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PREVIEW | Tour de France 2024 stage 10 - Girmay, Cavendish, Philipsen and Groenewegen headline another bunch sprint
CyclingTuesday, 09 July 2024 at 15:01
The first week of the Tour de France is over. It had everything, from explosive stages in the hills, total mountain brawls, a thrilling time-trial, echelons, incredibly popular victories and finally a brutal stage on gravel roads. The race stabilizes in what is the final day of it's first half. We preview stage 10, a day for the sprinters to battle for another win.
Stage 10 is the start of the second week of the Tour. An easy start for it, the day takes place from Orléans to Saint-Amand-Montrond is completely flat and a golden opportunity for the sprinters.
Stage 10: Orléans - Saint-Amand-Montrond, 187 kilometers
What can be said about this day? Very little. An intermediate sprint early on after only 57 kilometers. A tiny ascent that finishes with 7 kilometers to go before the expected bunch sprint.
This one will be quite regular but with a special feature added. It will be a very fast sprint but in order not to have a completely straight line, organizers created a small obstacle in the final kilometer. Three slight corners, from 850 to 500 meters to go. Then full speed to the finish line.
The Weather
Map Tour de France 2024 stage 10
A hot day with a western breeze. It won't be strong, I don't think echelons will be a big fear in the peloton. Rain may also fall late in the stage, it is unusual weather, but this is not guaranteed. A slight tailwind sprint should take place.
The Favourites
Biniam Girmay - What to say of Girmay thus far? The best sprinter in the Tour and leader of the points classification. At this point, main favourite to win the green jersey! Intermarché didn't enter the Tour providing him with a leadout but a free role, but currently the leadout is for him. Chaotic sprint awaits where the team may struggle, but the Eritrean has done very well positioning himself, and he's shown to have the speed to win even in this field.
Dylan Groenewegen - Winner of the last pure sprint. I have no doubt the Jayco rider is on great form, he has great pure speed which is ideal for such a finale and he has a strong and committed leadout - now even more, as Simon Yates dropped out of GC. If he is in the right position he can be the second sprinter to win the second of the race.
Jasper Philipsen - The race has not been working for him so far. After dominating last year, his speed isn't superior this time around and the chaotic nature of the Tour is deeming leadouts almost useless in the final kilometer. This harms Alpecin's expected specialty. Philipsen has been penalized for his dangerous sprint behaviour and the green jersey is a mission that will only be realistic if he starts to bring in Girmay now. The stage win will be the priority however, he can certainly win this one as well, but the pressure is very much on.
Mark Cavendish - As I had said, I think he has no need to contest sprints anymore or even go for it. But he can, and without pressure another one may come without a problem. Such a stage, easy and without wind, not overly technical, is the kind of finale where he'd do good. I wouldn't be surprised to see number 36.
This is a finale where good leadouts are important and so we have to consider, with a very high degree of importance, the work that Uno-X has been doing for Alexander Kristoff and that to my surprise Lotto Dstny has been doing for Arnaud De Lie. Both teams have done good work so far and if they enter the final 500 meters in front it's half way to a good result.
It's a pure flat stage without obvious difficulties, so all sprinters will be present and fighting for what they believe they can achieve. This includes Phil Bauhaus, Fernando Gaviria, Fabio Jakobsen, Arnaud Démare, Pascal Ackermann, Sam Bennett, Bryan Coquard, Marijn van den Berg, Gerben Thijssen; and stage 9 winner Anthony Turgis has also been up in the fast finales and will be motivated to keep it going. I do not think Wout van Aert should aim to win this sprint and instead recover with bigger goals in mind, but I do think Visma will give him freedom to chase a result here and he will give it a shot.
Prediction Tour de France 2024 stage 10:
*** Jasper Philipsen, Dylan Groenewegen
** Mark Cavendish, Biniam Girmay
* Arnaud De Lie, Alexander Kristoff, Phil Bauhaus, Fernando Gaviria, Pascal Ackermann, Sam Bennett, Wout van Aert
Pick: Dylan Groenewegen
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