PREVIEW | Giro d'Italia 2025 stage 17 - Will anyone try to raid Del Toro and UAE in dangerous Mortirolo stage?

The Giro d'Italia has fully exploded and on stage 17 we have the Passo del Mortirolo in the middle of a route with plenty climbs of different distances and gradients that can lead to total chaos once again. We preview a stage where Isaac del Toro's pink jersey will be on the line, and it may not hold if he cracks once again.

Much had been rumoured of this stage, but an ascent of the Passo dello Stelvio will not be present. Instead Bormio hosts the finale of an interesting stage which is not as dangerous for the GC as we usually have in the city. The distances are now much shorter, a more explosive and tactical GC day...

We will have climbs of the Passo del Tonale (14.8Km; 6.2%) and the Passo del Mortirolo (but not through it's hardest side, being 12.8Km at 7.6%) that come with 86 and 48 kilometers to go. They are hard, not as hard as the previous days, but hard enough to again fully explode the GC fight. But after the summit there will still be over an hour of racing... So what follows? 

First of all a major trap which is the descent of the Mortirolo, extremely steep and technical which in itself can create serious differences. Riders from the breakaway can then make serious difference depending on what happens in the peloton, and can push forward attacks both up and downhill.

The riders climb 700 meters in altitude throughout the following kilometers. But even if nothing happens until then, the final ascent of the day to Le Motte can still be used for big attacks. It's 3 kilometers long at 8%, at the end of such a stage, uphill run-in, and third week of the race, it can be ground for more big attacks from the victory contenders.

This climb ends with just a little under 10 kilometers to go, half of the run-in to the finish is flat which could still see some action, whilst the other half is slight downhill.

Some cold and some nortwestern wind, it shouldn't be too strong or be felt too much but if this does happen, it may come as somewhat of a headwind on all three climbs. Not ideal for attacks, but with the mountainous terrain and valleys that the peloton will go through, it may not make much of an impact. There shouldn't be rain this time around.

UAE - The team will be the least confident since the start of the race. Juan Ayuso is out of the GC fight, and I am very unsure about his commitment to the team now that at best he will be in a domestique role. Brandon McNulty also showed fragility, but the point is that in such climbs domestiques matter very little, it was all about the riders' legs. Isaac del Toro had them, he showed his expected level, but unfortunately for him, that was a level that saw him lose significant time to both Richard Carapaz and Simon Yates.

UAE did not use their riders to race tactically, but instead conservatively. They have lost Ayuso and Del Toro has only around 30 seconds over both Simon Yates and Richard Carapaz now. UAE have to send riders to the breakaway on a stage like this, because the Mortirolo is still far from the finish and although both Visma and EF do not have strong teams here, they can send satelite riders to the front and then go all-out on the Mortirolo and end Del Toro's pink jersey stint. UAE have to change their chip, and immediately. This is a thrilling and very tight battle for the race win, but in reality it's not just between these three riders.

Derek Gee is now 1:31 minutes behind Del Toro, and around 1 minute behind the other two... Truth being Israel do not have a team to attack this race, but on a stage like this both a raid or alliances are possible and he seems to be building form perfectly into this race. Giulio Pellizzari, unbelievably, was the strongest climber today and arrived even in front of Carapaz, and with him now fully in GC contention, he will likely want to attack once again to try and further climb up the overall classification.

This could be a chaotic stage, because it is fully possible and likely that Del Toro will be attacked, and anything can happen then in the rolling finale - satellite riders working on the GC groups that form after the climb, or even the GC riders non-stop attacking each other as the gaps continue to be small and some of the strongest riders have a good chance of achieving greatness if they take the right risks. Damiano Caruso, Egan Bernal, Michael Storer, Antonio Tiberi and Einer Rubio are also fully in the GC battle and will want the best possible performance - whether this means racing on the defense or on the attack.

But the stage can indeed go for a breakaway. On paper it's a day well suited to it, because the climbs come far from the finish and some riders will certainly not be caught, and they can then benefit from a stalemate behind if it happens. Even if not, some riders are in tremendous form, Christian Scaroni is not even a climber and today rode at a tremendous level, so he and Lorenzo Fortunato will once again be very candidates for the stage win - now without pressure on their shoulders as well.

Pello Bilbao, Nicolas Prodhomme, Stefano Oldani, Rémy Rochas, Carlos Verona, Mathias Vacek, Mattia Cattaneo, Luke Plapp, Filippo Zana, Romain Bardet, Wout van Aert, Yannis Voisard, Florian Stork, Diego Ulissi and Wout Poels are also contenders if they get in a front group. Do not neglect men just outside the Top10 like Tom Pidcock, Davide Piganzoli or Max Poole who have little to lose and a lot to gain by trying to get in the front group and taking advantage of the GC chaos.

*** Max Poole, Florian Stork, Richard Carapaz
** Simon Yates, Isaac del Toro, Giulio Pellizzari, Derek Gee, Tom Pidcock
* Damiano Caruso, Egan Bernal, Michael Storer, Einer Rubio, Christian Scaroni, Lorenzo Fortunato, Nicolas Prodhomme, Pello Bilbao, Carlos Verona, Mathias Vacek, Filippo Zana, Florian Stork, Davide Piganzoli

Pick: Max Poole

How: Solo win from the breakaway