ANALYSIS | The three scenarios in which Tadej Pogacar could lose the Tour de France to Jonas Vingegaard
Cycling
Tadej Pogacar has beaten Jonas Vingegaard in the three high mountain stages of the Tour de France so far (Col du Galiber, Pla d'Adet and Plateau de Beille). He has not been able to beat Jonas Vingegaard in the hilly days but at the time being it his his race to lose. We take a look at what it would take to, under normal circumstances, Pogacar be put into difficulties and lose the yellow jersey.
Before the start of the Grande Boucle the opposite was said, as analyzed by CiclismoAlDia's Juan Larra. That it was in the hilly stages with not so hard climbs that Pogacar would surely be able to beat with Vingegaard due to his explosiveness, but this is not the case: the Slovenian was beaten by the Dane in his own terrain.
Team Visma | Lease a Bike has been saying since the start of the Tour that they expect Vingegaard to be at his best in the final week, but this didn't end up being the case as the defending champion had great performances right from the opening days of the race.
But after stage 16, it seems very complicated that the UAE Team Emirates rider could lose 3 minutes of advantage. We can only think of three reasons why this could happen:
1. COVID
There are already many riders who have been infected and have had to abandon the race sick, one of them Pogacar's teammate in UAE Team Emirates Juan Ayuso. Pogacar did get infected a few weeks prior to the race, which could be helpful if he is to suffer from it. Coincidentally, this morning two of Pogacar's teammates travelled to the stage start in separate vehicles, with Covid in the team possible being present once again.
2. A CRASH
The other reason would also have to do with a possible withdrawal or a big time loss caused by a crash, either on a descent as happened to Vingegaard at Itzulia Basque Country or in a stage finish before a sprint as happened to Primoz Roglic in this same race. Pogi knows how to move very well in the peloton, but you never know when luck might finish.
3. VISMA'S CALCULATIONS AND THE GIRO D'ITALIA
The two causes already mentioned had to do with bad luck, but not this last one. According to the calculations made by Visma (at least that is what they have been saying publicly), Jonas will be improving his performance during the race (we have already said that we do not believe that this can happen), so he would reach his peak in this third week. This could be seen as his performance on Plateau de Beille was incredible, but Pogacar's was even better.
This is coupled with the fact that Tadej Pogacar has raced the Giro d'Italia, so it would be normal that his performance would also drop in this third week. There are still four stages in which you can get a lot of time: Superdévoluy on Wednesday, Isola 2000 on Friday, the Col de la Couillole on Saturday and the Monaco-Nice time trial on Sunday. Plenty of terrain to make a difference in reality, a lot of race still remains.
If Visma's calculations regarding Jonas are correct and Pogi ends up suffering from the Giro, will they be able to surprise and take a third consecutive Grand Boucle victory?
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Rúben SilvaEditor-in-Chief
A founding contributor to CyclingUpToDate since its launch in January 2022, Ruben Silva has played a central role in shaping the site’s editorial direction and long-term growth. Before joining the project, he built his experience through independent blogging at Echelons Hub and by producing race previews for Ciclismo Internacional, developing a strong analytical voice rooted in daily engagement with professional cycling.
Beyond editorial work, he has been closely involved in the expansion and coordination of CyclingUpToDate’s wider network, helping establish and support sister platforms across multiple languages. This includes ongoing collaboration with CiclismoAlDia (Spanish), CiclismoAtual (Portuguese), WielrennenUpToDate (Dutch), and RadsportAktuell (German), contributing to a shared editorial vision and consistent international coverage.
He also helps oversee editorial governance across the network, setting standards for accuracy and consistency and coordinating updates or corrections when needed.
Originally from the Porto metropolitan area in Portugal, he holds a bachelor’s degree in Geography. His path into cycling journalism was shaped not through formal media training, but through independent reporting, community engagement, and sustained on-the-ground involvement in the sport.
Over the course of his career, he has conducted approximately 100 interviews across road cycling and cyclocross, ranging from one-to-one conversations and online formats to press conferences and on-site pre- and post-race coverage. His interviews include leading riders, team managers, and prominent figures within cycling media: Tadej Pogacar, Jonas Vingegaard, Mathieu van der Poel, Primoz Roglic, Wout van Aert, Joao Almeida and Tom Pidcock; managers like Patrick Lefevere and Joxean Matxin; and YouTube personality Bryan Kennedy (BKXC)...
Within 18 months of launch, he helped grow CyclingUpToDate’s English-language platform into one of the most-read cycling news websites, built entirely from the ground up. As both a professional journalist and lifelong cycling enthusiast, his focus remains on delivering accurate, timely, and well-contextualized coverage.
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- Mathieu and Wout!!! You must start in CX this winter! (hope you reading comments here...) ;-)averagecyclist12-11-2026
- Who made you site boss?Lozza12-11-2026
- This shows so well you’ve never ventured out to a cycling event and checked out spectators.Jumpyjohn12-11-2026
- I preferred the one about amateur riders and passing (perhaps to explain why he can’t ride at 220 which would probably be more effective to return to shape).Jumpyjohn12-11-2026
- Not just ManU, far worse in some minority sports ventures.Jumpyjohn12-11-2026
- From your writing it sounds like you’ve been sharing your views with people here for quite a while, quite presumouptuous for a new profile.Jumpyjohn12-11-2026
- Which is amazing given his weight and size, though, unlike in boxing and some rare instances we haven’t a clue what his fighting weight was. Anybody know why these “public” figures floated around are considered as being accurate?Jumpyjohn12-11-2026
- That’s a first point, everyone can have an off year or just stagnate before a new upward cycle. What would have been more interesting is including Skjelmose’s performance into the discussion, things have also been expected from him after several performances in the past but he hasn’t really progressed either, his TdF was basically what you would have expected but he’s 26 and been kind of stuck at this level for at least 2-3 years. Maybe he’s a late developer or maybe he needs something to change but as manager I’d be just as demanding and worried about both. Perhaps the recruitment concept was to have enough talent so at least one every year would be in shape and they’ve just been unlucky. Don’t want to rub it in but you could even say Mads lost a notch, so is it the riders or is it more to do with the team?Jumpyjohn12-11-2026
- Bingo...I was also going to say that young pretty women are obsessed Pogi fan girls... who are chasing him. All glossy "____" (blank) about Tadej. PS: You can all fill in the "blank" yourselves, whatever you prefer. The definition of glossy is: It looks unusually shiny, glazed over, watery, or vacant/unfocused.PogiSloFans12-11-2026
- Are you able to discuss ANYTHING without making a reference back to your Special 1? It’s almost as if you’re paid by his marketing team to improve his ranking in search results.Jumpyjohn12-11-2026
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