ANALYSIS | The three scenarios in which Tadej Pogacar could lose the Tour de France to Jonas Vingegaard

Tadej Pogacar has beaten Jonas Vingegaard in the three high mountain stages of the Tour de France so far (Col du Galiber, Pla d'Adet and Plateau de Beille). He has not been able to beat Jonas Vingegaard in the hilly days but at the time being it his his race to lose. We take a look at what it would take to, under normal circumstances, Pogacar be put into difficulties and lose the yellow jersey. 

Before the start of the Grande Boucle the opposite was said, as analyzed by CiclismoAlDia's Juan Larra. That it was in the hilly stages with not so hard climbs that Pogacar would surely be able to beat with Vingegaard due to his explosiveness, but this is not the case: the Slovenian was beaten by the Dane in his own terrain.

Team Visma | Lease a Bike has been saying since the start of the Tour that they expect Vingegaard to be at his best in the final week, but this didn't end up being the case as the defending champion had great performances right from the opening days of the race.

But after stage 16, it seems very complicated that the UAE Team Emirates rider could lose 3 minutes of advantage. We can only think of three reasons why this could happen:

There are already many riders who have been infected and have had to abandon the race sick, one of them Pogacar's teammate in UAE Team Emirates Juan Ayuso. Pogacar did get infected a few weeks prior to the race, which could be helpful if he is to suffer from it. Coincidentally, this morning two of Pogacar's teammates travelled to the stage start in separate vehicles, with Covid in the team possible being present once again.

The other reason would also have to do with a possible withdrawal or a big time loss caused by a crash, either on a descent as happened to Vingegaard at Itzulia Basque Country or in a stage finish before a sprint as happened to Primoz Roglic in this same race. Pogi knows how to move very well in the peloton, but you never know when luck might finish.

The two causes already mentioned had to do with bad luck, but not this last one. According to the calculations made by Visma (at least that is what they have been saying publicly), Jonas will be improving his performance during the race (we have already said that we do not believe that this can happen), so he would reach his peak in this third week. This could be seen as his performance on Plateau de Beille was incredible, but Pogacar's was even better.

This is coupled with the fact that Tadej Pogacar has raced the Giro d'Italia, so it would be normal that his performance would also drop in this third week. There are still four stages in which you can get a lot of time: Superdévoluy on Wednesday, Isola 2000 on Friday, the Col de la Couillole on Saturday and the Monaco-Nice time trial on Sunday. Plenty of terrain to make a difference in reality, a lot of race still remains. 

If Visma's calculations regarding Jonas are correct and Pogi ends up suffering from the Giro, will they be able to surprise and take a third consecutive Grand Boucle victory?