We preview stage 8 of the Criterium du Dauphiné. This is another incredibly day in the Alps which will decide the overall classification. Can Primoz Roglic win the French race before aiming for the Tour de France? Can he win a third stage on a row? We will find out.
The Criterium du Dauphiné will come to a close after eight days of racing in a stage with a lot of climbing, as has been the case over the past few days. It may not be as brutal of a profile as stage 7, but it still packs serious challenges and the overall classification will not be decided until the finish line at the Plateau des Glières.
Close to the start of the stage the riders will go up the Col de la Forclaz de Montmin. On paper it does not seem like an overly hard climb but the average gradient hides the true difficulties of it. There are 3 kilometers at 10% up to the summit finish, this is a serious mountain climb and this early in the day it can cause chaos.
A transition phase to the day will follow, with a few small ascents, an intermediate sprint and a lot of kilometers where the stage should consolidate ahead of the final decisive climbs of the day.
Le Salève is definitely the start to the finale of the stage. It summits with 50 kilometers to go, it shouldn't see major attacks but you cannot underestimate this obstacle. It's 12.5 kilometers long at 6.7%.
But the climb, in it's middle, does feature 3.1km at almost 10% such as the first climb of the day. Here attacks can come, or a team may smash the peloton to pieces. Whatever happens, fatigue of 8 difficult days will also be felt, and the climb may affect the race more than expected.
However taking into consideration the difficulty of the final climb, the big favourites should save their matches for this one. The race ends atop the Plateau des Glières, a climb that began to be used in recent years over the major French races and is quickly gaining a big reputation.
9.4 kilmeters at 7.2% coinciding with the finish line. But this climb is in reality 6 kilometers at 11%. Constant, ultra-steep, and teammates will barely be of any help when racing at such speeds. It's all about the legs, form and resistance to fatigue. The hard section of the climb finishes with just over 2 kilometers to go, and the riders follow a straightforward false-flat road all the way to the beautiful finale area.
The Weather
Rain will fall and most likely, hard. Early in the day the riders may avoid it, but late in the day there is strong rain expected in this area of the Alps. This could benefit the breakaway as the descents will not benefit the peloton, and the riders in the peloton won't be able to benefit as much from riding in the wheels. Not huge differences, but it does provide better chances for the brave riders.
The Favourites
Primoz Roglic - The race is now his to lose. He is on great form, his best I reckon, and BORA - hangrohe is the strongest team in the race. Even if Jai Hindley is not at his best level, the team overall managed today absolutely perfectly and was in full control all day long. Aleksandr Vlasov is on massive form and will not only discourage attacks, but also provide Roglic with a guarranteed wheel to follow throughout the entire stage virtually. The Russian could even counter early attacks and force other teams to be under pressure, not Roglic... But I think the team wants the Slovenian to win and will try to play it safe.
GC Fight - And if nothing weird happens, Roglic will win the Dauphiné. His lead is of over a minute now to Matteo Jorgenson and Derek Gee, both riders who are having a great race but riders who are significantly heavier than Roglic and should struggle to make the difference in such a steep climb. It's just too difficult to see this scenario play out, and both should already be happy with their current result - specially Gee.
But a few riders won't. Giulio Ciccone for example, despite brilliant climbing form, is still only ninth in the GC; whilst Santiago Buitrago who looked alive today is only 12th. These are riders with nothing to lose, they may not even wait for the final climb because they can realistically climb up the GC quite a lot after both having bad days.
Carlos Rodríguez doesn't seem to have the form yet to climb above fifth; Remco Evenepoel will race his race, I don't see him rise from sixth... Oier Lazkano is eighth and in the same situation I believe, even though today's ride was above all expectations. Laurens de Plus and Mikel Landa - 7th and 10th in the GC - are the real dangers, as they are strong in-form climbers who have teammates better positioned and should have some freedom. They can be the danger men in an early attack, or end up splitting the race with an aggressive strategy.
A few riders will not have big (or any) GC responsibilities and will have freedom to attack early in the day. It should be possible to create a strong group with such a difficult start, and with BORA having already two stage wins in the pocket and likely not wanting bonifications and stage win motivating rivals to attack him.
Marc Soler - if he recovers from today's massive effort, David Gaudu, Pavel Sivakov, Jack Haig, Harold Tejada, Dylan Teuns, Lorenzo Fortunato, Romain Grégoire and Sepp Kuss are those to keep an eye on. Most will likely try to get in the break, and feeling on the day will matter a lot.
Prediction Criterium du Dauphiné 2024 stage 8:
*** Primoz Roglic, Giulio Ciccone
** Matteo Jorgenson, Derek Gee, Santiago Buitrago
* David Gaudu, Dylan Teuns, Jack Haig, Oier Lazkano, Carlos Rodríguez, Laurens de Plus, Aleksandr Vlasov, Mikel Landa, Remco Evenepoel
Pick: Primoz Roglic
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