It does go both ways; Froome did not recover, Remco recovered pretty good, Egan Bernal did not recover to top form and as the best example yet, Greg LeMond recovered from near death shotgun accident to winning the tour two years later...
It can thus be everything, from bad accidents to accidents that don't matter, even if they are exactly the same. How someone recovers is dependand on the person and their will to survive the worst
By the time of the TDF it will be 1.2 years for Tao. He should be upto top form by then. Also the build up to the TDF will tell easily about his recovery. Top 10 GC in the 1 week races would be just about recovered.
Yeah froome and bernal haven't recovered they way they like but age plays a part as well (in froome's situation). Also how about Remco?? Had a year long injury and made his way back better than ever.
I'm not sure Froome and Bernal are instructive here. Froome was in his mid-30s and at at point in his career when performance was going to decline naturally, then suffered a truly traumatic injury. Bernal is much younger, but experienced an even more traumatic injury -- as in "life threatening" -- after a whole series of corrective surgeries and other accidents had already impacted him. Both are lucky to be alive, much less riding.
Could be wrong, but it doesn't seem like Tao's situation is comparable. He is still in his prime physically and hasn't been injured as badly as Froome or Bernal, so hopefully for his sake it still possible to return to form.
If you only break bones or other less "endurance" depending injuries, not like muscle injuries or illness then you essentially do a lot of easy training (that's all that is possible) and easy training builds endurance. So you are getting fitter even during injury, and your body will also recover well then.
Things like illness will set you back a lot more, this makes you not able to train at all. Endurance takes time to train unlike strength.
To see Geoghegan Hart surmounting Vingegard and Pogacar would be quite something..and refreshing, eg Dumoulin equalled Froome in la vuelta and the same could happen here too
That would make the tour de france s lot more fun, otherwise it is one and a half man show like lst year, pogcar was with Vingegaard everywhere but in the TT Pogi got CRUSHED!