ANALYSIS: How long has it been since Biniam Girmay last tasted victory?
Cycling
After a 2024 season that etched his place in cycling history, the spotlight was always going to be brighter on Biniam Girmay in 2025. But as the spring progresses, there is a growing sense that the Eritrean star, one of the defining riders of last year’s Tour de France, has yet to hit top gear in the new campaign.
While there is certainly no cause for panic, a winless run that stretches back to July 11th, 2024, does raise some questions about his current form. Yes, that’s right, Girmay has not tasted victory since last year’s Tour.
Girmay’s triumphs last year were more than just race victories, they were of course moments of sporting and cultural significance. His win on stage 12 of the 2024 Tour de France, from Aurillac to Villeneuve-sur-Lot, was his third of that edition. With the first of those wins, he not only confirmed himself as one of the most fastest sprinters in the peloton but also made history as the first Black African rider to win a Tour de France stage.
His performances were central to Intermarché – Wanty’s strong season, and his presence at the front of the biggest races gave Eritrean cycling (and the sport’s global reach) a new level of visibility and pride.
In recent weeks all the pressure has been on Wout van Aert thanks to his lacklustre start to the season. And no, Girmay has not seen a dip in form nearly has severe as the Belgian’s, but let’s take a look at his 2025 campaign so far.
No wins yet in 2025
As of the start of April 2025, Girmay remains without a victory this season. His best result so far was a second-place finish on stage 3 of the Volta ao Algarve in Tavira. More recently, he placed seventh at Gent Wevelgem, a race he famously won in 2022. While that result shows he is still competitive in the biggest one-day classics, it also highlights that the wins aren’t coming just yet.
For a rider of his calibre, the drought is notable, particularly given how successful some of his rivals have been out of the gate this season.
Flash back to 12 months ago, and Girmay’s 2024 season began with a win at the Surf Coast Classic in January, offering an early indication of form. But it’s worth remembering that outside of that win and his Tour de France heroics, victories were relatively sparse in the first half of the year.
This isn't entirely unusual for the 24-year-old, who doesn’t always peak early. In that sense, 2025 is following a similar pattern, albeit with the caveat that, so far, he’s yet to stand on the top step of the podium.
The rivals are flying
What makes Girmay’s slow start more noticeable is the pace being set by the peloton’s other elite sprinters. Jonathan Milan, for instance, has already won six stages in 2025. The Italian, who has twice claimed the Giro d’Italia points classification, is enjoying a red-hot start to the season and will make his Tour de France debut in July.
In terms of raw speed and power, Milan certainly looks to be the strongest right now. To put things into perspective, Milan has been so strong that Lidl-Trek have removed Mads Pedersen from their squad for this year’s Tour.
Jasper Philipsen, one of Girmay’s main rivals at the Tour, has also had a strong start, although his Classics ambitions may be causing some tension in his season planning. There are questions over whether his focus on the Spring Classics could compromise his chances in the Tour’s sprint stages. Philipsen was unlucky just this past weekend to have a puncture during Gent Wevelgem, at precisely the moment Mads Pedersen launched his attack.
Meanwhile, Tim Merlier is in arguably the best form of his career, and his explosive start to 2025 has positioned him as a serious contender this summer. In fact, Merlier has been in such strong form that Soudal – Quick-Step have had to make room for him alongside Remco Evenepoel in their Tour de France squad.
In that context, Girmay’s winless run stands out more than it otherwise might. It’s not just that he hasn’t won yet, it’s that his top rivals are racking up victories and generating momentum ahead of the Tour de France.
No, grand tour season hasn’t started just yet. But we’re now just three months away from the Tour getting underway. We’ll be at the start line in the blink of an eye.
A shift in expectations
With the bar raised so high by his breakout 2024 campaign, Girmay is now being judged against a new standard. A seventh place at Gent Wevelgem is still an elite-level result, and second in Tavira is nothing to scoff at, but they’re not wins. And when you’ve won three Tour stages and helped reshape the sport’s narrative, the public and media naturally start to expect more.
Yet, it’s also important to frame Girmay’s season in context. The Classics season is still ongoing, and the biggest targets for many sprinters lie in the summer. Riders peak at different times, and Girmay has historically performed best when the pressure is highest, as evidenced by his Tour de France stage wins last July.
If Girmay can hit form in time for the Tour, all of these questions will quickly fade. His performances in 2024 showed that he thrives on the big stage, particularly when underestimated by his fans and critics. The idea that he is quietly struggling may soon be replaced by a narrative of perfect timing.
Signs of life, but no fireworks just yet
Watching Girmay’s 2025 campaign so far has been an exercise in patience. The results aren’t poor, far from it in fact, but the absence of a win keeps his name out of the headlines in a season where others are surging.
In Algarve, he showed he can still mix it with the fastest. In Wevelgem, he demonstrated strength in a chaotic, wind-ravaged race that required far more than just sprinting speed. But the killer instinct, the final punch that defined his best rides in 2024, hasn’t quite been on display yet.
It’s possible that Girmay is simply building slowly, focusing on form for the summer rather than peaking in the early months. At just 24 years old, he still has time to refine how he structures his season. And with the likes of Milan, Merlier, and Philipsen all showing their cards early, Girmay may be wise to hold back and strike when it matters most.
There is no suggestion from the rider himself or his team that anything is wrong. But it is worth acknowledging that, in the arms race of WorldTour sprinting, a slow start can quickly become a narrative, especially for someone who became one of the sport’s most talked-about riders last summer.
His next few races may offer a clearer indication of where things stand. Will he chase wins in the remaining Spring Classics? Or will his team focus squarely on guiding him towards peak form for the Tour de France?
Either way, the question of whether Girmay is quietly struggling or simply pacing himself will naturally continue to linger until he gets that first win of the year.
Given the weight of what he achieved in 2024, it’s perhaps inevitable that a winless stretch sparks scrutiny. But a closer look suggests this may just be part of the process, a deliberate, measured build-up to another summer of history.
And if that’s the case, Biniam Girmay is playing the long game, and betting that, when the big races come around, he’ll be right where he belongs.
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- Why do Ineos want him.? He cannot challenge the big four and they already have a ton of strong domestiquesabstractengineer04-04-2025
- As Wout said on Srava today "Things don't always go your way... but a flat white and peanut butter brownie can make up for a lot" Puts it in perspective!VgnRider04-04-2025
- Watch out Urska, I think he’s taken a liking to MVDP ;-)Mistermaumau04-04-2025
- Totally!Mistermaumau04-04-2025
- It will be interesting to see how he goes on the cobbles, so far he's looking very strong.awp04-04-2025
- if there is an actual weakness in wout even when completely healthy, it’s that he’s in his head too often. this has been pointed out many times by much more acute observers of cycling than ME, certainly. it may be that he’s been like this since he was a little kid. we are who we are. or that he was shaped by having faced van der poel SOOO many times. mvdp has zero second thoughts. he wastes no time at all on doubt. that has, in the past, led him to do some pretty insane things and make mistakes that wout would never have committed. but it also makes him a killer. you can see wout’s split seconds of doubt and hesitation everywhere in their head to head battles. those hesitations spill over into other races at times like dwars, when doubt creeps in. i believe that currently he is still coming back from physical problems due to injuries, but even when he’s full strength the mental game is an area of potential concern, AND potential improvement.OCexile03-04-2025
- Not only the public, just about every analyst and commentator had been piling it on. Under the circumstances I’d even say he’s showing real character. Not sure likeable Tadej would manage as well during a longer rough patch.Mistermaumau03-04-2025
- Took a while but we finally have a more nuanced analysis.Mistermaumau03-04-2025
- If I remember right, it was those same hungry journalists selling us a different story less than a year ago about the bleak future of Dutch (men’s) cycling with no possible successor for MVDP ;-)Mistermaumau03-04-2025
- Good, hopefully Jonas goes also so we get a nice duelvappaxbipmv03-04-2025