Johan Bruyneel questions INEOS tactics, reacts to UAE explosion and names new Maglia Rosa favourite after stage 16 chaos at the 2025 Giro d'Italia

Johan Bruyneel has been offering daily insights into the 2025 Giro d’Italia on The Move, Lance Armstrong’s WEDU podcast. Stage 16, a dramatic and defining moment in the race, saw the general classification completely upended—and Bruyneel didn’t hold back in his analysis.

The former pro rider and team manager gave his take on Egan Bernal’s aggressive long-range tactics, the impressive form of Richard Carapaz, and the surprising turn of events that has left pre-race favorites Juan Ayuso and Primoz Roglic effectively out of contention.

Bruyneel expressed serious doubts about INEOS Grenadiers' race plan—particularly Bernal’s repeated attempts to attack from long distances, which he believes are costing both the rider and the team.

“I saw some strange things again with INEOS. I wouldn’t call the tactics bizarre, but they’re questionable. They set a hard pace, then Bernal attacks way too far from the finish—and he’s paid the price for that on two occasions now. Bernal is clearly in great form, but I don’t understand why he keeps making these long-range moves, burning his team out early. It’s just not a winning formula. He’s not going to hold off the other favorites solo from that far out.”

Bruyneel speculated that Bernal may have been reacting to visible weakness from Juan Ayuso, but felt that wasn't justification for the team’s approach.

“Maybe he saw Ayuso was struggling, and that pushed him to go. But even then, neither Bernal nor INEOS should have been the ones to respond. That should’ve fallen to Carapaz or Visma with Simon Yates. It makes for great television, sure—but it’s not efficient racing.”

One of the most striking takeaways from Bruyneel's comments was how the Giro has shifted away from the expected narrative of a Roglič vs Ayuso showdown.

“Since the start of the race, the consensus has been that only Roglič or Ayuso could win. But Roglič is gone, and Ayuso has dropped out of GC contention—he’s over 13 minutes down. This is the nature of Grand Tours. Anything can happen, especially in the Giro, which is notorious for a brutal final week. But this year? This final week is something else entirely.”

Bruyneel pointed out that over-exertion in the early stages always comes at a cost in the third week—and Stage 16 provided a clear warning shot.

“The mountains and the real difficulty are all packed into the final six stages. What we saw today was just the beginning of the shake-up—it was a massacre in the GC, and there’s more coming. I always talk about cumulative fatigue. People have to remember: a Grand Tour is a three-week effort. You have to manage yourself with that in mind. Today’s stage was a perfect example of what happens when riders don’t pace themselves properly.”

Following the fireworks of Stage 16, Bruyneel now sees Richard Carapaz as the rider best placed to win the Giro.

“I don’t think Carapaz was on most people’s radar coming into the race. We hadn’t seen much from him. He arrived in good condition, not exceptional—but solid. He made a statement with a big win earlier in the Giro, and then just stayed quietly in the mix. Now he’s struck again, gained major time, and shown real intent. For me, he’s the clear favorite now. Let’s not forget—he’s already won this race and has podiums in other Grand Tours. He knows what it takes.”

While Isaac del Toro has been one of the Giro’s revelations, Stage 16 may have exposed his first major weakness.

“This was the first attack of the Giro that Del Toro couldn’t respond to, and that’s a red flag. That said, he did a brilliant job of holding his own rhythm. He lost a minute and a half to Carapaz—it’s significant, but it could’ve been a lot worse. We’ll have to see how he responds in the next few days. What’s clear is that UAE’s race strategy will need to change. I expect them to be aggressive with other riders now, trying to win stages or apply pressure elsewhere.”

As for Juan Ayuso, Bruyneel doesn’t see much hope of a comeback after a brutal day in the mountains.

“We’ll see what happens now that Ayuso is out of the GC fight. Can he recover mentally? Can he be used in breakaways? Personally, I think we’ve lost Ayuso in this race. Once you’re out of the general classification, it’s incredibly difficult to find the motivation to fight back. He came to the Giro to win—and until very recently, he truly believed he could.”