Sean Kelly pinpoints decisive section of upcoming Tour of Flanders: "Pogacar is going to try and ride away on the Oude Kwaremont"
Cycling
Tour of Flanders is coming up already this Sunday and so far it seems to come down to a head-to-head clash of last two champions - Tadej Pogacar and Mathieu van der Poel. There'll be naturally many other strong riders at the start, but it's hard to imagine anyone riding these two off the wheel...
"I was holding my breath after Van der Poel's performance in Milano-Sanremo, because that's a race where you can sit and wait, so I thought he needed to make a demonstration at E3," Sean Kelly writes in his Tour of Flanders preview on Cyclingnews, "and that's exactly what he did. He was caught behind that split, but we've seen him come back from mistakes in Classics before, and that's just Mathieu - he always has the recipe to win."
Mads Pedersen made a strong statement with dominant victory at Gent Wevelgem on Sunday, can he become the wild card of Flemish monument? Kelly doesn't believe in it too much: "It's going to be Van der Poel vs Pogacar on Sunday. Pogacar is going to try and ride away on the Oude Kwaremont, which is where the race will be decided," he analyzes.
Two years ago, Pogacar made his winning move on this famed Flemish climb and in 2025 it's still the Slovenian's best shot, Kelly assumes: "The Kwaremont is where Pogacar can put the guys like Van der Poel in difficulty, which we've seen him do in the past, but will he be able to do it this time? I think it's going to be more difficult to get rid of Van der Poel if he's on a good day."
Pedersen, Wout Van Aert, or anyone else? No - Kelly simply cannot imagine anyone to stand in their way at decisive moments. "And the rest, where will they be? I think they'll have difficulty staying with those two main guys in the important moments."
Power of team
In order for Pogacar's chances to increase, he needs to put Van der Poel in red numbers as often as possible on climbs before Oude Kwaremont through the work of his teammates. But to overwhelm strong Classics team of Alpecin-Deceuninck could prove difficult.
"UAE Team Emirates - XRG will definitely try to make the race more difficult, but it's a tough one in Flanders, because it's not easy to have a lot of riders around you going into the final," Kelly points out. "UAE may have the strongest team for that in other races, ones with more climbing, but I think Alpecin-Deceuninck are the better team for Flanders."
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Other favourites
While Kelly doesn't imagine Pedersen to be in the mix for victory, he's still the third biggest favourite, Kelly admits: "He's in his best form, clearly, but it will be interesting to see how he goes on Sunday and if he can match Pogacar and Van der Poel. He is at his best, but unfortunately for him, those two are still going to be a problem." Especially uphill.
When it comes to Visma | Lease a Bike, Kelly favors Matteo Jorgenson over Wout Van Aert who "doesn't look like he's at the level that I was hoping he would be at".
Meanwhile Jorgenson already gave us glimpses of his potential last year and so far he looked pretty comfortable this spring. "He just needs to make that next step now to be able to stay with the top guys in the very final part of the races."
Ondrej ZhasilCycling Journalist
Ondřej Zhasil is a cycling journalist at CyclingUpToDate and has been part of the team since 2023. He is based in Ostrava, the third-largest city in the Czech Republic, and covers professional cycling across the main UCI competitions, including the Tour de France, the Giro d’Italia, and La Vuelta a España. A key focus of his work is startlist analysis and pre-race coverage, where he examines team selections, rider line-ups, and tactical scenarios ahead of major events.
Alongside WorldTour coverage, Ondřej has developed specific expertise in junior cycling and in racing across East Asia, including competitions in China and Japan. He also maintains a broad working knowledge of other disciplines and levels, including cyclocross, while continuing to expand his understanding of mountain bike racing.
Ondřej holds a bachelor’s degree in Mathematics and Physics, which supports his analytical, data-driven approach to performance and race analysis. In his reporting, he regularly uses ProCyclingStats for results, statistics, and historical context. He places strong emphasis on careful sourcing, editorial accuracy, and updating articles promptly when new, verified information becomes available.
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