hurdles. The trauma of colliding with a vehicle while training may make Evenepoel more cautious on the road, particularly during training rides in similar environments. Although his experience returning from injuries before can be seen as a positive, the Belgian will be desperate to not have to go through this process again for a long time.

The extent to which Evenepoel can return to top form in 2025 will depend on multiple factors, including the quality of his rehabilitation, the time frame of his recovery, and his ability to rebuild race fitness before key events such as the Tour de France. Historically, cycling has seen several elite riders suffer serious injuries in the off-season or early in the year, only to make remarkable comebacks within the same season or shortly thereafter. Let’s take a look at a few examples of these to gain an understanding of how quickly we can expect to see Evenepoel back to his best.

One of the most famous examples is that of Mathieu van der Poel, who struggled with severe back problems in late 2021. The Dutch rider was forced to take an extended break, missing a significant portion of the cyclocross season and delaying his return to road racing. After months of rehabilitation, van der Poel made a sensational comeback in March 2022, finishing third at Milano-Sanremo.

He then went on to win both the Settimana Internazionale di Coppi e Bartali and Dwars door Vlaanderen before taking a dramatic victory at the Tour of Flanders in April. His ability to quickly regain top form after such a disruptive injury highlighted the importance of structured recovery and intelligent race selection. If Evenepoel follows a similar path, gradually reintroducing himself to competition before targeting a major objective, he could still achieve great success in 2025 despite his disrupted off season.

Another interesting case is that of Annemiek van Vleuten, whose career has been defined by recovering from setbacks. In August 2016, while leading the Olympic road race, van Vleuten suffered a horrifying crash that left her with three lumbar spinal fractures and a severe concussion.

It was one of the nastiest crashes to watch live, and many feared her career was in jeopardy, but she made an astonishing recovery, returning to competition within weeks. Just a month later, she won the Belgium Tour, proving that even the most devastating injuries can be overcome with the right approach. Over the years, van Vleuten continued to defy expectations, winning multiple Grand Tours and world championships after suffering injuries that would have sidelined most athletes for much longer.

Perhaps the most relevant example to Evenepoel’s situation is Fabio Jakobsen’s incredible return from a near-fatal crash. In August 2020, during the Tour de Pologne, Jakobsen was involved in a high-speed crash that resulted in severe head and facial injuries, including a fractured skull, brain trauma, and extensive damage to his jaw.

After spending days in a medically induced coma and undergoing multiple surgeries, he faced a long and uncertain road to recovery. Remarkably, by 2021, Jakobsen had not only returned to racing but had re-established himself as one of the best sprinters in the world. He won three stages at the Vuelta a Espana and secured the green jersey, making it one of the most inspiring comebacks in modern cycling history. And the comeback was complete in 2022, when Jakobsen picked up his first ever Tour de France stage win.

While Jakobsen’s injuries were even more severe than Evenepoel’s, his return demonstrated that even when pushed to the very brink, professional cyclists are cut from the different cloth and have superhuman powers of recovery.

Yes, Evenepoel can take confidence from these cases, but his comeback will depend on several key factors. One advantage he has is the level of medical care and recovery resources available to him through a team like Soudal - Quick-Step.

Modern sports medicine and recovering has advanced significantly, allowing athletes to recover from injuries faster and more effectively than in previous decades. Access to expert physiotherapists, nutritionists, and sports psychologists will all play a role in ensuring he returns to competition in the best possible condition.

Another critical aspect is how he structures his return to racing. Van der Poel, van Vleuten, and Jakobsen all eased their way back into competition before targeting major wins. Evenepoel will need to take a similar approach, carefully selecting lower-pressure races to regain his confidence and race fitness before attempting to compete at the highest level.

A rushed return could increase the risk of re-injury or prevent him from reaching his peak at key moments in the season, and that’s the last thing Remco needs if he is to close the gap to Pogacar and Vingegaard.

Mentally, Evenepoel’s history suggests he has the strength required to overcome setbacks. His 2020 Il Lombardia crash was far worse than his late 2024 incident, and he will undoubtedly take comfort in that. However, every injury is different, and he will need to manage both his physical and psychological recovery carefully to ensure he does not suffer any lingering effects. A crash-less 2025 is of the upmost importance for Evenepoel.

As fans, perhaps we need to give Evenepoel time. Too often, fans of cycling and other sports expect the stars to immediately return to their best after a lengthy lay off. Whilst they may be super human, they are still human!

Just remember, Evenepoel looked a shell of himself when returning from injury at the Dauphine last June. Three weeks later at the Tour, he was in the form of his life.

Ultimately, history has shown that great cyclists can overcome major setbacks and still achieve remarkable success. Evenepoel has already demonstrated that he belongs in this category, and if he follows the example of riders like van der Poel, van Vleuten, and Jakobsen, he has a strong chance of making a full recovery and returning to win at the highest level in 2025.