In an interview with HLN,
Jan Bakelants offered an
in-depth look at how this year’s Tour de France could unfold, and whether Team
Visma | Lease a Bike stand any real chance of preventing
Tadej Pogacar from
claiming a fourth yellow jersey.
“On paper, Pogacar’s and Vingegaard’s teams are evenly
matched,” Bakelants begins his analysis. “You can almost line them up one by
one: Wellens and Benoot are equals in supporting roles, Affini does on the flat
what Politt can do, Almeida and Jorgenson are the first lieutenants, the Yates
brothers can be swapped for each other… Yet I still give the advantage to Team
UAE: the momentum is clearly with Pogacar and his team.”
Bakelants points to the calm confidence running through UAE
Team Emirates.
“They ride through the peloton with such confidence, always relying on their
own strength, and everyone seems to be in excellent form. Many of their riders
have also won recently.” Almeida is a perfect case in point. “He just won the
Tour of Switzerland plus three stages. He will have no problem riding in
support of Pogacar at the Tour. It’s easier to do that with your pockets full
than when you’re empty-handed.”
Turning to Visma’s key men, Bakelants admits he has
reservations about whether they can mount the same collective challenge as in
previous years.
Simon Yates, fresh off his Giro victory, might not be at the
same intensity.
“He won the Giro, but I have a different feeling about him. Yates was able to
tick off his big dream so late in his career, and it’s almost inevitable that
some decompression follows. That must have done something to him, right?”
Questions linger over other pillars of the team as well, “Where
has
Sepp Kuss gone? Is he still the man he was two or three years ago, when he
was among the top three climbers in the world? And how good is Matteo Jorgenson
really? I don’t get the impression you can play him as a second leader like
they did with Primoz Roglic. In 2022, Vingegaard and Roglic were able to team
up and put Pogacar in a vice, and they succeeded in cracking him, but I don’t
see that happening with Jorgenson.”
Visma also face concerns around
Wout van Aert’s condition,
after yet another setback, “Unfortunately, Wout van Aert is also dealing with
his share of bad luck again. That stomach issue he had was real: he came back
down from altitude specifically for the National Championships because he saw a
real chance at a new title.”
That disappointment, Bakelants notes, was “yet another one.”
He’s equally uncertain about Tiesj Benoot’s form. “I also don’t know where
Tiesj Benoot stands. He was supposed to go for the GC in Switzerland, but that
didn’t happen due to a crash. How good is he now?”
Age could also be catching up with some of Visma’s
experienced core: “The riders of Visma | Lease a Bike are starting to get
older. Van Aert, Benoot, Campenaerts, Kuss, Yates: they’re all past 30. Still
really good riders, no doubt about it, but they’re not going to get better
anymore. It’s like wine: they’re nearing the end of their drinking window. At a
certain point, wine is still enjoyable, but it doesn’t improve anymore, and
eventually, it gets worse.”
By contrast, UAE appear to have a more balanced mix of youth
and experience, “But at UAE, Almeida, at 26 years old, is a teenager. Sivakov
is 27, Narvaez 28: those guys are in the prime of their careers. Of course they
also have some older riders, Wellens, Soler, Yates, but the mix is healthier.”
Ultimately, Bakelants believes it all points to one clear
conclusion, “They know as well that if nothing unexpected happens, there’s an
eighty percent chance that Pogacar will win the Tour again. Two years ago, he
was still beatable, but the world looks different now.
“Pogacar has been able to keep building without any physical
setbacks. He has been able to build month after month on top of a good previous
month. It’s like at the bank: you have capital that earns interest, but you
also get interest on that interest. That’s profit on top of profit.”