“Is he still the man he was” - Jan Bakelants assesses whether Team Visma | Lease a Bike can stop Pogacar at the 2025 Tour de France

In an interview with HLN, Jan Bakelants offered an in-depth look at how this year’s Tour de France could unfold, and whether Team Visma | Lease a Bike stand any real chance of preventing Tadej Pogacar from claiming a fourth yellow jersey.

“On paper, Pogacar’s and Vingegaard’s teams are evenly matched,” Bakelants begins his analysis. “You can almost line them up one by one: Wellens and Benoot are equals in supporting roles, Affini does on the flat what Politt can do, Almeida and Jorgenson are the first lieutenants, the Yates brothers can be swapped for each other… Yet I still give the advantage to Team UAE: the momentum is clearly with Pogacar and his team.”

Bakelants points to the calm confidence running through UAE Team Emirates. “They ride through the peloton with such confidence, always relying on their own strength, and everyone seems to be in excellent form. Many of their riders have also won recently.” Almeida is a perfect case in point. “He just won the Tour of Switzerland plus three stages. He will have no problem riding in support of Pogacar at the Tour. It’s easier to do that with your pockets full than when you’re empty-handed.”

Turning to Visma’s key men, Bakelants admits he has reservations about whether they can mount the same collective challenge as in previous years. Simon Yates, fresh off his Giro victory, might not be at the same intensity.

“He won the Giro, but I have a different feeling about him. Yates was able to tick off his big dream so late in his career, and it’s almost inevitable that some decompression follows. That must have done something to him, right?”

Questions linger over other pillars of the team as well, “Where has Sepp Kuss gone? Is he still the man he was two or three years ago, when he was among the top three climbers in the world? And how good is Matteo Jorgenson really? I don’t get the impression you can play him as a second leader like they did with Primoz Roglic. In 2022, Vingegaard and Roglic were able to team up and put Pogacar in a vice, and they succeeded in cracking him, but I don’t see that happening with Jorgenson.”

Visma also face concerns around Wout van Aert’s condition, after yet another setback, “Unfortunately, Wout van Aert is also dealing with his share of bad luck again. That stomach issue he had was real: he came back down from altitude specifically for the National Championships because he saw a real chance at a new title.”

That disappointment, Bakelants notes, was “yet another one.” He’s equally uncertain about Tiesj Benoot’s form. “I also don’t know where Tiesj Benoot stands. He was supposed to go for the GC in Switzerland, but that didn’t happen due to a crash. How good is he now?”

Age could also be catching up with some of Visma’s experienced core: “The riders of Visma | Lease a Bike are starting to get older. Van Aert, Benoot, Campenaerts, Kuss, Yates: they’re all past 30. Still really good riders, no doubt about it, but they’re not going to get better anymore. It’s like wine: they’re nearing the end of their drinking window. At a certain point, wine is still enjoyable, but it doesn’t improve anymore, and eventually, it gets worse.”

By contrast, UAE appear to have a more balanced mix of youth and experience, “But at UAE, Almeida, at 26 years old, is a teenager. Sivakov is 27, Narvaez 28: those guys are in the prime of their careers. Of course they also have some older riders, Wellens, Soler, Yates, but the mix is healthier.”

Ultimately, Bakelants believes it all points to one clear conclusion, “They know as well that if nothing unexpected happens, there’s an eighty percent chance that Pogacar will win the Tour again. Two years ago, he was still beatable, but the world looks different now.

“Pogacar has been able to keep building without any physical setbacks. He has been able to build month after month on top of a good previous month. It’s like at the bank: you have capital that earns interest, but you also get interest on that interest. That’s profit on top of profit.”